Tennis best bets for Monday, June 16th – Queen’s Club, Halle & Berlin
We’re in the short grass-court portion of the 2025 tennis season. That means we’re not too far away from Wimbledon, which is one of the best events in sports. However, we do have three 500-level events on the calendar for this week, so it’s time to lock in now. Some of the top players on the ATP Tour are at Queen’s Club for the HSBC Championships, and others are in Halle for the Terra Wortmann Open. Meanwhile, most of the women are in Germany for the Berlin Tennis Open. With all of that out of the way, let’s get into some tennis picks for Monday, June 16th. I’ll also drop some futures at the bottom of the article.
I’d also strongly suggest checking the Pro Picks page throughout the day. That’s where Gill Alexander will be posting his best bets. Gill does a tremendous job handicapping tennis on A Numbers Game, which is a staple of our live VSiN programming. Also, while I try to write up as many of my plays as possible, I do occasionally add things to that page throughout the day. That’s also where I post plays for smaller ATP and WTA events, and my Challenger-level plays live exclusively on that page.
Daniel Evans vs. Frances Tiafoe
Evans probably doesn’t have many good years left in him, but this is a matchup he has enjoyed in the past. Tiafoe does have the edge in the career head-to-head, but Evans beat him in Washington D.C. in 2023. That was Tiafoe’s home tournament. Evans also took a set off Tiafoe in a tight three-set loss in Almaty last year. Evans has now won at least a set in six of the last seven matches these two have played, and the one in which he didn’t was a match the Brit had to retire from in Vienna two years ago.
Of course, Tiafoe is in much better form coming into this one, as the American just went to the quarterfinals at Roland Garros. So, he’s undeniably coming into this tournament with more momentum, and his advantage in overall athleticism is quite big. But Tiafoe is just 2-3 on this surface over the last 52 weeks. He also just made a great run on slower clay courts, so his game might not translate all that quickly to the faster stuff in London. Well, Evans grew up on this surface and should be able to use that to his advantage here.
Evans’ ability to slice the ball and create tricky angles for his opponents has always played well on this surface, and Tiafoe is a player that could struggle with the types of balls he gets from Evans. He has an unorthodox game and can be thrown off somewhat easily. Evans also happened to play very well in ‘s-Hertogenbosch last week. After making it through qualifying, Evans beat Rinky Hijikata and then lost a very close match against Ugo Humbert. I think he’ll build off that and give Tiafoe a run for his money.
Bet: Evans +1.5 Sets (+105 – 1.5 units) & Evans ML (+330 – 0.5 units)
Cameron Norrie vs. Jakub Mensik
We haven’t seen the best of Mensik lately. The Czech phenom has lost three of his last four matches, with one of the defeats coming against Henrique Rocha and the other coming against Vitaliy Sachko. Both losses were perplexing when considering Mensik’s talent. On top of that, Mensik has only played seven grass-court matches in his career, and he’s 2-5 in those seven matches. So, why do I like him to beat Norrie, an established grass-court player? It’s easy: the serve.
Mensik undoubtedly has his flaws, but he has a hold percentage of 87.2% since the start of the 2025 season. He’s just incredibly tough to beat in server-friendly conditions, which is why he was able to win a 1000-level tournament in Miami — beating Novak Djokovic in the final. Well, the conditions at the Queen’s Club are definitely favorable for a big server. Meanwhile, Norrie’s hold percentage is down at 76.4%, which is a huge problem when compared to Mensik’s.
Norrie is going to get into some of Mensik’s service games, and he’s going to frustrate the 19-year-old with his ability to grind along the baseline. That’s just what Norrie does. But I ultimately just think that Mensik is going to win this match by crunching serves and hitting his spots. If he does that, Norrie will eventually give him chances to break. And Mensik isn’t a servebot. He’s a good baseliner that will take advantage of openings.
Bet: Mensik ML (-148)
Tennis Futures – Queen’s Club, Halle and Berlin
Jack Draper To Win Queen’s Club (+470): Draper is on the bottom half of the draw in Queen’s, so he’s going to avoid an early meeting with Carlos Alcaraz. With that in mind, I like the southpaw’s chances of getting to the final, even if a matchup with either Taylor Fritz or Alex de Minaur could spell trouble in the semifinals. Draper is just a natural on the grass, and we have seen him beat Alcaraz at this very tournament. So, I wouldn’t mind holding a +470 ticket if those two square off in the final. Draper beat up on Alcaraz at Indian Wells. Those are conditions that have suited Alcaraz extremely well throughout his career.
Jannik Sinner To Win Halle (-138 – 2.5 units): Sinner might have some scar tissue after letting the French Open final slip out of his fingertips, but it’s hard not to like him to win in Halle. The courts in Germany are extremely fast, favoring players that can pound the ball and win quick points. Nobody does that better than Sinner.
Mirra Andreeva To Win Berlin (13-1 – 0.5 units): Andreeva is just 3-3 on grass at the WTA level, so she’s extremely green on a greener surface. But Andreeva doesn’t have an awful draw in Berlin. Matches against Amanda Anisimova and Jessica Pegula aren’t exactly easy, but I’d like her chances of coming out on top in both of them. And I have doubts about whether we’ll see Coco Gauff in the semifinals after a dramatic two weeks in Paris. Either way, these odds feel quite favorable for a player that is 31-8 since the start of the year. Would it really surprise you if she makes the final? Aryna Sabalenka, Elena Rybakina, Madison Keys and Qinwen Zheng are all on the top half of the bracket. Andreeva is on the bottom.
2025 Record: 757-741-1 (+23.29 units)
