MLB Bullpen Betting Systems Update:
In my most recent MLB Bullpen Systems Update articles, I have noted that the recent time period surrounding the All-Star break has seen our systems go on a roll. Well, hopefully you’ve been paying attention, as we come off our best week yet in almost every angle we track. Including a +14.59 unit return on our easiest system last week, highlighted by +9.5 units in the first two days of August, our strategies for betting MLB based on key bullpen rating strategies have been cleaning up! This week’s update has the highlights, plus some of my own personal observations, and a listing of the 30 MLB teams in order of ROI when owning the bullpen rating edge this season. Enjoy!
It’s again hard to find a place to start when it comes to what has been working best lately on the bullpen systems. However, as always, I like to lead with the EASIEST system, and for those backers, since coming out of the all-star break, teams qualifying on the easiest angle have gone 129-86 for +26.72 units. This means that over the last month, this angle has brought back almost +35 units of profit! If you recall, about that time, I was urging you to exercise patience, as over the last couple of seasons, our best returns on bullpen system usage have come in the latter parts of the season. I’ve seen it before, often.
Of course, the other highlights tend to grow off of that EASIEST system. Here are the main bullet points for the last week-and-a-half, focusing on some of the more prominent systems that bettors have come to trust:
– Correlation system #3, suggesting that teams with elite bullpens and starting pitchers are good plays, went 16-3 last week for +12.63 units. That angle has been slow this year, but it is creeping back up into profitability. Why shouldn’t it? It may be the most solid foundational angle of all.
– Similarly, the IMPORTANCE OF PITCHING SYSTEM, one of my favorites since it suggests backing teams with better pitching (starter & bullpen) even though they have an equal or lesser record, has produced big since the ASB, going 30-16 for +10.74 units. This is often an underdog or small favorite backing angle, and it is the one that Bill Adee pointed out so favorably in the VSiN morning e-newsletter last Tuesday.
– Our newest angle this season, backing small favorites of -111 to -126 when they have better SM Bullpen Ratings, continues to boom, as these teams brought back another +6.3 units last week. This system is now up over +51 units for the year!
– Better bullpen underdogs, probably my favorite baseball betting system of all-time, has recovered nicely over the past few weeks to get back into respectable territory. Since the ASB, these teams have produced +13.97 units. I fully expect to end up in positive territory by the time we reach October and hopefully much sooner.
With the momentum picking up big-time into and out of the All-Star break for our bullpen systems again, I thought I would look at another view of momentum, that being how specific teams are faring recently, as in many cases, team bullpens are highly reflective of overall performance. Perhaps you noticed it last week, but AL East teams were ranked #1-#3 on my bullpen strength list. I highlighted the Red Sox and their amazing current surge, but the Rays and Yankees (who slipped to #6 this week) are also getting huge contributions from the relief corps.
It was actually a pretty strong week overall for bullpens, as the average rating went up +1.6 points across all 30 teams. Only 12 of the 30 went down. The biggest riser on the list was Houston, who has gone through tremendous bullpen volatility this season but seems to be peaking at the right time. Of course, a lot of the struggles earlier were due to Josh Hader being on the DL until late May. Since his return, he has been scintillating, with a current ERA of 1.17 and 34 strikeouts in 23 innings. He is the stud, and his ability to close games has helped the Astros ascend to the top spot in the AL West. Of course, on the opposite end of the AL West standings sits the Athletics, whose recent swoon has produced as ugly bullpen numbers as I can ever remember. Looking back at their last 20 games (4-16 record), the bullpen has combined for an ERA of 8.42 and a WHIP of 1.84. Overuse seems to be a huge factor, as they have worked 88-2/3 innings in that stretch and have fallen to #30 on my rankings.
The last thing I wanted to do for this week’s MLB Bullpen Systems update was to share the current won-lost record and units figures for the league’s 30 teams when they have enjoyed the SMP Bullpen Rating edge this season. The rankings are below. For reference, I chose to do this now because I was intrigued this past weekend by Colorado being the better bullpen in three games against the Royals. By the way, they swept that series. At the bottom, you’ll notice that some of the league’s worst offenses continue to produce the least when having bullpen edges. Not a coincidence, since bullpen strength usually shows up best when teams are holding leads.
