Tennis best bets for Tuesday, June 17th – Queen’s Club, Halle & Berlin
We’re in the short grass-court portion of the 2025 tennis season. That means we’re not too far away from Wimbledon, which is one of the best events in sports. However, we do have three 500-level events on the calendar for this week, so it’s time to lock in now. Some of the top players on the ATP Tour are at Queen’s Club for the HSBC Championships, and others are in Halle for the Terra Wortmann Open. Meanwhile, most of the women are in Germany for the Berlin Tennis Open. With all of that out of the way, let’s get into some tennis picks for Tuesday, June 17th.
I’d also strongly suggest checking the Pro Picks page throughout the day. That’s where Gill Alexander will be posting his best bets. Gill does a tremendous job handicapping tennis on A Numbers Game, which is a staple of our live VSiN programming. Also, while I try to write up as many of my plays as possible, I do occasionally add things to that page throughout the day. That’s also where I post plays for smaller ATP and WTA events, and my Challenger-level plays live exclusively on that page.
Jiri Lehecka vs. Alex de Minaur – Queen’s Club
Jan-Lennard Struff vs. Lorenzo Sonego – Halle
De Minaur’s moneyline price is a little too rich for my blood, but I like him to handle his business against Lehecka in London. De Minaur has been a tough out on grass, where the conditions make him a little more dangerous as a server and ball striker. However, he’s still able to play high-level defense. That should be enough for him to get through Lehecka, who really is out there to try and hit you off the court. The problem is that the Czech hasn’t been serving well lately. And if he doesn’t have a great day with the ball on his racquet, de Minaur is going to apply real pressure as a returner. That could lead to some double faults from Lehecka, who had six against Ben Shelton last match. I also just don’t think you can beat de Minaur by hitting nothing but powerful, flat shots — unless you’re somebody like Jannik Sinner. You need to get him off balance with some variety.
To get de Minaur down from -200 to a more palatable -111, I’m parlaying the Australian’s moneyline price with Struff to win a set. I actually like Struff to win his match against Sonego, but I don’t feel strongly enough about him to play it outright. But Struff’s ability to rack up easy holds should be massive on the fast courts in Halle, and Sonego isn’t a good returner. So, Struff should work himself deep into every set with his booming first serve and his ability to follow it up with strong play at the net. And I eventually expect the German to get some opportunities to break against Sonego, who is inconsistent with the ball on his racquet. But even if he doesn’t, Struff should be able to sneak a tiebreaker at some point. He’s just a sturdy grass-court player that should get a nice lift playing at home.
PARLAY: de Minaur ML & Struff +1.5 Sets (-111 – 1.5 units)
Alex Michelsen vs. Francisco Cerundolo – Halle
Our VSiN betting splits show that Michelsen is taking some sharp action. At DraftKings, bettors are flocking to back Cerundolo in this match, but Michelsen has moved from -120 to -130. However, that’s not the only reason I like the American. I also just think he’s a much better fit for a faster grass court.
Michelsen has already had some success on this surface, as he went to his first ATP final in Newport. Michelsen’s big serve and willingness to move forward are both rewarded on grass. I just wouldn’t be surprised if Michelsen has a much easier time holding than Cerundolo, and I also like this baseline matchup for the 20-year-old. I know Cerundolo has one of the best forehands in the sport, but he’s going to get some weird bounces on grass that will make it hard for him to consistently find the strike zone from that wing. I also think that Michelsen is going to dominate backhand-to-backhand exchanges here, as he likes to get low and hit big, flat shots from that side of the court.
I don’t think Michelsen is a better player than Cerundolo or anything, but conditions are just extremely important in tennis. Cerundolo is only 7-9 on grass in his career, and he’s 0-4 over the last 52 weeks. He’s not the same player on these courts.
Bet: Michelsen ML (-123 – 1.5 units)
Elena Rybakina vs. Qinwen Zheng – Berlin
I’m not playing Zheng to win a set because I have a ton of confidence in her grass-court ability. She hasn’t been great on this surface in her career. But Zheng did win two matches on grass in Queen’s Club last week, and one of them was a straight-set win over Emma Raducanu. That’s an impressive win considering Raducanu was playing at home, on a surface she likes. Well, what if Zheng is starting to pick up some confidence on this surface? I know she’s only 5-9 on grass in her career, but she’s only 22 years old and she’s a top-10 player on tour. She also has the type of game to win on grass, as she has a big serve, hits well from the baseline and does a good job moving around the court.
If Zheng is starting to figure this out, should she really be -147 to win a single set against Rybakina? I know Rybakina is a former Wimbledon champion, but that title — which was somewhat questionable — has done a lot of work in propping her up as one of the elite players in women’s tennis.
Realistically, there isn’t much that separates these two. And while Rybakina has had more success on grass, Zheng has won more grass-court matches in 2025. She also played Rybakina extremely close at Wimbledon in 2022. Rybakina won that match 7-6 (4), 7-5, but it could have gone either way. And Zheng won the most recent meeting between them, earning a 7-6 (4), 3-6, 6-1 win at last year’s WTA Finals.
To put it simply, I think there’s a better than 60% chance that Zheng will win a set here. So, it’s worth playing at these odds. I also think the moneyline is worth sprinkling. These numbers just don’t add up.
Bet: Zheng +1.5 Sets (-147 – 1.5 units) & Zheng ML (+175 – 0.5 units)
2025 Record: 762-743-1 (+26.02 units)
