MLB Bullpen Betting Systems Update:
In my last MLB Bullpen Systems Update article, I noted that we headed into the All-Star break on a roll as far as the systems were concerned. I’m thrilled to report that the momentum kept rolling on, as almost everything has won big since we came out of the break. Even better, this follows a pattern from several recent years I’ve been tracking, as our best returns seem to come later in a given season.
It’s almost hard to find a place to start when it comes to what has been working best lately on the bullpen systems. However, as always, I like to lead with the EASIEST system, since unfortunately, a lot of bettors prefer quick and easy over digging deeper with discernment. Either side of that argument has thrived lately, so I can’t knock either. For the EASIEST system backers, since coming out of the all-star break, teams qualifying on the easiest angle have gone 74-52 for +12.13 units. This means that over the last three weeks, this angle has brought back over +20 units of profit. Of course, the other highlights tend to grow off of that system. Here are the main bullet points for the last week-and-a-half, focusing on some of the more prominent systems that bettors have come to trust:
– The IMPORTANCE OF PITCHING SYSTEM, one of my favorites since it suggests backing teams with better pitching (starter & bullpen) even though they have an equal or lesser record, has produced big since the ASB, going 15-6 for +8.03 units. This is often an underdog or small favorite backing angle.
– Our newest angle this season, backing small favorites of -111 to -126 when they have better SM Bullpen Ratings, continues to boom, as these teams went 22-14 this past 10 days for +5,61 units. This system is now up over +45 units for the year.
– Better bullpen underdogs, probably my favorite baseball betting system of all-time, has recovered nicely over the past few weeks to get back into respectable territory. Since the ASB, these teams have gone 26-18 for +9.83 units. I fully expect to end up in positive territory by the time we reach October and hopefully much sooner.
With the momentum picking up big-time into and out of the All-Star break again, I want to share the reasons why I believe there is some foundation to this. #1) the teams (and bullpens) become much more defined as the season wears on, so better to gauge, and #2) better bullpens have better depth and thus greater longevity to succeed in the late months. If our recent surge continues, we will have a ton of profits to look forward to over the next 2-1/2 months.
The last subject I wanted to touch on this week is the plight of the poor Marlins. If you haven’t noticed, they go into this week’s play having lost their last 12 games. Their bullpen rating has dropped from 13 to 0 in that stretch as late-inning failures by their pitching staff have played a big role in the skid. Taking a look at their numbers during that stretch, 5.32 ERA, 26 walks in 45-2/3 innings, leading to a WHIP of 1.75. Ugly numbers indeed, defining a truly ugly stretch of baseball for a team that was in the wildcard playoff chase prior.
Without further ado, here are the various system records through the first half of the 2026 season that we will be tracking every day throughout. Note that on occasion I will add or delete systems based upon my own logic or regression analysis:
The EASIEST way to play the bullpen system
For the 2025 regular season, better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher and a starting pitcher edge of at least 20 went 1138-1004 for +0.15 units and a ROI of 0%. For 2026, this EASY system is off to a slower start but has been gaining steam the last month. After a 74-52 run for +12.13 units since the ASB, the season-long record is 706-643 in all for -76.16 units, and an ROI of -5.6%.
This percentage ROI loss still outperforms the average bettor loss for playing every game. We are winning 52/3% of our games, but betting almost every game is a tough strategy regardless. It’s usually the case that easiest isn’t always best, although the nearly dead-even returns on 2,142 games last year validate why I believe bullpens are so fundamental to baseball handicapping. That said, I still prefer discernment in my baseball wagering to provide for bigger edges, and at this point I can’t honestly advise playing every game on the easiest system. This is one of the main reasons we produce such a multi-faceted Analytics Report each day. Part of that report is the MLB Bullpen Systems you’ll see below. THIS is where you should start your handicapping routine each day.
These next angles were new to the bullpen analysis around mid-season 2025. I named them CORRELATION systems because they rely 100% on the relationship between the Steve Makinen Ratings of the starting pitcher and team bullpens. Here are the early 2026 season records of these four angles we are now regularly tracking and will continue to do so into the year:
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in ‘25. This represents an ROI of -17.1%, and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 46-37 for -2.29 units.
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 63-97 for -38.92 units and an ROI of -24.3%! Fading these teams continues to produce.
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units when not matched against the same in the 2025 season. This represents a ROI of +5.4%. For 2026, these teams are off to a slow 194-155 start for -29.81 units and a ROI of -8.5%. This one has been turning around in recent weeks but still not up to its expected performance.
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a 114-150 start for -1.99 units. After losing about 12 units over the six weeks, this angle has finally gone into the red for the season, it’s usual territory.
** IMPORTANCE OF PITCHING SYSTEM, BULLPEN & STARTER **
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For ’26, these teams are back over the profitability line at 169-128 for +5.06 units and a ROI of +1.7% after a 15-6, +8.03 unit run out of the break.
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The ’26 record is 54-31 for -14.99 units, ROI -17.6%.
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a three-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria are 37-20 but for -12.6 units so far, but did go 3-0 since the ASB.
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle has been a lucrative FADE system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the 2023-2025 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. The 2026 teams are off to a 26-17 start for -12.78 units, and a ROI of -29.7%!
Better bullpen underdog teams are typically solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce-back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 218-265 for -24.35 units, but did take a huge step on the road to recovery since the ASB by going 26-18, +9.83 units.
