WNBA Picks
The Minnesota Lynx held on to cover for us yesterday, but unfortunately the Portland Fire blew a lead to ultimately lose the game outright and give us a 1-1 split on the day. Monday’s slate has three games, featuring the New York Liberty hosting the Seattle Storm, the Atlanta Dream vs the Las Vegas Aces, and the Chicago Sky hosting the Phoenix Mercury. I’ll also throw in tomorrow’s lone game featuring the Golden State Valkyries re-matching the Toronto Tempo.
New York Liberty (-7.5) vs Seattle Storm, O/U 182.5
Although the Liberty are well below where most people expected them to be, they’re only two points below their season average over the last three games, so this just kind of is who they are at this point, which is why I’m surprised they didn’t maneuver any trades (Kelsey Plum, anyone?) at the deadline. Seattle has also been two points below their season average over the last three, and are playing on the road where they’ve been eight points worse than at home. Seattle won the only matchup so far this year, 99-88 in Seattle, but TSI projects Liberty -11 with a total of 184. The numbers say Liberty here, so that’s the lean, but I don’t trust them enough to lay 7.5 points with them right now.
Atlanta Dream (-1.5) vs Las Vegas Aces, O/U 184.5
Atlanta has won five straight games, but has been almost four points worse than their season average over the last three, while the Aces have won two of three and are playing right at their season average lately. These teams met once in Atlanta already, with the Aces winning 85-84 in May. TSI projects Dream -1 with a total of 182.5, and looking at the last few times these teams have played this year and last, the average total score was only 157.5, so let’s play the Under here.
Bet: Under 184.5 (play to 183.5)
Chicago Sky (-1.5) vs Phoenix Mercury, O/U 179.5
Chicago has won back-to-back games and is playing 3.5 points above their season average over the last three games. Phoenix just traded for Kelsey Plum, whose status is TBD at the moment, but the Mercury have won three out of their last four and are playing 4.5 points better than their season average over the last three. These teams have split the season series so far, with Chicago winning 77-66 in Phoenix in July and the Mercury winning at home in May, 91-83. TSI projects Mercury -3 with a total of 177. I’m going to back Phoenix here, and we also have the fact that if Plum gets confirmed in, we’re going to get some serious CLV on this bet.
Bet: Mercury +1.5 (Play to -1.5)
Tuesday, August 4
Golden State Valkyries (-13.5) vs Toronto Tempo, O/U 168.5
The Valkyries just smashed Toronto yesterday by seventeen points, but they’ve still been 6.5 points below their season average over the last three games, and Toronto has been six points worse as well. Golden State is 2-0 against Toronto this season, winning by an average of 90-77. TSI projects Valkyries -12 with a total of 177, and I actually like the Over here (which is rare for a Valkyries game). The Valkyries’ last three games have averaged 175 points, and Toronto is allowing 104 points per game over its last five.
Bet: over 168.5 (Play to 170)
For all of my WNBA picks, including prop bets and live plays, be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex and turn your notifications on to get real-time updates from me on all things WNBA.
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