The 2026 tennis season reaches its peak with the 2026 US Open in New York, with the final Grand Slam of the year getting underway at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center. The summer hard-court tune-ups are behind us, and now the margin for error disappears as the best players in the world battle across best-of-five and grueling best-of-three tests in the Flushing Meadows heat.
The fortnight always brings unmatched betting value on both tours, offering an early look at physical durability, tactical adjustments, and draw paths that could shape the championship picture. There is no shortage of high-level matchups to break down, and I’ll be delivering daily betting analysis and best bets throughout the tournament.
With that in mind, keep reading for my top tennis picks and best bets for Day 2 of the US Open on Monday, August 31.
NOTE: Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game, posts a bunch of tennis plays to the VSiN picks page. He does a great job handicapping tennis. That page is also where I post all of my Challenger-level picks + plays for all of the tournaments I’m not writing up daily.
Aleksandar Kovacevic vs. Valentin Vacherot
I’m a big fan of Vacherot’s game, but we haven’t seen him win a match since mid-July. The 27-year-old has dealt with on-and-off injuries this season, and his level hasn’t been great since returning. That opens the door for Kovacevic, who won three matches in Winston-Salem, to come up with a victory in front of a home crowd.
This will be an interesting match because most one-handed backhands are exploitable, and that should be especially true against Vacherot’s tremendous two-hander. But I like Kovacevic to hold his own in those exchanges, and I also believe the American’s flatter strokes will allow him to dictate play here. I also feel a little better about Kovacevic showing up as a server, as he has just had more time to play matches.
Bet: Kovacevic ML (+100)
Tallon Griekspoor vs. Ben Shelton
Shelton was one of my early picks to win this tournament, as I took a flier on him at 19-1 once it started to look like Jannik Sinner wouldn’t be playing. However, the American got one of the most brutal draws imaginable, and that starts with an opening-round match against Griekspoor. While this has been a rough season for the Dutchman, his game could give Shelton some problems.
When Griekspoor is playing well, he’s nearly impossible to break. Last year, he had a hold percentage of 85.0%. And while that number is down at 82.5% this year, the ability is still there. Also, Shelton really isn’t much of a returner. With that in mind, this is likely going to be a match in which both players trade quick holds, setting up some long sets.
I honestly see this as a match that could be extremely close, and I give Griekspoor a shot at winning. However, I’m taking +5.5 games in case Griekspoor comes out on the wrong end of a tiebreaker or two.
Bet: Griekspoor +5.5 Games (-120)
Sloane Stephens vs. Clara Tauson
Tauson is starting to play a little better, but the reality is that she’s 16-20 since the start of the 2026 season. That’s a massive drop from her fantastic 36-22 record in 2025, and her hold percentage (72.7%) and break percentage (28.1%) are both down. With that in mind, this is a good draw for Stephens, who is finally looking the part of a WTA-level player again. Stephens is 8-6 in her last 14 matches, and one of her defeats was a tight 7-5, 7-5 loss against Marta Kostyuk.
Stephens, who won this tournament in 2017, has the game to beat Tauson. The American just needs to do her best to keep rallies alive, relying on her athleticism and defensive capabilities to outlast an opponent that really doesn’t move well. The longer the rallies go, the more that favors Stephens.
Stephens also needs to do a decent job of finding the box on her first serve, but she has made at least 65.4% of her first serves in two of her last four matches. That said, that shouldn’t be a huge issue.
I just don’t see this being a straightforward match for Tauson, and that’s especially true with Stephens playing in front of an American crowd. So, I’m taking the underdog to win a set, and I’m also sprinkling the moneyline.
Bet: Stephens +1.5 Sets (-116 – 1.5 units) & Stephens ML (+230 – 0.5 units)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
