2026/27 Season Week 2
Week 1 went 2-1. With August drawing to a close, we are into the full swing of the European season, with the Bundesliga getting underway and Serie A and La Liga already out the traps. Three picks again this week, and the angle running through all of them is the financial gap between the haves and the have-nots.
Elversberg vs Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga | Matchday 1
Saturday, August 29 | 9:30 AM ET | Ursapharm-Arena | Spiesen-Elversberg, Germany | Watch: Fandango
Anyone who followed my World Cup coverage knows I am a big fan of Patrik Schick. I backed him to score against South Africa and he failed to deliver, but the Bayer Leverkusen version is one we can depend on. Schick has spent the last seven seasons establishing himself as one of the most potent goalscorers in the Bundesliga.
Schick is 30 years old and around that sweet spot in a striker’s career where experience and physical ability are in perfect balance. He has already opened his account this campaign with the first goal in Leverkusen’s 4–0 DFB-Pokal win over Wehen. He is expected to continue on penalty duty after converting four of five in 25/26 and one in 24/25, meaning his other 32 Bundesliga goals across the last two seasons have come from open play — one every 103 minutes across 59 appearances.
Elversberg’s arrival in the Bundesliga is a remarkable story and an achievement worth celebrating. A club from a town of roughly 7,000 people, they finished second in the 2. Bundesliga to become the 59th team in history to compete in the German top flight. The step up between the divisions is a significant one, especially for smaller clubs like Elversberg who have built their success largely through player development and smart loan signings rather than heavy transfer spending.
With a total outlay of €12.1m per Transfermarkt.us on eight players averaging 21.5 years old, these are additions with tomorrow in mind. I think it’s going to be a struggle for them, especially in the early rounds as they adjust to the step up in quality. Leverkusen are exactly the kind of established side that will expose that gap, and Schick, who has spent the majority of his career perfecting his craft at this level, will cause problems for their defense.
On the opening weekend we have a proven Bundesliga goalscorer on penalty duty against a newly promoted side at plus-money. Back Schick at +105 to get on the scoresheet.
Pick: Patrik Schick Anytime Goalscorer +105
Cagliari vs Inter Milan | Serie A | Matchday 2
Sunday, August 30 | 2:45 PM ET | Unipol Domus | Cagliari, Italy | Watch: Paramount+
We are one matchday into the Serie A season, and as expected, Inter Milan look like the team to beat. The reigning champions opened with a 4–1 demolition of Monza at the San Siro—a performance that let the rest of the league know it’s going to take everything they have to wrestle the Scudetto away from them.
Andy Diouf and Pio Esposito were the stars of the show. Diouf arrived from RC Lens last summer as a midfielder but has thrived at right wing-back throughout preseason, a switch born of necessity after the club sold Denzel Dumfries to Real Madrid and waited to complete Djed Spence’s transfer. He was named man of the match against Monza for providing two assists—the second finished by Esposito with an exquisite back-heel that had the Nerazzurri faithful out of their seats.
Inter have outlaid roughly €101m this summer to replace the aging Stefan de Vrij, Francesco Acerbi, Yann Sommer and Matteo Darmian, all of whom have departed. John Stones and Spence have come in, Manuel Akanji’s loan has been made permanent, and Benjamin Pavard is back from his loan spell at Olympique Marseille. Curtis Jones has arrived from Liverpool and Aleksandar Stanković has joined from Club Brugge to add further depth and options in central midfield.
Now look at Cagliari’s window. Their most notable piece of business is striker Sebastiano Esposito—signed from Inter for €4m and the older brother of Pio. Beyond that it has been loan deals and €800k for left-back Giuseppe Aurelio. That is €4.8m in permanent spending against Inter’s €101m.
This is the harsh financial reality for most of the lower-table Serie A sides. The clubs qualifying for the UEFA Champions League year after year bank revenue Cagliari can only dream of, and the gap compounds every season, leaving them unable to compete for targets on the open market and forcing them to wait for the rest of Europe to finish its business and pick through whoever is left.