Rank, Team, Won-Lost Units, ROI
1. TAMPA BAY: 43-20 +17.11 units, ROI: +27.2%
2. COLORADO: 7-5 +2.87 units, ROI: +23.9%
3. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 17-13 +3.96 units, ROI: +13.2%
4. MIAMI: 37-26 +8.22 units, ROI: +13.0%
5. MILWAUKEE: 63-37 +9.9 units, ROI: +9.9%
6. CINCINNATI: 22-16 +3.63 units, ROI: +9.6%
7. ATLANTA: 62-42 +7 units, ROI: +6.7%
8. BALTIMORE: 21-15 +1.84 units, ROI: +5.1%
9. ARIZONA: 26-19 +1.87 units, ROI: +4.2%
10. CHICAGO CUBS: 45-33 +0.96 units, ROI: +1.2%
11. SAN DIEGO: 50-46 -0.68 units, ROI: -0.7%
12. WASHINGTON: 1-1 -0.02 units, ROI: -1.0%
13. ST LOUIS: 9-8 -0.25 units, ROI: -1.5%
14. CLEVELAND: 44-42 -2.34 units, ROI: -2.7%
15. BOSTON: 42-37 -2.6 units, ROI: -3.3%
16. NY YANKEES: 47-36 -5.49 units, ROI: -6.6%
17. PHILADELPHIA: 28-23 -4.85 units, ROI: -9.5%
18. DETROIT: 36-36 -7.72 units, ROI: -10.7%
19. PITTSBURGH: 24-22 -5.86 units, ROI: -12.7%
20. ATHLETICS: 16-17 -4.5 units, ROI: -13.6%
21. MINNESOTA: 8-8 -2.26 units, ROI: -14.1%
22. SEATTLE: 41-41 -12.21 units, ROI: -14.9%
23. LA DODGERS: 60-37 -15.15 units, ROI: -15.6%
24. TEXAS: 27-31 -9.22 units, ROI: -15.9%
25. HOUSTON: 16-18 -7.28 units, ROI: -21.4%
26. TORONTO: 25-26 -12.14 units, ROI: -23.8%
27. KANSAS CITY: 9-13 -6.33 units, ROI: -28.8%
28. LA ANGELS: 14-25 -12.13 units, ROI: -31.1%
29. NY METS: 31-45 -27.11 units, ROI: -35.7%
30. SAN FRANCISCO: 14-25 -14.84 units, ROI: -38.1%
Without further ado, here are the various system records through about 110 games of the 2026 season that we will be tracking every day throughout. Note that on occasion I will add or delete systems based upon my own logic or regression analysis:
The EASIEST way to play the bullpen system
For the 2025 regular season, better rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher and a starting pitcher edge of at least 20 went 1138-1004 for +0.15 units and a ROI of 0%. For 2026, this EASY system is off to a slower start but has been gaining steam the last month. After a 129-86 run for +26.72 units since the All-Star break, the season-long record is 761-677 in all for -61.57 units, and a ROI of -4.3%.
This percentage ROI loss still outperforms the average bettor loss for playing every game, which for this season to date is about -7.49%. That is an “advantage” of over 3% simply by taking the team with a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating every game. Furthermore, we are winning 52.3% of our games. That said, betting almost every game is a tough strategy regardless. It’s usually the case that EASIEST isn’t always BEST, although the nearly dead-even returns on 2,142 games last year validate why I believe bullpens are so fundamental to baseball handicapping. That said, I still prefer discernment in my baseball wagering to provide for bigger edges, and at this point I can’t honestly advise playing every game on the easiest system. This is one of the main reasons we produce such a multi-faceted Analytics Report each day. Part of that report is the MLB Bullpen Systems you’ll see below. This is where you should start your handicapping routine each day.
These next angles were new to the bullpen analysis around mid-season 2025. I named them CORRELATION systems because they rely 100% on the relationship between the Steve Makinen Ratings of the starting pitcher and team bullpens. Here are the early 2026 season records of these four angles we are now regularly tracking and will continue to do so into the year:
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen HAS TO be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 48-42 for -7.48 units for a ROI of -8.3%.
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 67-104 for -41.27 units and a ROI of -24.1%! Fading these teams continues to produce and this has been our most consistent angle this season.
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the 2025 season. This represents a ROI of +5.4%. For 2026, these teams are off to a slower 210-158 start for -17.18 units and an ROI of -4.7%. This one has made a huge turnaround in recent weeks, including 16-3 for +12.63 units last week, and is starting to return to its expected performance level.
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid FADE angle! For 2026, they are off to a 122-159 start for -0.8 units. After losing about 11 units over the seven weeks, this angle has finally gone into the red for the season, it’s usual territory.
** IMPORTANCE OF PITCHING SYSTEM, BULLPEN & STARTER **
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and a ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are back over the profitability line at 184-138 for +7.77 units and a ROI of +2.4% after a 30-16, +10.74 unit run out of the break.
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record is 59-34 for -16.35 units, ROI -17.6%.
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a three-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria are 37-21 but for -14.8 units so far.
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle has been a lucrative fade system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the 2023-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. The 2026 teams are off to a 28-18 start for -13.16 units, and a ROI of -28.6%!
Better bullpen underdog teams are typically solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 232-279 for -20.22 units, but it has taken a huge step on the road to recovery since the ASB by going 41-32, +13.97 units.
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -111 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -111 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For ’26 so far, these teams are 195-120 for +52.39 units, a ROI of +16.6%. We are currently tracking these on the VSiN Analytics Reports daily, and it has added over +21 units since we have.
Worse bullpen teams usually struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 143-176 start for -25 units (ROI -7.8%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 58-80 for -21.39 units and a solid ROI of -15.5%.
