MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Friday, September 4.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
2:10 PM Eastern
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians — Game 1 of a Doubleheader
Tigers starting pitcher Keider Montero is pitching to plenty of contact with only six strikeouts per nine innings, but owns a solid 3.24 ERA while allowing only 0.9 home runs and two walks per nine innings. He faces a Guardians lineup that is 28th in scoring with just under 4.1 runs per game, while the Tigers rank seventh in scoring since the All-Star Break with over 4.7 runs per game. Guardians starting pitcher Logan Allen owns a 3.77 ERA in his six appearances and has not exceeded 3 1/3 innings in any of those appearances this season, which makes this almost a bullpen game for Cleveland.
Pick: Tigers Moneyline +118
Greg’s Handicap: Tigers +104
6:40 PM Eastern
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies
This is a dandy of a pitching matchup, with Chris Sale of the Braves supplying a 2.06 ERA with 11.1 strikeouts per nine innings and only 0.5 home runs per nine innings allowed. However, that ERA is 2.71 on the road compared to 1.45 at home. Phillies starting pitcher Cristopher Sánchez has a 2.52 ERA with 10.4 strikeouts and two walks per nine innings, but is far more dominant at home with a 1.68 ERA and four home runs allowed in 102 innings compared to a 3.68 road ERA with over 1.2 home runs per nine innings allowed. The Braves are averaging the fewest runs per game of any National League team since August 1 with less than 3.9 runs per game.
Pick: Phillies Moneyline -103
Greg’s Handicap: Phillies -119
7:05 PM Eastern
Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles
Red Sox starting pitcher Ranger Suárez overall this season has a 3.64 ERA and 3.10 fielding independent with 0.6 home runs and 2.8 walks per nine innings, but since coming off the injured list, he has a 5.01 ERA with only 6.1 strikeouts per nine innings in his last seven starts. He is supported by a Red Sox lineup that leads the American League in scoring since the All-Star Break with nearly 5.3 runs per game. Orioles starting pitcher Shane Baz has been the least profitable pitcher in baseball, with Baltimore going 7-20 in his starts, and a bettor would have lost money betting $100 on the moneyline in every Baz start. He owns a 4.10 ERA with eight strikeouts and 3.2 walks per nine innings.
Pick: Red Sox Moneyline -115 and Over 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Red Sox -132 and Total 9.1
7:10 PM Eastern
San Francisco Giants vs. New York Mets
Both offenses have struggled this season, with the Giants 23rd in scoring with just under 4.2 runs per game. With all the injuries they’ve suffered, they have only two healthy players with more than 10 home runs available and face Mets starting pitcher Nolan McLean, who has a 3.06 ERA with 9.9 strikeouts and 0.9 home runs per nine innings allowed, with only two earned runs allowed in his past four starts across 25 innings. Giants starting pitcher Matt Wilkinson has a 4.63 ERA and 3.70 fielding independent through his first three career MLB starts with only 4.6 strikeouts per nine innings, but has also allowed only one home run and two walks across his 11 2/3-inning sample. He faces a Mets lineup that is last in the National League in scoring with less than 4.1 runs per game.
Pick: Giants vs. Mets Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.7
Chicago Cubs vs. Miami Marlins
Marlins starting pitcher Janson Junk has pitched to a lot of contact with a 4.11 ERA and 6.1 strikeouts per nine innings and has to face a Cubs lineup that leads the league in scoring with 5.4 runs per game. Cubs starting pitcher Shota Imanaga has a 4.01 ERA with two home runs per nine innings this season and, in his last 18 starts, has a 4.97 ERA with 2.4 home runs per nine innings allowed.
Pick: Cubs Moneyline -125 and Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Cubs -151 and Total 8.7
7:40 PM Eastern
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox
While the overall season numbers for White Sox starting pitcher Erick Fedde are not amazing, with a 4.16 ERA and 5.16 fielding independent, 1.6 home runs per nine innings allowed, and only 6.4 strikeouts per nine innings, he has pitched really well at Guaranteed Rate Field throughout his career with a lifetime 2.62 ERA in 24 appearances. Twins starting pitcher Zebby Matthews has massive home and road splits with a 4.58 ERA overall, 7.5 strikeouts, and 1.8 home runs per nine innings allowed. He has been significantly better at home with a 2.84 ERA and 0.9 home runs per nine innings allowed compared to a 6.38 ERA on the road with 2.1 home runs per nine innings allowed.
Pick: White Sox Moneyline -118 and Under 9.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: White Sox -138 and Total 8.8
8:10 PM Eastern
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Houston Astros
Both starting pitchers have had rough seasons, as Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly has a 5.08 ERA and 5.56 fielding independent with 1.7 home runs and 4.1 walks per nine innings while getting only six strikeouts per nine innings. Astros starting pitcher Cristian Javier owns a 6.45 ERA with 1.6 home runs and 3.8 walks per nine innings, and the Diamondbacks are eighth in scoring since the All-Star Break with over 4.7 runs per game.
Pick: Diamondbacks vs. Astros Over 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 9.2
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Kansas City Royals
Blue Jays starting pitcher Jameson Taillon has struggled in a big way this season with a 5.68 ERA, 2.8 home runs, and 3.4 walks per nine innings for a 6.55 fielding independent. Royals starting pitcher Daniel Lynch has a 3.06 ERA and 3.68 fielding independent, but most of that work came out of the bullpen. Lynch has a 6.32 ERA in his five starts compared to a 1.96 ERA coming out of the bullpen and is supported by a lineup that has been far better at home this season. Entering Thursday, the Royals are 36-32 at home with 4.9 runs per game while going 26-46 away from home. The Blue Jays rank 29th in scoring with four runs per game.
Pick: Royals Moneyline -120
Greg’s Handicap: Royals -146
