The Olympic Games are over and that means it’s time to really focus on hard-court tennis. We’re on the road to the 2024 US Open, so the next couple of weeks will be packed with exciting action on the ATP and WTA Tours. This week, the top players in the world are in Montreal and Toronto for the National Bank Open (presented by Rogers). This is a 1000-level event for both the men and the women, meaning it’s as big as any non-major can be. So, you’re going to see some real intensity from everybody involved. Last year, Jannik Sinner won this event on the men’s side. On the women’s side, Jessica Pegula was the champion. Both players will be looking to defend their titles, but both fields are loaded. With that in mind, let’s get into it. Below you’ll find some of my favorite tennis predictions and best bets for Tuesday, August 6th. I’m also including some of my favorite pre-tournament futures.
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2024 Record: 597-598 (+32.04 units)
Borna Coric vs. Jakub Mensik – Montreal (Qualifiers)
This match was supposed to be played on Monday, but the rain pushed it to Tuesday morning. Hopefully that allows some extra people to jump on it. Mensik beat Coric in a tight three-set match in February, but that was back when the Czech was scorching hot. He made a run all the way to the final in Doha, which is where he beat Coric. However, the youngster’s level has come down quite a bit since then. And I happen to like the way that Coric is playing right now.
Coric suffered an early loss at Wimbledon and has lost in the first round of each of his last two tournaments. However, the Croatian has been slowly working his way back from an injury, and I thought he looked sharp in his loss to Emil Ruusuvuori in D.C. Coric also played well in a straight-set win over Liam Draxl in qualifying. It just feels like Coric is starting to get his legs underneath him, and this is generally the part of the season in which he comes alive. He won a 1000-level title in Cincinnati just two years ago. So, this is a dangerous opponent for Mensik, who could have some tired legs himself. Mensik’s match against Taha Baadi was pretty physical on Sunday and he was coming off a two-week stretch in which he played a lot of tennis. Mensik made a deep run in Umag and then went right to the Olympics. I wonder if he’ll be a little fatigued here.
Realistically, there’s just not much that separates these two players. We saw that in Mensik’s 4-6, 6-3, 7-6 (7) win over Coric in Doha, and I feel better about the Croatian’s game right now. I also think that Coric has been around the block and is a true tour professional. He should come correct with some adjustments here, while Mensik might just rely on his talent. These odds are just too hard to pass up given these two stand on pretty equal footing.
Bet: Coric ML (+125 – 2 units)
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova vs. Victoria Azarenka – Toronto
I had no problem fading Pavlyuchenkova at the Citi Open last week. She just hasn’t been in great form lately, and she was playing a tough opponent in Amanda Anisimova. Well, Pavlyuchenkova nearly won that match. It ended up being a 6-1, 6-7 (4), 6-4 win for Anisimova, and I was pretty impressed with Pavlyuchenkova’s level. Now I’m rolling with her to win a set off Azarenka, who was pretty disappointing in the nation’s capital.
Azarenka did win two matches in last week’s tournament, but they were close calls against Hailey Baptiste and Yafan Wang. In both matches, Azarenka was struggling with her range from the baseline, spraying errors all over the court. That’s concerning for a player that can occasionally struggle with her serve. Azarenka also followed those wins up with a lousy loss to Aryna Sabalenka, who made relatively quick work of her.
Azarenka has had success against Pavlyuchenkova in their head-to-head history, but I just can’t see the two-time Grand Slam champion running away with this. Pavlyuchenkova might not move very well, but she’s a very clean ball striker and will like the fast conditions in Toronto. I see her pushing Azarenka around from the baseline a little, and she won’t hesitate to punish any slow second serves that her opponent rolls into the box. And we have seen Azarenka do that when her confidence is shaken as a server.
Bet: Pavlyuchenkova +1.5 Sets (-132 – 2 units)
Montreal and Toronto Futures
Jannik Sinner To Win Montreal (+163 – 2 units): Sinner is the defending champion at this event. Oddly enough, he did win last year’s title in Toronto. So, he won’t be defending his crown in the same venue. But the conditions in Montreal are even faster and could benefit the Italian. He’s an elite server and returns as well as anyone. So, he should rack up holds pretty quickly and will also give himself opportunities to break. The latter will be difficult for lesser players on these courts. Sinner also has the baseline pop to really make opponents uncomfortable on these faster courts. That makes it hard not to put a good amount on him to win, especially with a decent draw. The biggest obstacle standing in the way of Sinner is seemingly Daniil Medvedev, who beat the Italian at Wimbledon. But I’d be surprised if he gets the best of Sinner again. The Italian wasn’t healthy in London and has had enough time to get himself right.
Emma Navarro To Win Toronto (20-1 – 0.25 units): I’m taking a flier on Navarro to win the women’s tournament this week. There’s a chance the American will have to go through Sabalenka at some point, but she has beaten her before. And overall, I like the way her game translates to a really quick surface. The speed of the court will make her serve a little more dangerous, and it’ll also do the same with some of her groundstrokes. When you add that to her ability to defend, construct points and make in-match adjustments, it just feels like this number is pretty long. Navarro’s big breakout title is coming soon and this could be the week she puts it together. Her draw is pretty favorable early in the event, which could allow her to build some confidence.
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
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