Dubai, Doha, Rio de Janeiro tennis best bets for February 18th
This week, the top women in the world are in Dubai for the Dubai Duty Free Championships. This is the second 1000-level WTA event of the season, and I’ll be writing up tennis best bets for this one all week. Meanwhile, the men are scattered all over the globe, as there are 500-level tournaments in Doha and Rio de Janeiro. I’ll also be writing up best bets for those tournaments, so you’ll find a lot of my plays in these daily predictions stories. That said, keep reading for my best bets for Tuesday, February 18th, and check out the picks page for all of my action for smaller tournaments and Challengers.
I’m going to quickly hit on some of my favorite picks below, and I occasionally add some picks throughout the day. Schedules can get wonky with the international nature of the sport, and I also like to see how odds are moving. That said, keep checking the picks page every couple of hours if you want more of my picks.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
Sofia Kenin vs. Marta Kostyuk – Dubai
Kenin’s biggest weaknesses are inconsistencies in her footwork and an inability to be efficient on serve. However, talent isn’t a concern with the American. The 26-year-old won the Australian Open in 2020 and has the ability to play with anyone when she’s on. Well, it appears she’s on right now. Kenin has won five of her last seven matches, and a 7-5, 6-3 victory over Donna Vekic last round was very impressive. Kenin is moving well along the baseline, taking her time in setting her feet and also finding the box with her first serve. In fact, Kenin has had three straight matches with a 1st-in % of 73.6% or higher. When she’s serving that well, she’s very tough to beat. So, I’m banking on her to keep it rolling in this meeting with Kostyuk. I’m playing Kenin to win a set and also sprinkling the moneyline. Kostyuk just isn’t that good as a server, so Kenin should be able to really put some pressure on her in the return game. And if the American continues to serve the way she has been serving, she should find her way into this match.
Bet: Kenin +1.5 Sets (-164 – 1.5 units) & Kenin ML (+175 – 0.5 units)
Belinda Bencic vs. Emma Navarro – Dubai
Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs. Pedro Martinez Portero – Rio de Janeiro
Bencic is a massive favorite to beat Navarro, despite the fact that the American is a top-10 player and the Swiss star is just 66th. However, everybody should know that Bencic is a top-10 talent on the WTA Tour. She just happens to be coming off a maternity break. So, you shouldn’t be too surprised to see that she’s expected to win this match, especially in conditions that suit her game nicely. Bencic actually won this event back in 2019, and she’s playing some lights-out tennis to start the 2025 season. Meanwhile, Navarro is coming off a 6-2, 6-2 loss to Leylah Fernandez in Doha. So, these two are moving in opposite directions when it comes to form. That, combined with the fact that the public will be heavily backing Navarro, led me to Bencic as part of a two-leg parlay.
For the second part of this play, I’m riding with Martinez to win a set against Ugo Carabelli. Martinez was originally supposed to get Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, so he should feel better about this opponent. Ugo Carabelli lost his second qualifying match, and he’s just 4-12 at the ATP level in his career. Meanwhile, Martinez loves this portion of the season, has won five of his last seven matches and has won 45 ATP-level clay-court matches in his career. He should be more comfortable on this stage than his opponent, and I believe Martinez’s overall power will be too much for Ugo Carabelli to overcome. However, I’m going with Martinez to simply win a set, as the conditions in Rio are quite brutal. I’d rather not have to worry about a potential decider, if it comes to that.
PARLAY: Bencic ML & Martinez To Win A Set (-139 – 1.5 units)
Luca Nardi vs. Zhizhen Zhang – Doha
There’s some sharp money coming in on Nardi in this match, and I’m jumping on that side of things. Zhang had to retire after losing the first set of his match against Zizou Bergs in Marseille on Friday, so I’m not sure the 28-year-old is going to be in a great spot physically here. Also, while Nardi hasn’t done much to build off last year’s win over Novak Djokovic at Indian Wells, it is hard to ignore the fact that the biggest result of his career came on a slow hard court. The conditions in Doha are pretty similar. Nardi should also be quite confident coming into this match, as he is 11-5 to start the 2024 season and has turned in some nice performances. Sure, some of those results came at the Challenger level, and some of the wins have also come in qualifying. But wins are wins. Stacking them is never a bad thing. I also like that Nardi has won two matches in Doha already, going through qualifying without dropping a set. He’ll be comfortable when he gets on the court here.
Bet: Nardi ML (+130)
Hamad Medjedovic vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas – Doha
It can be difficult to head to a new tournament after a deep run the week before, and that’s exactly what Medjedovic will be dealing with in Doha. The Serbian is fresh off a run to the final in Marseille, and he has been playing some good tennis to start the 2025 season. However, Medjedovic did deal with some physical issues in France last week, so I’m not sure his body will be right in Doha. I also think he’ll be mentally exhausted after the trip over. On top of all of that, Tsitsipas should be a tough opponent in these slower conditions. He’s going to have time to set up and rip his weak one-handed backhand, which is a luxury he isn’t afforded often. There’s a reason Tsitsipas is so good on clay, and I think the same applies to a very slow hard court. We also saw Tsitsipas beat Medjedovic 7-6 (6), 6-3 in Gstaad last year. That was a clay-court event, so you might want to throw out the result. But I think it means something. Tsitsipas also knows just how dangerous Medjedovic is, so he won’t take his opponent lightly. I also liked the way Tsitsipas performed in Rotterdam last week. I know he lost to Mattia Bellucci, but he also beat Tallon Griekspoor in front of the Dutchman’s home fans.
Bet: Tsitsipas -2.5 Games (-125)
Sumit Nagal vs. Sebastian Baez – Rio de Janeiro
Baez is 67-38 in clay-court matches at the ATP level in his career, so he has proven to be excellent on this surface. However, Baez is just 1-4 to start the 2025 season. He also suffered a disappointing loss in the Rosario Challenger semifinals two weeks ago, and he got bounced in the Round of 16 in Buenos Aires last week. For an Argentinean player, those results were extremely disappointing. Now, I’m finding it hard to understand why he should be expected to pummel Nagal, who can be quite feisty on clay. I’m not sure this is a match that anybody will want to watch. The conditions will be slow and neither one of these guys can be trusted to hold serve. But I ultimately find it hard to believe that Baez will run Nagal off the court. I’d feel very differently if I knew I was getting the 2023 or 2024 version of Baez, but we haven’t seen that guy two months into the new season.
Bet: Nagal +5.5 Games (-143)
Additional Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success in the past. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day. My 250-level and Challenger-level action will live exclusively on the Pro Picks page.
