The main attraction in the world of tennis this week is undoubtedly the Paris Olympics. Some of the top players in the world, including Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic and Iga Swiatek, are competing for gold medals at Roland Garros. I’m going to be providing daily tennis best bets for the Olympic Games throughout the course of the tournament. However, I’m not going to ignore the Mubadala Citi DC Open. It’s a 500-level event for both the men and the women, and it’s usually the tournament that feels like the unofficial start of the “US Open Series.” That said, keep reading for my Paris Olympics and Mubadala City DC Open best bets, predictions and picks for Wednesday, July 31st.
I’m going to quickly hit on some of my favorites below, but I usually have more tennis picks on the Pro Picks page. I also occasionally add some plays throughout the day, as I like to see how odds are moving. That said, keep checking that page every couple of hours if you want more of my picks. That’s usually where I put my Challenger-level plays.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2024 Record: 571-563 (+43.88 units)
Paris Olympics Tennis Predictions and Best Bets
Lorenzo Musetti vs. Taylor Fritz
Francisco Cerundolo vs. Casper Ruud
I’m going to a two-leg parlay on the men’s side of the Olympics on Wednesday. For the first match, I’m taking Musetti to win a set against Fritz. These two met at Wimbledon earlier in the month, with Musetti pulling out a five-set win. That match was played on Fritz’s preferred surface, but the Italian was still able to win. That makes it hard to envision a scenario in which Fritz will beat him in straight sets on clay. Musetti is a far better clay-court performer between the two. I am slightly nervous about Musetti’s fitness, as he has played a lot of tennis lately. That’s why I liked Mariano Navone to win a set off him on Tuesday. But he has been holding up well and was able to escape in two sets there. So, he should be fresh enough to play his best tennis early in this one. Fritz is also scheduled for three matches on Wednesday, so he will have a lot on his mind.
For the second leg, I’m taking Ruud to outlast Cerundolo. This is a relatively scary one. Ruud hasn’t played his best tennis since arriving in Paris, while Cerundolo is coming off a title run in Umag. The Argentine beat Andrey Rublev and Musetti in the final two matches of that tournament, and he has carried that strong play over to the Olympics. Cerundolo beat Tomas Barrios Vera in straight sets and then won a tight three-setter against Frenchman Ugo Humbert last match. Cerundolo is just in great form right now, and he also happens to be 3-1 in his last four matches against Ruud. However, Ruud has always played his best tennis at Roland Garros, where he’s a two-time French Open runner-up. He should also be a lot fresher than Cerundolo. The Argentine has played six matches since July 24th and three of those matches were very physical. I can see him being a bit fatigued against Ruud, and the Norwegian will exploit that.
Ruud is brilliant when it comes to point construction on clay, and he hits a very heavy ball from the baseline. He’s going to push Cerundolo all around the court, and I think that will wear the Argentine down by the end of the match. I also think that Ruud is a little more reliable as a server. Don’t be surprised if this looks dicey at times, as Cerundolo can punish the ball from the baseline. But in the end, I think Ruud will get some unforced errors out of him.
PARLAY: Musetti +1.5 Sets + Ruud ML (-117 – 1.5 units)
Marta Kostyuk vs. Donna Vekic
Vekic has played some incredible tennis over the last couple of weeks. She’s coming off a run to the Wimbledon semifinals, where she nearly beat Jasmine Paolini to book a spot in the final. That came directly after a runner-up finish at Bad Homburg. Vekic also beat Coco Gauff in straight sets in her last match, and she hasn’t yet dropped a set at the Olympics. That makes it pretty easy to understand why she’s a favorite, and I wouldn’t blame anybody that wants to bet her. Vekic actually beat Kostyuk when the two met at the French Open a few months ago. However, I can’t quite shake the fact that I think Kostyuk is a better player.
The last match at Roland Garros was a 7-5, 6-4 win for Vekic, so it really could have gone either way. And I think that if these two played 10 matches against one another, Kostyuk would win either five or six. It’s really close to a 50-50, so I’m putting a small play on Kostyuk at plus-money odds.
Kostyuk actually went into the French Open on a poor run of form, so it wasn’t surprising to me that she was bounced pretty early. But Kostyuk is an absolute ball basher and can display flawless ball-striking when she’s confident. Well, straight-set wins over Lulu Sun and Clara Burel helped her build that confidence, and she then came through with a three-set win over Maria Sakkari last round. So, I think we’re seeing a much sharper version of the Ukrainian in Paris this time around. I also just like that Kostyuk’s break percentage is up at 37.0% in 2024. She has been relentless as a returner, which is only turned up a notch on slower clay. She’s going to constantly put pressure on Vekic’s serve.
It’s also supposed to be hot and humid at Roland Garros on Wednesday. That’s another difference between the French Open and the Olympics. It’s a lot hotter and grittier at this point in the summer. And Kostyuk should be able to deal with that a little better. Vekic had some issues physically later on in Wimbledon.
Bet: Kostyuk ML (+110)
Washington DC (Mubadala Citi DC Open) Tennis Predictions and Best Bets
Amanda Anisimova vs. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova
Pavlyuchenkova is a hot-and-cold player that is currently running cold. Since April, the Russian is 5-7 in the 12 matches she has played. She did win her opening-round match here, but that was a hard-fought 6-3, 4-6, 6-4 win over Ashlyn Krueger. That match was also a grind for Pavlyuchenkova, who can be prone to some physical letdowns. When you combine her poor recent form with that last physical match, Pavlyuchenkova is in bad shape heading into a meeting with Anisimova.
Anisimova is also somewhat hot and cold, but that’s more injury related. When she’s able to establish a rhythm, she’s as dangerous as they come when it comes to blasting shots from the baseline. And Anisimova has been running hot in D.C. The American went through qualifying without dropping a set and then absolutely dominated Sloane Stephens in her first main draw match. With that in mind, I think Anisimova is in better form right now.
Anisimova is also 2-0 against Pavlyuchenkova in her career, with both of those victories coming in straight sets. And it isn’t all that surprising either. These two are both aggressive baseliners, but Anisimova is a little more crisp and has an edge in athleticism.
All of that makes it hard not to like the American’s chances, especially with this being played in D.C. The crowd will be pulling for Anisimova, which will give her a nice little adrenaline boost.
Bet: Anisimova ML (-110 – 1.5 units)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
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