The main attraction in the world of tennis this week is undoubtedly the Paris Olympics. I had previously been including the Mubadala Citi DC Open in this story, but we’re down to Felix Auger Aliassime vs. Carlos Alcaraz and Lorenzo Musetti vs. Novak Djokovic in Paris. Both of those matches deserve a real spotlight, so I’m previewing them below. I’ll still have picks for the action in Washington D.C., but those will be on the Pro Picks page — along with any Challenger-level plays I add. That said, keep reading for my Paris Olympics best bets, predictions and picks for Friday, August 2nd.
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2024 Record: 577-572 (+39.77 units)
Felix Auger Aliassime vs. Carlos Alcaraz
Alcaraz was able to erase a 5-2 second-set deficit to beat Tommy Paul in straight sets. The Spaniard came away with a 6-3, 7-6 (7) victory, but he was pushed hard and noted that he was a little drained from a tough week. Well, Alcaraz is going to need to find his legs quickly in order to advance to the final. I know I liked Casper Ruud to beat Auger Aliassime in the quarterfinals, but the Norwegian was a little off and the Canadian played a solid match. The reality is that Auger Aliassime is benefitting from the fact that the conditions at Roland Garros are a little quicker now than they were at the French Open. For a player with a big serve and straightforward power game, that’s absolutely massive. We have seen Auger Aliassime have a lot of success on quicker clay courts, and I think the small change in conditions will give the Canadian a chance to keep this close.
Alcaraz is undoubtedly one of the best returners in the world, but Auger Aliassime is locked in and should be able to rack up holds. Honestly, Ruud had no business even winning the second set against him, but Auger Aliassime played one sloppy service game and let him back into the match. I don’t think we’ll see a loss of focus from Auger Aliassime at all here. He knows the task at hand and he can’t afford any mental lapses.
Alcaraz did beat up on Auger Aliassime the last time they played, earning a 6-3, 6-3, 6-1 win at the French Open. Alcaraz has now won three matches in a row against Auger Aliassime. However, the Canadian has earned three wins against him and knows that he can compete when he’s playing his best tennis. Well, we have seen the very best of Auger Aliassime at the Olympics, which isn’t surprising considering how well he tends to play when competing for his country. He’s a different player when donning that Canada red. With that in mind, I’m rolling with Auger Aliassime to cover a 4.5-game spread. I think he can get to a tiebreaker here, which would then make the lift quite easy in the other set. But I’m also playing the Canadian to win a set. I just don’t think it’s crazy to believe that he can win a tiebreaker. Alcaraz is also fully capable of playing a sloppy set.
Bet: Auger Aliassime +4.5 Games (-110 – 2 units) + Auger Aliassime +1.5 Sets (+140)
Lorenzo Musetti vs. Novak Djokovic
Musetti and Djokovic just met one another at Wimbledon. That match featured Djokovic picking up a straight-set victory. But Musetti was very competitive in those three sets, and that match was played on Djokovic’s favorite surface. Musetti was also coming off a couple of very physical matches, while Djokovic had barely played any tennis in London. So, moving back to clay should help Musetti quite a bit in this matchup. He had took two sets off Djokovic when the two met at the French Open a few weeks earlier. Musetti should also benefit from them being a little more even in time on court than they were at the All England Club.
Musetti’s court coverage allows him to grind out points against Djokovic, and he also has the firepower required to move the Serbian around the court. The latter is really important when looking at this specific match. After beating Stefanos Tsitsipas on Thursday, Djokovic said he felt some pain in the knee he had surgically repaired after withdrawing from the French Open. I know Djokovic is desperate to win Olympic gold, but this is not going to be an easy match for him if he’s injured. Musetti has been scorching hot throughout the course of the summer, and it’s hard to find many players that are playing better than he is right now. So, as long as Musetti doesn’t beat himself mentally here, I like the Italian’s chances of making this match. I also think he has a real shot at winning it.
Bet: Musetti +1.5 Sets (-125 – 1.5 units) & Musetti ML (+225 – 0.5 units)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
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