Dubai, Doha, Rio de Janeiro tennis best bets for February 17th
This week, the top women in the world are in Dubai for the Dubai Duty Free Championships. This is the second 1000-level WTA event of the season, and I’ll be writing up tennis best bets for this one all week. Meanwhile, the men are scattered all over the globe, as there are 500-level tournaments in Doha and Rio de Janeiro. I’ll also be writing up best bets for those tournaments, so you’ll find a lot of my plays in these daily predictions stories. That said, keep reading for my best bets for Monday, February 17th, and check out the picks page for all of my action for smaller tournaments and Challengers.
I’m going to quickly hit on some of my favorite picks below, and I occasionally add some picks throughout the day. Schedules can get wonky with the international nature of the sport, and I also like to see how odds are moving. That said, keep checking the picks page every couple of hours if you want more of my picks.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
Peyton Stearns vs. Ons Jabeur – Dubai
Elina Avanesyan vs. Mirra Andreeva – Dubai
I don’t love any individual sides or totals for Monday’s Dubai schedule, but I like a parlay that calls for Jabeur and Andreeva to win. Stearns can be a tough player to beat when she’s on, as she packs a lot of punch from the baseline. She’s also a fiery competitor. However, Stearns’ hold percentage in 2025 is just 63.4%. For a player that clearly has a significant amount of arm talent, she’s just not capable of stringing together holds easily. Well, that’s going to be an issue against Jabeur, who is very dangerous as a returner. Only 10 players can top the Tunisian’s 39.8% break percentage in 2025, but Jabeur has played more matches than most. So, her number is almost more impressive given the sample. And overall, Jabeur is a player that can mix things up from the baseline and really make opponents uncomfortable. That could be problematic for Stearns, who is extremely mistake-prone from the baseline.
As for Andreeva, it’s just hard not to like the matchup for her. Avanesyan is a defensive-minded player. She likes to win matches by chasing down everything along the baseline, making opponents hit a ton of extra balls and simply out-hustling them. However, Andreeva can win extended rallies with the best of them. She’s one of the fastest players on tour. However, Andreeva is also a much better server than Avanesyan, and she’s probably a better returner. On top of that, the 17-year-old’s backhand will be the biggest weapon on the court here.
PARLAY: Jabeur ML & Andreeva ML (-105 – 1.5 units)
Felipe Alves vs. Alexander Shevchenko – Rio de Janeiro
Not only is Shevchenko 1-4 since the start of the 2025 season, but he’s also just 12-16 in ATP-level clay-court matches in his career. On top of that, Shevchenko comes into this event after a first-round loss on the hard courts in Delray Beach. That said, this will be his first clay-court match since last year’s Paris Olympics. Meanwhile, Alves will have the home crowd as a Brazilian playing in Rio, and he’s more or less a clay-court specialist. So, he’s going to be way more comfortable with the conditions, and that should go a long way here.
Shevchenko also happens to be holding at just a 63.9% clip this season, which is outrageously low considering he has only played hard-court matches. So, it’s hard to imagine him finding a way to breeze through his service games. Well, Alves actually has the ability to go pretty big as a server, so he can really do some damage if he’s hitting some spots in this match. I also think Alves will have a decent edge from the baseline. At the very least, Alves is going to dictate play and force Shevchenko to come up with the goods.
Bet: Alves ML (-143 – 1.5 units)
Francisco Comesana vs. Gustavo Heide – Rio de Janeiro
Heide is a player that really stands out when watching Challengers. In fact, I tweeted a few weeks ago that I’m interested in seeing what he can do on the Golden Swing, so I’m more or less putting my money where my mouth is with this play. Comesana is a good clay-court player at the Challenger level, but he is 0-6 in tour-level matches on the surface. So, as far as draws go, this one is extremely doable for Heide.
Comesana is going to fight extremely hard in this match. He’s a relentless competitor and he puts a lot of pressure on opponents with his ability to hit with heavy topspin and make every point an absolute grind. But Heide is a unique clay-court talent. The 22-year-old is big and understands the little nuances of playing on the dirt. However, he also happens to have a big serve and impressive raw power from the baseline. So, he’s going to have a much easier time hitting through the slow conditions in Rio and finding winners.
Heide is also an exciting Brazilian prospect, so it’s highly likely he’ll have some crowd support here. That should help him even up the head-to-head series with Comesana, who won 6-3, 7-5 when they played in Santa Cruz in 2023.
Bet: Heide ML (+103)
Note: I added another 0.5 units to this at +128. My total play is now 1.5 units to win 1.67 units.
Dubai, Doha and Rio de Janeiro Tournament Futures
Iga Swiatek To Win Dubai (+430) – I don’t find it fun giving out the same player two weeks in a row, but Swiatek should make another deep run this week — and you’re going to see her as a future suggestion a lot more over the next few months. The conditions in Dubai are a little faster than the ones in Doha, but that shouldn’t be a death sentence for the five-time Grand Slam champion. Overall, the speeds in Dubai this week should be very similar to the ones we saw in Melbourne, and Swiatek just had the best Australian Open run of her career. Also, Jelena Ostapenko is in the other half of the draw. So, if Swiatek plays well this week, we shouldn’t have to worry about the Queen Slayer until the final. But I don’t see Ostapenko going too far this week. She’s due for something of a letdown. The real player to worry about is Aryna Sabalenka. But if Swiatek and Sabalenka meet in the final, we should be able to make some smart use of a +430 ticket.
Alex de Minaur To Win Doha (+850 – 0.5 units) – I’m not sure I see de Minaur actually winning this tournament, especially if he runs into Carlos Alcaraz in the final again. However, much like the the event in Rotterdam, de Minaur’s half of the draw is extremely manageable. With that in mind, he should be able to go very deep at this event. De Minaur is going to be a nightmare to play against in slower conditions, and he has done good work adding some pop to his serve and forehand. That should mean that he’ll have the firepower required to go on the offensive himself. Also, if Alcaraz gets bounced before the final, there’s a shot de Minaur can win this. I’d even give him a chance against Novak Djokovic, as the Australian beat him at the United Cup in 2024 and played him close in Monte-Carlo a few months later.
Lorenzo Musetti To Win Rio de Janeiro (11-1 – 0.5 units) – All of the buzz heading into this event will be about Joao Fonseca, who finds himself in the same half of the draw as Alexander Zverev. The winner of this tournament can easily be one of those two. However, the top half of the draw is a lot tougher than the bottom, so I’m taking a shot with somebody in the lower half. And I really like Musetti’s chances. Unfortunately, the Italian suffered a leg injury that forced him out of action in Buenos Aires last week, and he was playing some good tennis before that. However, Musetti’s name being in the draw at this point means he’s probably healthy enough to play. And if that’s the case, he should be able to compete for a title. Musetti is an awesome clay-court mover and has the ability to hit with shape or power. He’s also steadier than most of the players in this draw when it comes to serving and returning. Also, unlike the de Minaur play, Musetti doesn’t necessarily need draw luck later in the event. He beat Zverev in the Paris Olympics last year, and he’s capable of earning another three-set win over him again — especially on this surface.
Additional Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success in the past. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day. My 250-level and Challenger-level action will live exclusively on the Pro Picks page.
