MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Monday, August 31.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
6:05 PM Eastern
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves
Braves starting pitcher Bryce Elder has given up a good amount of contact with a 3.95 ERA, allowing 1.4 home runs per nine innings with 7.4 strikeouts per nine innings, but should benefit from facing a Giants lineup that has only two healthy players with over 10 home runs this season, with Casey Schmitt and Willy Adames on the injured list. Giants starting pitcher Anthony Molina has a 2.89 ERA, but that comes in a sample size of four appearances and 9 1/3 innings, which makes it hard to put much stock into it, especially since his lifetime MLB ERA is 6.60 with 5.9 strikeouts per nine innings.
Pick: Braves Moneyline -135
Greg’s Handicap: Braves -184
6:45 PM Eastern
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals
Nationals starting pitcher Will Dion has been coming out of the bullpen exclusively this season for both the Cleveland Guardians and now the Nationals, but has provided a solid amount of length, going at least 2 2/3 innings in four of his past five appearances. He has a 3.67 ERA this season with 10.7 strikeouts and 2.4 walks per nine innings. Marlins starting pitcher Ryan Gusto has a 3.98 ERA with 7.5 strikeouts per nine innings and is supported by a bullpen that ranks 27th in ERA since July 1 at 4.98. Gusto faces a Nationals lineup that is second in the league in scoring with 5.2 runs per game.
Pick: Nationals Moneyline +110
Greg’s Handicap: Nationals -116
7:40 PM Eastern
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs
Both lineups will benefit from the wind blowing out, as the Brewers are fourth in the league in scoring with over 4.9 runs per game, while the Cubs lead the league with 5.3 runs per game. The Cubs face Brewers starting pitcher Kyle Harrison, who has some large home and road splits, overall supplying a 2.79 ERA with 11.1 strikeouts and 1.2 home runs per nine innings allowed. At home, he owns a 1.26 ERA with 0.6 home runs per nine innings allowed compared to a 4.66 ERA with nearly two home runs per nine innings allowed away from home. Cubs starting pitcher Clay Holmes has a 2.26 ERA but a much higher 3.35 fielding independent, as he is pitching to a lot of contact with 6.5 strikeouts and three walks per nine innings.
Pick: Brewers Moneyline +100 and Over 9.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Brewers -113 and Total 10.2
8:05 PM Eastern
Chicago White Sox vs. Houston Astros
White Sox starting pitcher Anthony Kay overall this season has a 4.09 ERA and 4.79 fielding independent with 7.4 strikeouts and 3.2 walks per nine innings, but has allowed three earned runs or fewer in 11 of his past 12 starts and is supported by a lineup that is sixth in the league in scoring with 4.8 runs per game. Astros starting pitcher Peter Lambert has a 3.66 ERA with 8.8 strikeouts and 3.6 walks per nine innings, with at least three runs allowed in three of his past four starts. The White Sox are also fifth in bullpen ERA since July 1 at 3.25.
Pick: White Sox Moneyline +116
Greg’s Handicap: White Sox -114
8:40 PM Eastern
Baltimore Orioles vs. Colorado Rockies
Rockies starting pitcher Tanner Gordon has allowed a lot of hard contact this season, registering a 5.38 ERA with 1.8 home runs and 7.4 strikeouts per nine innings. Orioles starting pitcher Kyle Bradish has had an issue with walks, posting a 4.03 ERA with 3.9 walks per nine innings, but is supported by a bullpen that ranks fourth in ERA since July 1 at 3.16, while the Rockies are 14th in bullpen ERA in that span at 3.90.
Pick: Orioles Moneyline -130
Greg’s Handicap: Orioles -153
9:38 PM Eastern
New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Angels
Yankees starting pitcher Elmer Rodriguez has allowed three runs or fewer in all five of his career starts, but has a 4.70 ERA, as he has gone just 23 innings in those starts with 5.1 walks per nine innings. He is supported by a bullpen that leads the league in ERA at 3.04, while the Angels are last in the league in run production at home with 3.5 runs per game. Angels starting pitcher Walbert Ureña has been one of the lone bright spots for the team, as he owns a 2.94 ERA with only 0.5 home runs per nine innings allowed.
Pick: Yankees vs. Angels Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.7
9:40 PM Eastern
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Since returning to the Diamondbacks’ starting rotation on June 30, Brandon Pfaadt has been the most profitable pitcher in baseball, with the team going 10-1 in those starts. He has been a master of inducing soft contact, posting a 2.15 ERA in this span with 0.7 home runs per nine innings allowed despite getting only 5.5 strikeouts per nine innings. Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola owns a 5.03 ERA with two home runs and 3.1 walks per nine innings this season, and while Nola has allowed three earned runs or fewer in six straight starts, the Phillies are 25th in bullpen ERA since July 1 at 4.67, while the Diamondbacks are 16th in that span at 3.93.
Pick: Diamondbacks Moneyline +105
Greg’s Handicap: Diamondbacks -131
