Tennis best bets and predictions for Friday, July 25th:
We’re officially on the road to the 2025 US Open. Over the next couple of weeks, some of the top players in the world will be competing in some massive hard-court tournaments. This week, I’m focusing on the action in Washington DC, where the men and women are playing in a 500-level event: the Mubadala Citi DC Open. Keep reading for my tennis best bets for Friday, July 25th, but make sure you also check out the Pro Picks page. That’s where you’ll find my picks for some of the smaller events — including the random clay-court tournaments.
I do occasionally add picks throughout the day, as I like to see how odds are moving. So, keep checking the picks page every couple of hours if you want more of my action. That’s also where you’ll find picks from Gill Alexander, who does great work handicapping tennis on A Numbers Game. You can watch Gill analyze tennis Monday to Friday from 10:00 am to noon ET. That said, if you like tennis, you might want to consider becoming a VSiN Pro.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2025 Record: 917-889-1 (+47.65 units)
Corentin Moutet vs. Daniil Medvedev
Brandon Nakashima vs. Alex de Minaur
Moutet ended up beating Daniel Evans in straight sets yesterday, which ended up hurting me quite a bit. It was a good performance from Moutet, who was really smart about targeting the Evans forehand. Moutet was also precise when he powered up and looked for winners. However, I don’t see him finding similar success against Medvedev. The Russian is much bigger and way more mobile than Evans, and he’s just not going to give Moutet anything easy. Medvedev is also going to use his length to get into the Moutet serve somewhat regularly, and I like what I have seen from the former world No. 1 as a server this week. Medvedev made 61% of his first serves against Reilly Opelka in the opening round, then he upped that number to 76% against Yibing Wu. If he’s serving even close to the way he did on Thursday, he should cruise against Moutet.
To get a better price on Medvedev, I’m pairing him with de Minaur. Nakashima is undoubtedly a dangerous player on hard courts, as he has a massive first serve and a big baseline game. However, de Minaur is one of the best returners in the world, and he should have the edge pretty much everywhere outside of serving. He also just beat Jiri Lehecka, who is like a better version of Nakashima. That said, the Australian should be well prepared for this one.
PARLAY: Medvedev ML & de Minaur ML (-118 – 1.5 units)
Anna Kalinskaya vs. Clara Tauson
Some early sharp money came in on Kaiinskaya, according to our VSiN tennis betting splits page. Tauson opened as a -175 favorite, but she’s down to -120 at DraftKings despite most of the action being on her. That, combined with how this matchup has gone in the past, makes it easy for me to jump on Kalinskaya.
These two have played twice in the last two years, with Kalinskaya whooping Tauson 6-1, 6-2 in Rome in 2024 and the Dane avenging that defeat with a 6-3, 7-6 (10) win in Wimbledon a few weeks ago. However, that meeting at the All England Club really could have gone either way, and I like Kalinskaya’s chances on a slower hard court.
These players are both capable of striking the ball brilliantly, but Kalinskaya is a little better as a mover. Tauson also looked out of sorts in a 3-6, 7-5, 6-4 win over Caroline Dolehide last round, but Kalinskaya has been tremendous since arriving in the nation’s capital. She beat Kamila Rakhimova 6-2, 6-3 in the Round of 32, then she backed it up with a 6-4, 6-0 beatdown over Magda Linette.
I just think recent form favors Kalinskaya a little bit, plus the conditions should give her a better chance of dealing with Tauson’s power.
Bet: Kalinskaya ML (+105)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
