The 2026 tennis season reaches its peak with the 2026 US Open in New York, with the final Grand Slam of the year getting underway at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center. The summer hard-court tune-ups are behind us, and now the margin for error disappears as the best players in the world battle across best-of-five and grueling best-of-three tests in the Flushing Meadows heat.
The fortnight always brings unmatched betting value on both tours, offering an early look at physical durability, tactical adjustments, and draw paths that could shape the championship picture. There is no shortage of high-level matchups to break down, and I’ll be delivering daily betting analysis and best bets throughout the tournament.
With that in mind, keep reading for my top tennis picks and best bets for Day 1 of the US Open on Sunday, August 30.
NOTE: Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game, posts a bunch of tennis plays to the VSiN picks page. He does a great job handicapping tennis. That page is also where I post all of my Challenger-level picks + plays for all of the tournaments I’m not writing up daily.
Luca Van Assche vs. Cameron Norrie
Van Assche has played rather well this season, going 26-6 in Challengers and 9-7 at the ATP level. However, the Frenchman has lost three consecutive main-draw matches on hard courts, and he’s now going up against an opponent he is 1-3 against in his career.
Norrie has enjoyed the matchup with Van Assche in the past, and the Brit comes into this one playing quite well. Since the end of the grass-court season, Norrie is 7-3 on hard courts. His losses were competitive defeats at the hands of Denis Shapovalov, Arthur Fils, and Alexander Zverev.
Van Assche is just a player that goes for broke rather often, but Norrie is out there to redirect pace, extend rallies, and grind opponents down. I like him to do that here, and I believe his ability to return will be big in him getting out of here in four or fewer sets. Van Assche only holds at a 70.1% clip in ATP-level matches, and Norrie has a break percentage of 21.3% — and that number was as high as 28.3% in his prime.
Norrie also has a pretty sizable edge in looking at some of TennisViz’s key numbers. Norrie’s Performance Rating of 7.39 is way higher than Van Assche’s 6.73 over the last 52 weeks. The southpaw also has the better Serve Quality (7.6 vs. 6.9), Return Quality (6.4 vs. 5.8), and Forehand Quality (7.5 vs. 6.7). Combine all of that with his superior big-match experience and Norrie should find a way.
Bet: Norrie -1.5 Sets (-110)
Toby Samuel vs. Tomas Machac
While it might seem odd to take a relative unknown against Machac, we just saw the Czech lose 6-2, 7-6 (1) against Mees Rottgering in Winston-Salem. Machac now comes into this one having lost back-to-back matches against opponents outside the Top 50, as he also lost in straight sets against Pablo Carreno Busta in Cincinnati.
Machac just hasn’t played well this season, as he’s just 15-13 on the year. We also haven’t seen him play much, in general. Machac was out the entire grass-court season, and his two matches on hard courts prior to arriving in Flushing probably didn’t get him ready for showtime.
Naturally, it’s fair to worry about whether Samuel has the game to beat someone with Machac’s talent, but the Brit is 24-8 at the Challenger level this season. He has won a ton of matches, plus his style of play should make it hard for Machac to play his way into a rhythm. Samuel is a good mover, he’s aggressive with his groundstrokes, and he’s capable of being extremely tough to break because of his combination of a solid serve and good instincts when it comes to approaching the net.
Samuel really should have several chances to win this match, and I wouldn’t even be surprised if Machac retires at some point.
Bet: Samuel ML (-138 – 1.5 units)
Sebastian Gorzny vs. Raphael Collignon
It’s stunning that Gorzny is going off at plus-money odds to win a set. I understand Collignon is a very good player, but his form has been all over the place lately. In fact, the 24-year-old comes into this match having lost all three of the matches he has played on hard courts since Wimbledon.
Collignon also happens to be a player that relies heavily on big ball-striking. Well, that type of player generally needs to be feeling good in order to win with ease. With that in mind, I’m riding with Gorzny to take a set.
Gorzny is a big player who can rack up holds in a hurry, as he has a strong serve and an effective plus-one game. I see him playing his way into a few of these sets, giving himself a chance to capitalize on any shakiness from Collignon.
Bet: Gorzny To Win A Set (+102)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
