Tennis best bets and predictions for Tuesday, July 29th:
This week, the ATP and WTA Tours are in Canada for the 2025 National Bank Open presented by Rogers. The men are stationed in Toronto for their Masters 1000 event, and the women are playing their 1000-level tournament in Montreal. Unfortunately, Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner, Novak Djokovic and Aryna Sabalenka are a few of the big names that opted to rest up for Cincinnati. However, these fields are still rather loaded, so we’re looking forward to soaking in the action up north. Make sure you’re coming back to VSiN, where I’ll be posting daily write-ups on the action as often as I can. That continues with the action on Tuesday, July 29th.
Make sure you also check out the picks page every couple of hours if you want more of my action. I occasionally post some extra picks there, including my picks for smaller tournaments and Challenger-level events. That’s also where you’ll find picks from Gill Alexander, who does great work handicapping tennis on A Numbers Game. You can watch Gill analyze tennis Monday to Friday from 10:00 am to noon ET. That said, if you like tennis, you might want to consider becoming a VSiN Pro.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2025 Record: 933-902-1 (+50.27 units)
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs. Holger Rune
Rune is better than Mpetshi Perricard at pretty much everything, but the Frenchman has him beat as a server. Realistically, Mpetshi Perricard might have the best serve on the planet, and that alone should be enough for him to drag Rune to two tiebreakers. Rune just did some work with Andre Agassi, and one would think the two of them spent a lot of time talking about return positioning. Compared to some of the other top players in the world, Rune’s return game is a major weakness. So, there’s a lot the Dane can take from a week with Agassi, who is one of the greatest returners in tennis history. I just don’t think we’re going to see it pay immediate dividends.
Rune also hasn’t played all that well since winning a title in Barcelona, and he hasn’t been on the court a lot either. We last saw him at Wimbledon, where he lost an opening-round match against Nicolas Jarry.
I just think that it’ll be hard for Rune to cover if he wins this match, and I also wouldn’t be surprised if the Frenchman upsets him. Rune occasionally tosses away service games, which is something you can’t do against an elite server.
Bet: Mpetshi Perricard +2.5 Games (-120)
Jenson Brooksby vs. Corentin Moutet
Not only do I not like backing players coming off deep runs, but sometimes I’ll look to fade them. And that’s exactly what I’m doing with Moutet in his opening-round meeting with Brooksby. Moutet, a lucky loser in DC last week, played six matches on his way to an appearance in the semifinals. By the end of the tournament, the Frenchman looked like he was running on fumes, and he also happened to be a little banged up throughout.
I just don’t trust Moutet’s body in a match against Brooksby, who has the ability to make matches very physical. The American is elite when it comes to defending the baseline, so he’s going to test Moutet’s legs regularly. I also like the way Brooksby returns, so I can see him getting into the Moutet serve after a couple of looks at it. Moutet puts a lot of spin on his serve, and he can be tricky to figure out. But Brooksby should be able to do it. Brooksby was also serving very well before losing to Yoshihito Nishioka in the nation’s capital, so I trust him to turn it back on with the ball on his racquet.
I jumped on this play early and the line moved against me, and I have a bigger play on it than usual. I’d still play it at the current number, but if you’re worried about the line movement then just go a little smaller than I did.
Bet: Brooksby ML (-125 – 1.5 units)
Roman Safiullin vs. Casper Ruud
Ruud took a little over a month off to rest his knee after the clay season, as he was banged up towards the end of it. Well, when he returned at a clay event in Gstaad two weeks ago, he didn’t look great. Ruud barely beat Dominic Stricker 7-5, 7-6 (6) in a tight two-set battle, then he lost in pretty convincing fashion against Juan Manuel Cerundolo in the quarterfinals. Well, if Ruud looked that shaky on clay, is there any reason to trust him on faster hard courts?
Ruud might be able to play his way into form over the next couple of weeks, as that’s what great players do. However, in an early-round meeting with a ball-basher like Safiullin, I’m not sure a straight-set win can be expected.
Safiullin hasn’t had the best season himself, but he’s going to come into this match with no pressure or expectations. That makes a player with his type of firepower dangerous, and I can see him making Ruud uncomfortable with his ability to rush opponents.
Bet: Safiullin +1.5 Sets (-137 – 1.5 units) & Safiullin ML (+210 – 0.5 units)
Victoria Mboko vs. Sofia Kenin
I feel like I’m always talking myself into Kenin, but it’s hard to feel good about her game right now. Since losing a close match against Madison Keys at Roland Garros, the American is just 4-4 with a couple of brutal losses. And the most brutal of the bunch came at the hands of Taylor Townsend in Washington DC, where the former world No. 4 lost 6-3, 6-0 in an absolute dud of a performance. Now, it’s hard to buy into Kenin’s ability to keep things close against one of the fastest-rising stars in professional tennis today.
Mboko has a big serve, a massive backhand and some good footwork to go along with that. She also has a really good head on her shoulders for a younger player. It won’t be long before the Canadian finds a spot in the WTA’s Top 25, and I just don’t see any reason she can’t beat Kenin in front of her home fans.
Nerves are really the only thing that can keep Mboko from winning this type of match, but it helps that she got her feet wet with a win over Kimberly Birrell in the Round of 128.
Bet: Mboko ML (-163 – 1.5 units)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
