Coke Zero Sugar 400 Predictions: Top 5 Picks and Best Long Shots:
We’ve reached the end of NASCAR’s 2026 “regular season,” as Saturday’s Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona International Speedway marks the cutoff point for determining which 16 drivers will make it into the Chase. The summer Daytona event has always been my favorite race of the season, mostly for the crazy action under the lights at the “World Center of Racing.” However, with the stakes having been enhanced in recent years by the playoff implications, the racing has been more intense than ever. That said, if you’re going into this weekend thinking that handicapping Daytona is easy with stats and projections, you might want to reconsider, as it is actually the most unpredictable track on the circuit.
It’s always a wild ride at Daytona, as the action is unmatched on the circuit for crazy finishes, intensity, and wild wrecks. The track is one of the NASCAR circuit’s biggest at 2 1/2 miles around, and with speeds reaching 200+ mph on up to 31-degree track banking, it’s easy to see how the action becomes so exhilarating.
There is little that compares to the freight-train roar of the closely drafting cars flying around the oval. This does make it rather tough to predict for bettors, though, especially those who rely on stats and historical data like me, but it is always a fantastic opportunity to score with big underdogs. In fact, in February’s Daytona 500, Tyler Reddick brought home a 20-1 ticket to win for my top underdog picks. He would figure to be somewhat of a long shot again, as it appears he has lost the early-season magic that allowed him to get off to a huge standings lead by winning the first three races and five of the first nine. He hasn’t won since. Still, oddsmakers peg him as the No. 4 favorite for this week, at +1200. Reddick is behind William Byron (+850), last week’s winner Ryan Blaney (+850) and Joey Logano (+1100). Interestingly, my initial simulation finds Blaney as the co-favorite at +850 with Byron, which I will discuss further in a bit.
Fundamentally, in terms of handicapping, Daytona is the only track that I assign a Handicap-Ability Grade of F to for my simulations, and not only for the surprise winners that come out of nowhere but also because huge accidents can wipe out as many as 10-15 cars at a time, many of whom are expected contenders. In fact, eight of the 40 entrants in last year’s Coke Zero Sugar 400 failed to finish with a designation of crash as the reason.
In terms of statistics at any track, as a race bettor, I easily prefer recency numbers to longevity figures, and I share the leaders from the last four races at Daytona below. If you’re wondering, practice speeds and recent momentum are the foremost simulation factors to consider. Of course, there is no practice for this race. That gives this week’s edge to the Penske teammates Logano and Blaney, who, along with teammate Austin Cindric, have demonstrated dominant drafting prowess at the tracks where it is the prominent factor lately. Blaney comes off a win a week ago at New Hampshire, and Logano has two wins in the most recent five races. Of course, any driver’s race day success at Daytona tends to be decided by whether or not they can avoid key mistakes and find a way up front in the closing laps. The No. 3 through No. 5 drivers on the simulation are Chase Briscoe, Bubba Wallace and Kyle Larson, a trio that seems to always run well but can be caught up in trouble. Wallace is listed at +2000 at DraftKings to win, while Larson is +1600 and Briscoe is +2000.
As this is the final race before the Chase, it should be noted that the race for the final playoff spots is not as close as usual, with Shane Van Gisbergen in 16th and holding a 31-point advantage over 17th-place Ryan Preece. SVG trails Austin Cindric for 15th by 13 points. Brad Keselowski in 18th (-66 of SVG) is the only other driver still mathematically alive, as only the top 16 make the Chase. He essentially needs a win, a stage sweep and for SVG to struggle badly. Bettors should remember what I have mentioned the last two weeks, though, to be wary of backing these guys, as desperation doesn’t always equal success. In fact, just like teams in other sports that are in “must-win” situations, things can turn out quite the opposite. Ross Chastain pushed too hard last week and ended up wrecked and out of playoff contention.