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -111 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -111 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For ’26 so far, these teams are 184-116 for +46.09 units, a ROI of +15.4%. We are currently tracking these on the VSiN Analytics Reports daily, and it has added over +15 units since we started.
Worse bullpen teams usually struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 138-166 start for -20.14 units (ROI -6.6%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 58-77 for -18.39 units and a solid ROI of -13.6%.
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 107-120 for +0.52 units. However, it has lost -12.78 units over the last three weeks.
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I gave it a chance in 2025, and it recovered nicely, going 259-194 for +23.34 units (ROI 5.2%). It will be on the ’26 Bullpen System Reports once again and is off to a disappointing start of 123-109 for -24.15 units. This is the only angle since the ASB that didn’t perform well, and it is getting close to being removed from our daily reports.–
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 345-258 for +35.06 units over the last three regular seasons. The 2026 results so far show teams qualifying for it with a record of 80-84 for -22.86 units. This angle also has gained some momentum around the break, however.
Again, these simple angles can be qualified each day by utilizing the MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page on VSiN.com or easily found on the MLB Analytics Report. Keep in mind, the bullpen systems are just one small part of a very in-depth handicapping library available to readers.
These are the current key bullpen stats that have accumulated in the 2026 regular season, followed by my current 2026 Bullpen Power Ratings adjusted by me this week for performance. Along with that, I’ve listed the biggest upward/downward BP ratings teams from last week to this.
Key Bullpen Stats (2026 regular season stats through games of Sunday 7/26)
Top 6 Bullpen ERAs
1. BOSTON: 3.07
2. NY YANKEES: 3.07
3. ATLANTA: 3.26
4. MILWAUKEE: 3.49
5. SEATTLE: 3.57
6. SAN DIEGO: 3.72
Worst 6 Bullpen ERAs
30. ATHLETICS: 5.55
29. KANSAS CITY: 5.24
28. MINNESOTA: 5.03
27. COLORADO: 5.02
26. WASHINGTON: 4.99
25. CINCINNATI: 4.66
Top 6 Bullpen WHIPs
1. ATLANTA: 1.14
2. BOSTON: 1.17
3. NY YANKEES: 1.19
4. TAMPA BAY: 1.2
5. MIAMI: 1.23
6. ARIZONA: 1.24
Worst 6 Bullpen WHIPs
30. KANSAS CITY: 1.54
29. MINNESOTA: 1.52
28. ATHLETICS: 1.49
27. COLORADO: 1.49
26. WASHINGTON: 1.47
25. CINCINNATI: 1.47
Top 6 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
1. CLEVELAND: 10.11
2. PHILADELPHIA: 10.06
3. LA DODGERS: 9.7
4. LA ANGELS: 9.59
5. PITTSBURGH: 9.53
6. MIAMI: 9.26
Worst 6 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
30. WASHINGTON: 7.34
29. ARIZONA: 7.68
28. KANSAS CITY: 7.72
27. TEXAS: 7.72
26. SAN FRANCISCO: 7.73
25. COLORADO: 7.83
Top 6 Bullpen WHIPs Last 7 Games
1. TAMPA BAY: 0.72
2. LA ANGELS: 0.82
3. SEATTLE: 0.95
4. NY METS: 1.04
5. BALTIMORE: 1.08
6. KANSAS CITY: 1.11
Worst 6 Bullpen WHIPs Last 7 Games
30. TORONTO: 1.89
29. ST LOUIS: 1.88
28. ATHLETICS: 1.62
27. ARIZONA: 1.56
26. COLORADO: 1.52
25. MINNESOTA: 1.52
I have used a manual process of analyzing daily box scores to build my Bullpen Power Ratings. In most cases, the end number is a reflection of the stats listed above, with great consideration also given to overall talent, injuries, and momentum.
Biggest Movers in SM Bullpen Power Ratings since two weeks ago Monday (7/13):
Biggest upward movers (PR points)
1. NY METS: +9 points
1. BOSTON: +9
3. CINCINNATI: +7
4. BALTIMORE: +6
4. TAMPA BAY: +6
4. MINNESOTA: +6
4. WASHINGTON: +6
Biggest downward movers (PR points)
1. MIAMI: -13 points
2. ATLANTA: -8
2. ATHLETICS: -8
4. ARIZONA: -7
4. CLEVELAND: -7
4. ST LOUIS: -7
Steve’s Current Bullpen Ratings/Ranks (as of 7/27)
Rank – Team – Bullpen PR
1. BOSTON: 33
2. TAMPA BAY: 27
3. NY YANKEES: 25
4. MILWAUKEE: 24
5. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 20
6. ATLANTA: 19
7. LA DODGERS: 18
8. SAN DIEGO: 17
9. LA ANGELS: 15
10. SEATTLE: 13
11. HOUSTON: 11
12. ARIZONA: 10
13. DETROIT: 7
14. NY METS: 6
15. CLEVELAND: 3
16. PHILADELPHIA: 2
17. CHICAGO CUBS: 2
18. BALTIMORE: 1
19. TORONTO: 1
20. MIAMI: -3
21. SAN FRANCISCO: -4
22. MINNESOTA: -7
23. CINCINNATI: -7
24. ST LOUIS: -8
25. TEXAS: -11
26. PITTSBURGH: -14
27. KANSAS CITY: -17
28. WASHINGTON: -18
29. COLORADO: -18
30. ATHLETICS: -21
These are sorted first by bullpen ranking and then by overall team power rating.
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