That gulf in resources is why I love Inter on the spread here. Cagliari technically have home advantage, but the Unipol Domus is far from being known as a fortress. Over the past two seasons they have won just 13 of 38 home league matches, picking up 22 points in 24/25 and 25 in 25/26. Inter, on the other hand, have been elite travelers—38 points on the road in 24/25 and 42 in 25/26, winning 24 and losing just six across both seasons.
Cagliari’s 1–0 win over Parma last week tells us little about how they will fare against Inter. Parma finished just one place and two points above them last season and are dealing with the loss of their top goalscorer Mateo Pellegrino and No. 1 goalkeeper Zion Suzuki. Cagliari do not have the starting XI or squad depth to match Inter over 90 minutes, and their home record over the last two seasons offers little reason to expect a defensive performance that keeps them within touching distance of the reigning champions.
Inter -1.5 briefly shortened to +115 at DraftKings and has drifted back out to +120. That’s a great price for the reigning champions, who have beaten Cagliari by two goals or more in seven of their last eight meetings. Back Inter to make it eight out of nine.
Pick: Inter Milan -1.5 Goals +120
Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano | La Liga | Matchday 3
Monday, August 31 | 2:45 PM ET | Spotify Camp Nou | Barcelona, Spain | Watch: ESPN
Last season Rayo Vallecano surprised everyone — including themselves — by reaching the Europa Conference League final, where they lost 1–0 to Crystal Palace. Their run captured the imagination of neutral fans across Europe, and one detail in particular was romanticized: Rayo tickets weren’t available online. Every ticket had to be purchased in person at the stadium box office with fans queuing up patiently around the block. It was framed as a charming throwback, but the reality is far from romantic. It is a symptom of a club that has chronically underinvested in basic infrastructure, and that neglect has finally caught up with them.
A few weeks ago, the regional government of Madrid suspended Rayo’s stadium license at the Estadio de Vallecas due to severe maintenance failures, fire safety risks and health concerns related to Legionnaires’ disease. Repairs are expected to take two to six months, forcing the club to play their home matches at Estadio Municipal de Butarque—the home of Leganés. The crisis deepened when club officials delayed access for maintenance crews attempting to carry out emergency work.
The stadium is not the only thing they have lost. Íñigo Pérez stepped down as manager at the end of May and joined Villarreal after leading the club to that historic final. His replacement is Beñat San José, a journeyman who has managed 11 clubs in 13 years. This is a club dealing with the loss of its home ground and the manager who delivered the best season in its history. Rayo have started the season poorly with a 2–1 loss to ten-man Sevilla—a side they are expected to battle for relegation survival—and a 1–1 draw with Alavés.
Every summer we watch Barcelona tiptoe across the financial tightrope, and every summer they emerge with a stronger squad. This transfer window has been no different, with Anthony Gordon and Karim Adeyemi injecting genuine pace into the front line and João Cancelo joining on a free transfer. And then there is Rodri.
Swiping the Ballon d’Or winner and World Cup winner from under Real Madrid’s noses is the kind of business that lets Barcelona continue their recent dominance of La Liga. When he settles into the base of their midfield and begins dictating the tempo, this team will kick on to another level. This could be the one transfer that takes them all the way in the Champions League.
Barcelona opened with a 5–0 demolition of Elche. The goals came from getting in behind, playing through the lines and threading balls into space — the kind of varied attacking play that makes a team difficult to prepare for. On Thursday they backed it up with a 2–0 win over Athletic Club, generating 4.23 xG from 22 shots and four big chances per SofaScore. It was only Unai Simón, with eight saves, who kept the scoreline respectable for Athletic.
The additions of Gordon and Adeyemi have given Barcelona the pace and directness they previously lacked, and combined with the creativity of Lamine Yamal, Raphinha, Dani Olmo and Fermín López, this is a front line that can hurt you in every way imaginable.
That attacking versatility is what makes Barcelona Win Both Halves the play here. Against a Rayo side dealing with everything outlined above, Barcelona have the quality to lead at the break and the depth on the bench for Hansi Flick to run away with it in the second half.
The market has already moved. This was +125 before Thursday’s win over Athletic, and it is now +105. One side spent the summer courting a Ballon d’Or winner. The other spent theirs fighting with the health inspector. Back Barcelona to Win Both Halves at +105 before it shortens further.
Pick: Barcelona To Win Both Halves +105
