MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Wednesday, July 29.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
12:35 PM Eastern
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
While Diamondbacks starting pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez owns a 2.64 ERA, his 4.15 fielding independent with 6.3 strikeouts and 3.2 walks per nine innings points toward regression. He faces a Pirates lineup that leads the league in home scoring with 5.5 runs per game. Pirates starting pitcher Jared Jones owns a 3.72 ERA and a 3.35 fielding independent with 10.4 strikeouts and 2.5 walks per nine innings while allowing only three runs across his past four starts.
Pick: Pirates Moneyline -134
Greg’s Handicap: Pirates -147
1:10 PM Eastern
Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers
Tigers starting pitcher Tarik Skubal owns a 2.70 ERA with a strikeout-to-walk ratio of nearly 8.5 and is supported by a bullpen that ranks fifth in ERA since June 1 at 3.17. The Orioles rank second during that span with a 2.87 bullpen ERA. While Trevor Rogers may not be able to sustain his recent dominance because he pitches to a lot of contact with 7.2 strikeouts per nine innings this season, he enters having allowed only 11 total runs across his past nine starts, spanning 55 innings.
Pick: Orioles vs. Tigers Under 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.3
4:10 PM Eastern
Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres
The Padres have TBD listed as their starting pitcher, though Griffin Canning is expected to provide innings in some capacity. Canning owns a 6.97 ERA with 1.6 home runs and 4.6 walks allowed per nine innings, but his 5.23 fielding independent points toward positive regression. The Padres rank third in National League bullpen ERA at 3.72, while the Rockies have the worst bullpen ERA in the National League. Rockies starting pitcher Gabriel Hughes owns a 2.79 ERA without allowing a home run this season, but that comes in a sample of only four appearances totaling 19 1/3 innings.
Pick: Padres Moneyline -136
Greg’s Handicap: Padres -182
6:40 PM Eastern
Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Whether as the starting pitcher or a bulk reliever, the Rays are expected to have Ian Seymour factor into this game. Seymour owns a 4.64 ERA and a 4.16 fielding independent with 10.5 strikeouts and 3.3 walks per nine innings. Rangers starting pitcher MacKenzie Gore has a 4.82 ERA and a 3.76 fielding independent with 9.9 strikeouts per nine innings, but nearly all of his struggles have come on the road, where he owns a 6.02 ERA compared to a 3.61 ERA at home.
Pick: Rays Moneyline -135
Greg’s Handicap: Rays -151
7:10 PM Eastern
Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds
The Guardians offense has struggled, entering Tuesday averaging just 3.6 runs per game over its past 45 games. Cleveland faces Reds starting pitcher Brady Singer, who owns a 4.53 ERA and a 5.21 fielding independent with 1.8 home runs allowed per nine innings this season. However, he enters in great form, having allowed two earned runs or fewer in seven of his past nine starts. Guardians starting pitcher Joey Cantillo has dealt with command issues, allowing 1.1 home runs and 4.3 walks per nine innings to go along with his 4.02 ERA.
Pick: Reds Moneyline +115
Greg’s Handicap: Reds -111
7:40 PM Eastern
New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox
The Yankees entered this series having scored just over 3.3 runs per game over their previous 29 contests and now face White Sox starting pitcher Davis Martin. Martin owns a 3.49 ERA overall, but his 3.07 fielding independent points toward positive regression. He has been at his best at home, where his ERA drops to 2.34 with only one home run allowed across 50 innings. Yankees starting pitcher Cam Schlittler has been superb with a 2.07 ERA, 10.8 strikeouts, and 1.7 walks per nine innings, but he is tasked with holding down a White Sox lineup that ranks fifth in home scoring with nearly 5.1 runs per game.
Pick: White Sox Moneyline +126
Greg’s Handicap: White Sox +108
7:45 PM Eastern
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals
While Matthew Boyd’s season-long numbers suggest positive regression from his 3.81 ERA, as he owns a 3.65 fielding independent with 8.4 strikeouts and just 0.9 home runs allowed per nine innings, his strikeout rate has dropped to 6.2 per nine innings since returning from the injured list. He has also allowed more than one home run per nine innings across his six starts since returning. Cardinals starting pitcher Dustin May owns a 4.59 ERA, but his 3.16 fielding independent with only 0.6 home runs allowed per nine innings suggests he has pitched better than that ERA would indicate.
Pick: Cardinals Moneyline -110 and Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Cardinals -123 and Total 8.9