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 114-132 for -2.94 units. However, it has lost -16.24 units over the last month.
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I gave it a chance in 2025 and it recovered nicely, going 259-194 for +23.34 units (ROI 5.2%). It will be on the 2026 Bullpen System Reports once again and is off to a disappointing start of 133-114 for -20.07 units. This angle also got back over +4 units last week.
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 345-258 for +35.06 units over the last three regular seasons. The 2026 results so far show teams qualifying for it with a record of 85-84 for -17.42 units. This angle also has gained solid momentum around the break, however.
Again, these simple angles can be qualified each day by utilizing the MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page on VSiN.com or easily found on the MLB Analytics Report. Keep in mind, the bullpen systems are just one small part of a very in-depth handicapping library available to readers.
These are the current key bullpen stats that have accumulated in the 2026 regular season, followed by my current 2026 Bullpen Power Ratings adjusted by me this week for performance. Along with that, I’ve listed the biggest upward/downward BP ratings teams from last week to this.
Key Bullpen Stats (2026 regular season stats through games of Sunday 8/2)
Top 6 Bullpen ERAs
1. BOSTON: 2.97
2. NY YANKEES: 3.1
3. ATLANTA: 3.44
4. SEATTLE: 3.63
5. SAN DIEGO: 3.65
6. MILWAUKEE: 3.66
Worst 6 Bullpen ERAs
30. ATHLETICS: 5.69
29. KANSAS CITY: 5.37
28. COLORADO: 4.98
27. MINNESOTA: 4.91
26. WASHINGTON: 4.9
25. CINCINNATI: 4.51
Top 6 Bullpen WHIPs
1. BOSTON: 1.15
2. ATLANTA: 1.17
3. TAMPA BAY: 1.19
4. NY YANKEES: 1.21
5. MIAMI: 1.22
6. NY METS: 1.24
Worst 6 Bullpen WHIPs
30. KANSAS CITY: 1.55
29. MINNESOTA: 1.52
28. ATHLETICS: 1.51
27. COLORADO: 1.49
26. WASHINGTON: 1.46
25. CINCINNATI: 1.45
Top 6 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
1. CLEVELAND: 10.14
2. PHILADELPHIA: 9.98
3. LA ANGELS: 9.73
4. LA DODGERS: 9.65
5. PITTSBURGH: 9.52
6. MIAMI: 9.29
Worst 6 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
30. WASHINGTON: 7.33
29. TEXAS: 7.63
28. KANSAS CITY: 7.68
27. SAN FRANCISCO: 7.74
26. ARIZONA: 7.74
25. COLORADO: 7.79
Top 6 Bullpen WHIPs Last 7 Games
1. NY METS: 0.85
2. BOSTON: 0.91
3. TAMPA BAY: 0.91
4. HOUSTON: 0.95
5. SAN DIEGO: 0.97
6. MIAMI: 1
Worst 6 Bullpen WHIPs Last 7 Games
30. COLORADO: 1.91
29. ATHLETICS: 1.86
28. MINNESOTA: 1.77
27. KANSAS CITY: 1.72
26. TEXAS: 1.64
25. ATLANTA: 1.58
I have used a manual process of analyzing daily box scores to build my Bullpen Power Ratings. In most cases, the end number is a reflection of the stats listed above, with great consideration also given to overall talent, injuries, and momentum.
Biggest Movers in SM Bullpen Power Ratings since Monday (7/27):
Biggest upward movers (PR points)
1. HOUSTON: +11 points
2. SAN FRANCISCO: +9
3. BOSTON: +8
3. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: +8
3. PITTSBURGH: +8
Biggest downward movers (PR points)
1. ATHLETICS: -10 points
2. KANSAS CITY: -7
3. NY YANKEES: -5
4. LA DODGERS: -4
5. MILWAUKEE: -3
Steve’s Current Bullpen Ratings/Ranks (as of 8/3)
Rank – Team – Bullpen PR
1. BOSTON: 41
2. TAMPA BAY: 30
3. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 28
4. HOUSTON: 22
5. MILWAUKEE: 21
6. NY YANKEES: 20
7. SAN DIEGO: 20
8. ATLANTA: 17
9. LA DODGERS: 14
10. LA ANGELS: 14
11. SEATTLE: 13
12. NY METS: 11
13. CHICAGO CUBS: 9
14. ARIZONA: 8
15. TORONTO: 7
16. DETROIT: 5
17. SAN FRANCISCO: 5
18. MIAMI: 4
19. PHILADELPHIA: 2
20. CLEVELAND: 1
21. CINCINNATI: 0
22. BALTIMORE: -1
23. MINNESOTA: -1
24. PITTSBURGH: -6
25. ST LOUIS: -10
26. TEXAS: -11
27. WASHINGTON: -16
28. COLORADO: -18
29. KANSAS CITY: -24
30. ATHLETICS: -31
These are sorted first by bullpen ranking, and then by overall team power rating.
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