Tennis Best Bets for Wednesday, February 28
It feels like the tennis season never slows down, but that’s a great thing for bettors. This fantastic sport offers all sorts of betting opportunities, which is why I’m going to be providing you with tennis best bets as often as possible. This week, the ATP and WTA Tours will be in Acapulco, Dubai, Santiago, Austin and San Diego. I’ll scan through all of the tournaments to find some winners, so make sure you check out my stuff over the next week. Also, I’d strongly suggest coming back to this story throughout the day. I try to write up as many matches as I can in advance, but it’s hard to do that in an international sport. That said, I’ll be adding picks often. You can find those at the bottom of the story, where I’ll label them as “added plays.” I’ll also throw them on the Pro Picks page. So, keep reading for my tennis picks and predictions for Wednesday, February 28.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2024 Record: 100-106 (+6.00 units)
Andy Murray vs. Ugo Humbert – Dubai
Murray earned a 4-6, 7-6 (5), 6-3 win over Denis Shapovalov in the opening round. The three-time Grand Slam champion is now looking for back-to-back wins for the first time since August. I’m not sure the Brit will ultimately get himself across the finish line against Humbert, but I do like Murray to win a set. Humbert is a very talented player, possessing a big serve and serious punch from the baseline. However, the lanky lefty can occasionally rack up unforced errors. And overall, I don’t think he has the highest tennis IQ in the world. That said, Murray’s ability to construct points and play defense will be crucial here. The 36-year-old just needs to really dial things in when it’s his turn to serve. If he does, we’ll be off to a good start with Wednesday’s tennis best bets.
Bet: Murray +1.5 Sets (-140)
Matteo Arnaldi vs. Ben Shelton – Acapulco
Shelton had some trouble getting by Dan Evans in the first round. I actually had Evans to win a set in that match, and I’m going back to the well here. I just don’t think the conditions in Mexico do Shelton any justice. This is one of the slowest playing hard-court events of the year. That gives opponents more time than usual to deal with his pace, whether it’s on his serve or from the baseline. And Arnaldi just got a look at another American with power, as he beat Taylor Fritz last round. With that in mind, Arnaldi will likely be brimming with confidence here. That’s big considering the Italian is a really solid baseliner. He should have an edge over Shelton in longer rallies, and those occur quite often in Mexico.
Bet: Arnaldi +1.5 Sets (-150)
Katie Boulter vs. Beatriz Haddad Maia – San Diego
Boulter is 7-3 in the 10 matches she has played since the start of the United Cup. The Brit also earned a straight-set win over Lesia Tsurenko in the first round here. So, Boulter has been playing some good tennis all year, and she also got off to a good start in this tournament. That makes it hard not to like her against a struggling Haddad Maia. The Brazilian is actually one of my favorites when it comes to my tennis best bets stories, but she has lost each of her last three matches. And overall, she hasn’t been very reliable from the baseline. That’s bad news for a player that needs to grind away back there to win matches.
This is really more of a fade on Haddad Maia than a bet on Boulter, but it’s nice that the Brit is playing well. And I think the on-court matchup is a decent one for Boulter. She can struggle when she faces players that can really power through her, but that shouldn’t be the case here. She might actually be the more aggressive of the two here.
Bet: Boulter ML (+120 – 1.5 units)
Federico Coria vs. Nicolas Jarry – Santiago
Coria was able to earn a victory over Alex Molcan in the first round. However, the Argentinean has looked a little out of sorts lately. He really ran out of gas in the Argentina Open a few weeks ago, and he lost in his first match in Rio de Janeiro last week. Now, Coria will have to go up against Jarry in a really difficult situation. Jarry is playing in his hometown tournament and will have a raucous crowd cheering him on. That will make him a more dangerous player than normal, and that’s really saying something. Jarry has a booming serve and a powerful baseline game, and he’s just an intimidating player to go against. If anything, his movement is his main weakness. But having the added adrenaline of playing at home will help there.
This just feels like a match in which Coria won’t have many real edges. So, I’m rolling with Jarry to win in straight sets. Jarry has won both of their previous matches in straights and both came on clay. I don’t normally like backing players to win in straight sets with my tennis best bets. However, it feels right in this situation.
Bet: Jarry -1.5 Sets (-110)
Added Plays
Facundo Diaz Acosta (-165 – 2 units) vs. Pedro Martinez [Santiago]
Arthur Fils ML (-118 – 2 units) vs. Thiago Seyboth Wild [Santiago]
