Tennis best bets for Friday, June 20th – Queen’s Club, Halle & Berlin
We’re in the short grass-court portion of the 2025 tennis season. That means we’re not too far away from Wimbledon, which is one of the best events in sports. However, we do have three 500-level events on the calendar for this week, so it’s time to lock in now. Some of the top players on the ATP Tour are at Queen’s Club for the HSBC Championships, and others are in Halle for the Terra Wortmann Open. Meanwhile, most of the women are in Germany for the Berlin Tennis Open. With all of that out of the way, let’s get into some tennis picks for Friday, June 20th.
I’d also strongly suggest checking the Pro Picks page throughout the day. That’s where Gill Alexander will be posting his best bets. Gill does a tremendous job handicapping tennis on A Numbers Game, which is a staple of our live VSiN programming. Also, while I try to write up as many of my plays as possible, I do occasionally add things to that page throughout the day. That’s also where I post plays for smaller ATP and WTA events, and my Challenger-level plays live exclusively on that page.
Alex Michelsen vs. Daniil Medvedev – Halle
I have been having some success backing Michelsen in Halle. The American has a great game for grass, and we saw that in wins over Francisco Cerundolo and Stefanos Tsitsipas. And while a meeting with Medvedev represents a big step up in competition, I still think Michelsen has a shot at winning.
Medvedev has looked good in this tournament thus far, earning straight-set wins over Daniel Altmaier and Quentin Halys. However, he barely beat Adrian Mannarino in ‘s-Hertogenbosch, and he followed that close win up with a loss to Reilly Opelka. It just continues to feel like Medvedev is fading before our eyes. His hold percentage is a little better than it was in 2024, but it’s still down at 81.0%. That was a number that was in the high 80s when he was in his prime. Also, players have way more belief that they can go out there and beat him, which is part of why he finds himself losing to lesser players more often.
In this match, I just like Michelsen’s ability to go bigger than Medvedev from the baseline, and I love that he’s one of the few players on tour that can go toe to toe with the Russian from the backhand wing. He’ll be happy to trade two-handers with Medvedev as often as possible, and I like him to redirect some of those for down-the-line winners.
If Michelsen just serves well in this match, there’s no reason he can’t go out and force a decider — or just win outright. These prices aren’t showing the American much respect, but he deserves it on this surface.
Bet: Michelsen +1.5 Sets (-134 – 1.5 units) & Michelsen ML (+205 – 0.5 units)
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev – Halle
I’m not sure Zverev should be a 4.5-game favorite against an aggressive player with legitimate baseline firepower. I know Cobolli doesn’t have a ton of grass-court experience, but wins over Joao Fonseca and Denis Shapovalov this week show that he’s a quick learner. If Cobolli just has a decent day hitting his spots with his serve, he should work his way deep into sets in the event he loses in straights. But I also think there’s a legitimate shot he wins one of them. Keep an eye on the forehands here. Cobolli has a big forehand, and he’s going to be aggressive in attacking Zverev’s forehand with it. Well, the German might have had a great forehand day against Lorenzo Sonego on Thursday, but will he do it two matches in a row? The Zverev forehand is extremely inconsistent, so I have my doubts.
Cobolli is also 17-11 against the spread this season, according to the matches tracked by Tennislytics. Zverev is just 20-24 in that database. The German also failed to cover against Sonego last match.
Of course, you can easily point to the fact that Zverev beat Cobolli 6-2, 7-6 (4), 6-1 at Roland Garros. But that’s Zverev’s best surface, plus one that makes his forehand a lot better. On grass, Cobolli should have a much easier time holding serve, and he should be able to rush Zverev.
Bet: Cobolli +4.5 Games (-128)
Elena Rybakina vs. Aryna Sabalenka – Berlin
I’m taking a shot on Rybakina to beat Sabalenka on Friday. Rybakina has won two of the last three matches between these two, and two of those wins came last year. Both of the victories also happened to come on fast hard courts, and the loss was in Madrid. That’s a quicker clay-court event, but Rybakina simply isn’t as good on clay as Sabalenka is. In extremely fast conditions, Rybakina’s ability to serve to spots is just extremely dangerous, whether that’s her racking up aces or just giving her early advantages in points. And I think she’ll be able to do that on the grass here.
Sabalenka didn’t look all that sharp in her win over Rebeka Masarova last match, winning 6-2, 7-6 (6) in a match that featured a competitive second set. And overall, Sabalenka is just 29-17 on grass in her career. That 63.0% winning percentage is the lowest she has on any surface, by far.
Sabalenka just isn’t proven on this surface, even if it is one that should bring out the best in her game eventually. So, with a big plus-money number out there on Rybakina, this feels like a risk worth taking. Rybakina is a former Wimbledon champion and will feel good about her chances. She’s also getting Sabalenka at the right time, as the Belarusian is coming off a rough loss in the Roland Garros final and could be in her feelings a bit.
Bet: Rybakina ML (+150)
2025 Record: 774-756-1 (+25.42 units)