Things went reasonably well last week at New Hampshire, where our simulation’s third-placed projected driver, Ryan Blaney, took the checkered flag. It was the third straight week that our third-place projection won the race, and I hinted last week that it could be an emerging and recordable strategy; thus, I am adding it to the ledger this week for bettors who prefer perhaps a little flatter but less risky strategy. I also had Bubba Wallace and Josh Berry among my top underdogs to consider, and they finished second and third. With that in mind, this is how the Dollar Tree 301 affected our season numbers to date.
Initial New Hampshire simulation winner: Loser (-1 unit) – NOW +2.85 units for the season
Final New Hampshire Simulation winner: Loser (-1 unit) – NOW +35.05 units for the season (These are +89.85 units for the last two seasons)
Final New Hampshire Simulation Top 2 drivers To Win: Two losers – total return -2 units – NOW +20.35 units for the season
As I just mentioned, for the third straight week our projected third-place driver took home the checkered flag (Blaney). Thus,
Final New Hampshire Simulation Top 3 drivers To Win: One Winner, Two Losers – total return +1.3 units – NOW +20.15 units for the season
Final simulation top 3 New Hampshire projections: one winner, two losers – Blaney (+100) – total return -1 unit – NOW +1.2 units for the season
Final simulation top 5 New Hampshire projections: two winners, three losers, Bell (-175), Blaney (+200) – total return -1.45 units – Now -24.8 units for the season
Last week, I noticed that DraftKings posted top-10 odds, and for New Hampshire, we scored seven top-10 finishers for +0.3 units. However, I discontinued recording those results last month when the top-10 odds went off our feed.
Now for my final personal picks, which are published each race day in the VSiN Email Newsletter…
Final simulation top 5 New Hampshire projections: two winners, three losers, Bell (-175), Blaney (+200) – total return -1.45 units – Now -43.5 units for the season
Top New Hampshire long shots to win: four losers –total return -4 units – Now +0 units for the season
Favorites to struggle at New Hampshire Elliott (25th), Cindric (12th), Hocevar (19th), SVG (20th) – Now 73 for 100 for the season picking usual contending drivers to finish outside of the top 10.
I’m very proud of the underdog showing last week but was a bit disappointed with Christopher Bell not being an elite driver at New Hampshire. Blaney is currently the hottest driver on the circuit and the previous two races had him simulated to win and he came up short.
We take a break from flat short tracks for the first time in three weeks for the Coke Zero Sugar 400 and won’t return to one till Gateway on Sept. 13. Looking ahead to Daytona on Saturday, here are the leaders from the last four races run at the World Center of Racing in specific categories.
Average STARTING POSITION last four DAYTONA Races
1. Chase Briscoe: 4.5
2. Joey Logano: 5
3. Ryan Blaney: 9
4. Kyle Larson: 10.5
5. Austin Dillon: 11.25
6. Austin Cindric: 12.75
…
28. John Hunter Nemechek: 23.5
29. Noah Gragson: 26
30. Ricky Stenhouse: 26.75
31. Cole Custer: 27.33
32. Corey Heim: 29
33. Connor Zilisch: 32
Average RUNNING POSITION last four DAYTONA Races
1. Joey Logano: 12
2. Chris Buescher: 12.25
3. Ryan Blaney: 13
4. Kyle Larson: 13.75
5. Brad Keselowski: 13.75
6. Christopher Bell: 14.5
…
28. Alex Bowman: 25
