The main attraction in the world of tennis this week is undoubtedly the Paris Olympics. Some of the top players in the world, including Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic and Iga Swiatek, are competing for gold medals at Roland Garros. I’m going to be providing daily tennis best bets for the Olympic Games throughout the course of the week. However, I’m not going to ignore the Mubadala Citi DC Open. It’s a 500-level event for both the men and the women, and it’s usually the tournament that feels like the unofficial start of the “US Open Series.” That said, keep reading for my Paris Olympics and Mubadala City DC Open best bets, predictions and picks for Tuesday, July 30th.
I’m going to quickly hit on some of my favorites below, but I usually have more tennis picks on the Pro Picks page. I also occasionally add some plays throughout the day, as I like to see how odds are moving. That said, keep checking that page every couple of hours if you want more of my picks. That’s usually where I put my Challenger-level plays.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2024 Record: 568-557 (+47.63 units)
Paris Olympics Tennis Predictions and Best Bets
Mariano Navone vs. Lorenzo Musetti
This match isn’t going to attract casual tennis fans quite as much as the meeting between Djokovic and Rafael Nadal. However, this is one that the tennis sickos are going to be excited about. Musetti is up to 16th in the live ATP rankings and you’d be hard pressed to find 10 players that are better than him right now. The 22-year-old has always had a world of talent, as he can punish shots from both wings, gets good topspin on his forehand and also has a beautiful backhand slice. He’s also rock solid as both a server and a returner. Musetti is just finally putting things together mentally, and the timing is perfect after a horrendous start to the 2024 season. My only concern is that Musetti could be extremely fatigued, and a matchup with Navone on clay isn’t great for that.
Musetti has played as much tennis as anyone lately. He had a lot of success in the short grass-court season, which is obviously a great thing. But at the same time, that’s a portion of the season in which most players are getting some solid rest. He was going deep into tournaments and even went to the Wimbledon semifinals. Then, Musetti went all the way to the final in Umag, where he lost a long, physical three-set match against Francisco Cerundolo on Saturday. He then had to quickly hop on a flight for a Sunday match against Gael Monfils. Fortunately for Musetti, he earned a quick 6-1, 6-4 victory there. But he has just put a ton of mileage on his body, and he was a little banged up at Wimbledon. At some point, I think that’s going to catch up to him — even though he’s in peak form right now.
If Musetti is a drop short of 100% health, Navone will give him a match. This is a player that is 15-9 on clay over the last 52 weeks. He’s really, really good on this surface, where he combines a grinding mentality with the ability to also play aggressively. Navone is great at finding angles on the court, and he can be a terror to compete against when he’s feeling it from the forehand side. Navone is also one of the best clay-court returners in the world, so he’s going to put a lot of pressure on Musetti’s serve.
All in all, I don’t think it’s smart to rule out Musetti winning. He’s the superior player and is favored for a reason. But I’d be surprised if the Italian wins this in straight sets. There’s a dip in level coming and Navone can bring it out of him.
Bet: Navone +1.5 Sets (-150 – 1.5 units)
DOUBLES – Carlos Alcaraz and Rafael Nadal vs. Tallon Griekspoor and Wesley Koolhof
I’m not going to sit here and pretend to be a doubles expert. I rarely bet anything but singles. However, I do think that books are making you pay a heavy price to bet on Alcaraz and Nadal. The oddsmakers know that people will see two megastars and jump to back them. But the Spanish pairing didn’t look great in an opening round win over Andres Molteni and Maximo Gonzalez. Alcaraz has a lot to learn when it comes to playing doubles. His flashiness doesn’t really translate as well as you might think. And while Nadal has always been a very good doubles player, his drop in effectiveness as a server is hard to ignore. So, I have a hard time picturing this being a straightforward match.
Griekspoor is a player that has a game that is perfectly suited for doubles, as he has a massive serve and plays good tennis at the net. Meanwhile, Koolhof won a Grand Slam in doubles at Wimbledon last year and was a semifinalist at the French Open in 2020. He also won a Grand Slam at Roland Garros in mixed doubles in 2022. So, while Koolhof might be the worst individual player on the court in this match, don’t be surprised if he shines. And overall, I’d expect the Dutch duo to have a much better game plan here.
In the end, it wouldn’t be surprising if the talent of the two Spaniards wins out. But I think this is a lot closer to a 50-50 than the odds suggest. So, I’m putting a bigger play on Griekspoor and Koolhof to win a set, but I’m also sprinkling the moneyline.
Bet: Griekspoor/Koolhof +1.5 Sets (-130 – 2 units) & Griekspoor & Koolhof ML (+240 – 0.5 units)
Washington DC (Mubadala Citi DC Open) Tennis Predictions and Best Bets
Mitchell Krueger vs. Luca Nardi
It’s hard to say a career-defining win over Djokovic can be a bad thing. That victory at Indian Wells really put Nardi on the map. However, it also resulted in him garnering a little more respect than he might deserve right now. Since that win, Nardi is just 3-11 in the 14 ATP-level matches he has played. And overall, he just looks like he has a lot of work to do in order to maintain a ranking inside the Top 100. Nardi is now in Washington D.C. and hoping to improve on a 4-9 tour-level record on hard courts. And while his matchup with Krueger might look like a good one, I think he’s in for some trouble here.
It’s pretty fair to call Krueger a journeyman at this point in his career, but the 28-year-old can be a dangerous opponent in conditions like these. Krueger is a good server and loves to rush the net. He’s very decisive and knows exactly how he can win matches. I’m not sure the same can be said for Nardi. Ultimately, I just think Krueger is going to be a little more reliable in his service games, and he should pounce when he gets an opportunity to break. And even if he doesn’t, I think the American is better suited to thrive in tiebreakers.
Krueger should also be pretty confident right now. He hasn’t had much success at the ATP level lately, but he has won 12 of his last 16 hard-court matches in Challengers and M25s. He actually won a Challenger title in Little Rock in May, and that was a tournament with a decent field. On top of all of that, it shouldn’t hurt that Krueger will have the crowd in his corner.
Bet: Krueger ML (-120 – 1.5 units)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
