It might feel like the US Open marks the end of the tennis season, but that couldn’t be further from the truth. We still have a few 1000-level events left — plus the ATP and WTA Finals — and one of them is taking place in Shanghai over the next two weeks. That’s right, the Rolex Shanghai Masters kicks off from Qizhong Forest Sports City Arena on Wednesday, October 1 — which means an evening start time on Tuesday, September 30 in the United States. Unfortunately, Carlos Alcaraz backed out of the event after winning a 500-level title in Tokyo. However, this field still includes Jannik Sinner, Novak Djokovic, Alexander Zverev, and pretty much everybody else. That said, this hard-court tournament has a strong field, and we’re going to be doing our best to cover it. With that in mind, keep reading for some Day 1 Shanghai tennis best bets. I’m also dropping some Shanghai tournament futures at the bottom.
NOTE: Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game, posts a bunch of tennis plays to the VSiN picks page. He does a great job handicapping tennis. That page is also where I post all of my Challenger-level picks + plays for all of the tournaments I’m not writing up daily.
David Goffin vs. Alexandre Muller
Muller was scorching hot to start the 2025 season, but he wasn’t able to maintain his level. After a 9-3 start, Muller is now 16-23 on the year, giving him a worse winning percentage (41.0%) than he had a year ago (52.4%). The Frenchman has also been especially cold since the start of the summer. Since going to the quarterfinals at a clay-court event in Hamburg, Muller is 4-10 with some lopsided losses mixed in.
It’s just hard not to feel like Muller’s body couldn’t handle a full season of the types of matches he played to start the year. He was engaged in a lot of physical baseline wars in hot, humid conditions. And speaking of conditions, Muller is a player that is at his best on slower surfaces. Well, this tournament is going to play quicker than most hard-court events, as the courts are fast and they’re now using balls that will favor power. Of course, Goffin isn’t a power player, nor is he in good form himself. But I like the way the veteran matches up here, as he’s a good returner that should work himself into a bunch of Muller’s service games. Then, the faster speeds will give Goffin a shot at racking up some easier holds himself. Also, from the back of the court, Goffin’s down-the-line backhand should be a weapon. He can rush Muller’s forehand, leading to unforced errors or short, punishable balls.
This is also a match in which it looks like there’s some sharp support for Goffin, according to our VSiN betting splits. Muller has received most of the bets at DraftKings Sportsbook, but he has gone from -165 to -120 there.
Bet: Goffin ML (-107 – 1.5 units)
Sebastian Ofner vs. Luca Nardi
Ofner hasn’t had any recent success on hard courts. In fact, he’s 0-5 on this surface over the last 52 weeks. However, it still feels a little crazy to give him less than a 50% shot at beating Nardi. While the Italian is a little more consistent and solid than Ofner, the Austrian has a much bigger serve, along with the ability to pound big, flat shots from the back of the court. In these quicker conditions, that should be valuable.
Ofner is more likely to race through his service games. And while the Austrian isn’t a great returner, Nardi’s hold percentage is only 70.0% this season. He lacks pop with the first serve. That means that if Ofner just stays aggressive, he should break through and give himself some chances to break.
It just isn’t hard to envision this being a match in which Ofner will bully Nardi around a bit, so it’s worth a shot at plus-money odds.
Bet: Ofner ML (+125)
Zhizhen Zhang vs. Sebastian Baez
This one is pretty straightforward. Baez has been as high as No. 18 in the ATP rankings, but his 80-47 record on clay is largely responsible for his success at this level. On hard courts, the Argentinean is a miserable 22-53, including a 2-14 record on the surface over the last 52 weeks. Meanwhile, Zhang returned from a lengthy injury layoff in September, so he’s not quite 100% yet. But he has proven to be dangerous on hard courts. Zhang just has a much bigger serve than Baez, and he’s also more likely to rack up winners in these conditions. On top of that, Zhang is Chinese and will be playing in front of the Shanghai crowd. That should tilt the scales in his favor even more.
Bet: Zhang ML (-125 – 2 units)
Rolex Shanghai Masters Tournament Futures
Jannik Sinner To Win (-125 – 2.5 units): This is undoubtedly the boring pick, but Sinner is the defending Shanghai champion and just played some decent tennis in Beijing. With Alcaraz not in the field, that’s really all you need to know in order to fire up a play on the Italian. Until Alcaraz beefed up his first serve and started cutting down on mistakes, Sinner was viewed as the best hard-court player in the world — and it really wasn’t even close. Well, Sinner is still head and shoulders above everybody in this field, and he happens to have a reasonable draw. Anything short of a title run here would be a massive failure.
Alex de Minaur To Reach Finals (TBD): I haven’t seen odds for de Minaur to win the top half of the draw, but I’ll be looking up until the first matches begin on Wednesday, October 1. And if I can’t find it, I’ll put 0.25 units on de Minaur to win the tournament at 16-1 odds, hoping to either hedge or cash out in the later stages of the tournament. Realistically, with Sinner and Djokovic in the bottom half of the draw, there’s a real opening for somebody to make a deep run in this event. And while there are players with more firepower than de Minaur, there’s nobody more reliable. I can’t trust Zverev, Daniil Medvedev, and Stefanos Tsitsipas right now, so de Minaur is almost the play by a process of elimination.