29. Ricky Stenhouse: 27
30. AJ Allmendinger: 28
31. Noah Gragson: 28
32. Carson Hocevar: 28.25
33. Connor Zilisch: 29
Average LAPS LED last four DAYTONA Races
1. Joey Logano: 28.25
2. Austin Cindric: 19.75
3. Darrell Wallace: 18.75
4. Ryan Blaney: 12.75
5. Michael McDowell: 10.75
6. Chase Briscoe: 8.75
…
28. Carson Hocevar: 0.75
29. Noah Gragson: 0.5
30. AJ Allmendinger: 0.33
31. Tyler Reddick: 0.25
32. Ty Gibbs: 0
33. Connor Zilisch: 0
Average % LAPS COMPLETED last four DAYTONA Races
1. Ty Dillon: 100%
2. Chris Buescher: 100%
3. Erik Jones: 100%
4. Cole Custer: 100%
5. Ty Gibbs: 100%
6. John Hunter Nemechek: 99.9%
7. Brad Keselowski: 99.9%
…
28. Darrell Wallace: 78.7%
29. Austin Cindric: 78.4%
30. Ricky Stenhouse: 77.4%
31. AJ Allmendinger: 73.4%
32. Alex Bowman: 69.6%
33. Noah Gragson: 62.9%
Average DRIVER RATING last four DAYTONA Races
1. Chris Buescher: 95.93
2. Joey Logano: 92.63
3. Ryan Blaney: 87.05
4. Brad Keselowski: 84.33
5. Darrell Wallace: 83.55
6. William Byron: 83.4
…
28. Stenhouse Ricky: 55.15
29. Shane Van Gisbergen: 55
30. Carson Hocevar: 52
31. Noah Gragson: 51.93
32. AJ Allmendinger: 48.7
33. Connor Zilisch: 46.7
Most AVG LAPS RUN in TOP 15 last four DAYTONA Races
1. Chris Buescher: 130.5
2. Joey Logano: 116.25
3. Kyle Larson: 109.75
4. Christopher Bell: 108
5. Brad Keselowski: 107.5
6. Darrell Wallace: 106.5
…
28. Shane Van Gisbergen: 44.5
29. Noah Gragson: 37.75
30. Ricky Stenhouse: 30.75
31. Carson Hocevar: 21.5
32. AJ Allmendinger: 21.33
33. Connor Zilisch: 19
Best AVERAGE FINISH last four DAYTONA Races
1. Chris Buescher: 8.5
2. Tyler Reddick: 13
3. Ty Gibbs: 13
4. Erik Jones: 13.75
5. Brad Keselowski: 14.25
6. William Byron: 14.75
…
28. Corey Heim: 28
29. Shane Van Gisbergen: 28.5
30. Noah Gragson: 28.5
31. AJ Allmendinger: 28.67
32. Denny Hamlin: 29.5
33. Connor Zilisch: 33
Of note on these stat leaders, the dominant teams seem to be the Fords of RFK Racing and Team Penske. They seem to have the best handle on the drafting of any of the manufacturers, and it seems that Chevy and Toyota are playing catch-up. Of course, winning at Daytona often comes down to putting yourself in the right place at the right time, which is what Reddick did in February.
With those stats in mind, my top-rated drivers on the simulation factors at Daytona are Buescher, Logano, Wallace, Elliott, Berry. In terms of DRAFT SUPERSPEEDWAYs, the order is Wallace, Logano, Buescher, Keselowski, Chastain. For recent ratings, the top 5 are Blaney, Bell, Larson, Hamlin, Gibbs. All of it goes into the making of my initial simulation, which can be seen now on the NASCAR HUB at VSiN.com.
The final simulation will be made available Friday evening after qualifying, which is set for 5 p.m. ET. Remember, there is no practice session. That said, having to make my predictions at this point (which could change a bit after qualifying), I would go with the following:
Top 5: Logano, Buescher, Blaney, Wallace. Byron
Top underdogs to consider (+1200 or higher): Larson, Cindric, Buescher, Keselowski, Wallace
Favorites to struggle: Bell, Elliott, Hamlin, Gibbs, Reddick
The 400-mile event at Daytona is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday.
Be sure to visit VSiN.com for this week’s full INITIAL SIMULATION. This is where you’ll find the sims all season long. While there, you can click on driver links for season stats and recent results, plus get current odds, and much, much more.
