The ATP and WTA Tours are back on hard courts, and the action is about to ramp up as the road to the 2026 US Open gets underway. With the summer swing now in full flow, this stretch is all about players sharpening their timing, adjusting to the conditions, and building momentum before New York. There’s a busy slate this week, giving us plenty to dig into across both tours as the hard-court season starts to take shape. I’ll be posting my tennis best bets Monday through Friday, then I’ll roll out my championship picks on the VSiN Pro Picks page for the weekend finals. With that in mind, keep reading for my tennis best bets for the Mubadala DC Open for Wednesday, July 29.
NOTE: Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game, posts a bunch of tennis plays to the VSiN picks page. He does a great job handicapping tennis. That page is also where I post all of my Challenger-level picks + plays for all of the tournaments I’m not writing up daily.
Terence Atmane vs. Alejandro Tabilo
Atmane is coming off a tremendous 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 win over Frances Tiafoe. The American came out playing some breathtaking tennis early on, but Atmane really raised his level. He was playing some remarkable first-strike tennis, which should trouble Tabilo on Wednesday. Atmane just has a super effective combination of a big first serve and a big first ball. He should have plenty of success with his serve-plus-one in this match, and then his return game should be impactful. Tabilo has a big first serve, but his second serve is very weak. He rolls them in without really finding precise locations, and Atmane should be able to tee off when he gets looks at them.
The fact that both players are lefty should also be noted. Tabilo likes to frustrate righties by hitting his big, heavy forehand to the backhand wing, but he’ll be finding a lefty forehand when he goes across the court.
Atmane is also just dangerous on hard courts. He had a mini-breakout at this time of year last season, so he’s probably picking up some confidence as we go.
Bet: Atmane ML (-118)
Aleksandar Vukic vs. Lorenzo Musetti
Adrian Mannarino vs. Alex Michelsen
As of right now, it’s another light day for me in DC, so I’m combining two of my strong spread leans into a moneyline parlay. It starts with asking Musetti to defeat Vukic. While I’m a little nervous about Musetti’s body holding up throughout the hard-court season, this is one he should win. Vukic brings very little to the table outside of a massive first serve, but Musetti is an elite returner and a world-class baseliner. I expect him to come out on top in this one, even if it takes a tiebreaker or two to do it.
I’m then hoping Michelsen can make it three wins in a row over Mannarino. This has been a brutal tournament for American tennis thus far, but Michelsen has been staying sharp. While we haven’t seen much from other players since Wimbledon, Michelsen played some Challengers before arriving here. He was also able to find the momentum he was looking for in winning a title in Bloomfield Hills. Now, Michelsen will just need to be ready to grind against Mannarino. All the Frenchman is out there to do is counterpunch, but Michelsen has been able to deal with it before. Realistically, the American is a much better server, and his backhand is good enough to hold up when Mannarino goes cross court with his lefty forehand. Michelsen’s two-hander is his most reliable shot.
PARLAY: Musetti ML & Michelsen ML (-106 – 1.5 units)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
