Tennis best bets and predictions for Wednesday, July 30th:
This week, the ATP and WTA Tours are in Canada for the 2025 National Bank Open presented by Rogers. The men are stationed in Toronto for their Masters 1000 event, and the women are playing their 1000-level tournament in Montreal. Unfortunately, Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner, Novak Djokovic and Aryna Sabalenka are a few of the big names that opted to rest up for Cincinnati. However, these fields are still rather loaded, so we’re looking forward to soaking in the action up north. Make sure you’re coming back to VSiN, where I’ll be posting daily write-ups on the action as often as I can. That continues with the action on Wednesday, July 30th.
Make sure you also check out the picks page every couple of hours if you want more of my action. I occasionally post some extra picks there, including my picks for smaller tournaments and Challenger-level events. That’s also where you’ll find picks from Gill Alexander, who does great work handicapping tennis on A Numbers Game. You can watch Gill analyze tennis Monday to Friday from 10:00 am to noon ET. That said, if you like tennis, you might want to consider becoming a VSiN Pro.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2025 Record: 933-902-1 (+50.27 units)
Yosuke Watanuki vs. Frances Tiafoe
Back in March, Watanuki and Tiafoe met in the Round of 32 at the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells. In that match, Watanuki stunned Tiafoe in a 6-4, 7-6 (6) victory. At the time, that looked like it could be a season-changing win for Watanuki. Unfortunately for him, nothing ever came from it. He has continued to have an up-and-down year, and he has mostly competed at the Challenger level. However, I do think this is a matchup that suits Watanuki quite well, so I’m playing him to win a set. I’m also sprinkling the moneyline.
It’s just hard to overlook the fact that both of the previous meetings between these two have been competitive. When the two met in Miami in 2023, Tiafoe had to battle for a 6-7 (5), 7-6 (3), 6-4 win. Then, Watanuki ended up beating him in Indian Wells. There simply hasn’t been a wide gap between them, despite the fact that Tiafoe has a much better ranking.
Watanuki is also getting Tiafoe at an interesting time, as the American just suffered a disappointing quarterfinal exit in his home tournament in DC. Tiafoe could be a little deflated after that result, which is something we have seen from him before. I’ll also add that Watanuki spent some time with coach Wayne Ferreira earlier in the year. Ferreira was Tiafoe’s coach for years, so Watanuki is probably just very familiar with the American’s game.
Let’s just hope Watanuki has a decent serving day. He has an unorthodox motion and that is a part of his game that can get away from him occasionally. Against Tiafoe, he’ll need to avoid long, grueling service games.
Bet: Watanuki +1.5 Sets (-115 – 1.5 units) & Watanuki ML (+275 – 0.5 units)
Pablo Carreno Busta vs. Arthur Fils
Fils hasn’t played since the French Open, so he’ll be working off some rust in his return from a stress fracture in his back. However, this is a matchup he should be able to handle at less than 100% health. Carreno Busta is only 4-9 at the ATP level since the start of 2025, and his break percentage is a miserable 15.2%. Well, if the Spaniard isn’t getting into Fils’ service games, it’s hard to imagine this being a competitive match.
Fils is simply a better server, returner and baseliner, and I expect him to find his game at some point in this match — even if the first set is a little rough. Honestly, Fils was able to cover a 3.5-game spread against Carreno Busta in Barcelona earlier this year, and that was a home match for the Spaniard. The conditions were also favorable for Carreno Busta. If he couldn’t cover there, I don’t see him doing it here.
Bet: Fils -3.5 Games (-123)
Maria Sakkari vs. Jessica Pegula
Sakkari is starting to find her game. In Washington DC, the Greek star earned straight-set wins over Katie Boulter and Emma Navarro, and she was also extremely competitive in a loss against a red-hot Emma Raducanu. The 30-year-old now has a tough matchup against Pegula, the back-to-back National Bank Open champion, but she’s getting the American at a good time. Pegula lost in straight sets against Elisabetta Cocciaretto at Wimbledon, then she got upset by eventual champion Leylah Fernandez in her first match in the nation’s capital last week. There’s just not a lot that suggests Pegula’s form is in a good spot right now, but you can definitely make that case for Sakkari.
What I’m most interested in seeing is the Sakkari serve. She has had a hard time holding in 2025, but she has looked like a different player with the ball on her racquet over the last few weeks. Some equipment changes seem to have helped there. Well, if Sakkari serves well against Pegula, this should be a really good match. We all know Sakkari has the baseline game to hang with the American.
Also, while Pegula has won three straight matches against Sakkari, the Greek player does have five wins over the American. So, she should know that she can make this a match if she’s just playing some solid tennis.
Bet: Sakkari +1.5 Sets (-143 – 1.5 units) & Sakkari ML (+200 – 0.5 units)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
