The 2026 tennis season reaches its peak with the 2026 US Open in New York, with the final Grand Slam of the year getting underway at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center. The summer hard-court tune-ups are behind us, and now the margin for error disappears as the best players in the world battle across best-of-five and grueling best-of-three tests in the Flushing Meadows heat.
The fortnight always brings unmatched betting value on both tours, offering an early look at physical durability, tactical adjustments, and draw paths that could shape the championship picture. There is no shortage of high-level matchups to break down, and I’ll be delivering daily betting analysis and best bets throughout the tournament.
With that in mind, keep reading for my top tennis picks and best bets for Day 8 of the US Open on Sunday, September 6.
NOTE: Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game, posts a bunch of tennis plays to the VSiN picks page. He does a great job handicapping tennis. That page is also where I post all of my Challenger-level picks + plays for all of the tournaments I’m not writing up daily.
Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs. Alex Michelsen
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Ben Shelton
When looking at the Sunday US Open card, I was immediately taken aback upon seeing the odds in the Etcheverry-Michelsen and Tsitsipas-Shelton matches. I think both of the underdogs are extremely live, so I put in a couple of plays. The biggest one I have is a parlay with Etcheverry and Tsitsipas to win at least a set each. However, I’m also putting a little something on both underdogs to win outright.
Michelsen has looked sharp throughout this tournament, earning straight-set wins over Brandon Nakashima and Daniel Merida Aguilar. However, the win over Merida was definitely aided by an injury to the Spaniard. I’m also not ready to completely change the way I think of Michelsen based on two matches. I’m a big fan of the American’s game, so it’s not like I don’t believe in his ability. But is there really this big of a gap between Michelsen and Etcheverry? Over the last 52 weeks, Etcheverry’s TennisViz Performance Rating of 7.49 in non-majors is higher than Michelsen’s 7.46. Etcheverry also happens to have an edge in Serve Quality (8.3 vs. 7.9) and Forehand Quality (7.5 vs. 7.2), which is pretty important when you think about the weapons you need to end points. This just should be a match in which both players get on the scoreboard, and I definitely give Etcheverry more than a 29% chance of a winning.
In the other match, it’s just hard not to feel like these players come into this one playing at very different levels. Tsitsipas has looked extremely dangerous for good chunks of his wins over Arthur Fils, Lloyd Harris, and Jiri Lehecka. Meanwhile, Shelton has been extremely shaky in wins over Tallon Griekspoor, Hubert Hurkacz, and Denis Shapovalov. This should be a match that features some lengthy sets, as both of these guys can really serve. However, Shelton continues to gift sets to his opponents, yet it hasn’t cost him yet. Can he do that against a locked-in Tsitsipas? I doubt it. The Greek star should have his chances here.
PARLAY: Etcheverry To Win A Set & Tsitsipas To Win A Set (-104 – 2 units)
Bet: Etcheverry ML (+245 – 0.5 units)
Bet: Tsitsipas ML (+220 – 0.5 units)
Tommy Paul vs. Carlos Alcaraz
When we went through the draw on our pre-tournament Beating The Book show, I mentioned that I thought Alcaraz’s run would end against Paul in the fourth round. Well, despite the fact that Alcaraz has looked better than expected so far, I’m putting my money where my mouth is.
Alcaraz hasn’t had to deal with too much adversity this tournament, as he has mostly played weak opponents. But I still want to see what his serve looks like against a strong returner, and Paul is one of the best returners on the planet. I also want to see if the Spaniard’s fitness is good enough for him to grind out a lengthy match. Before arriving in New York, Alcaraz hadn’t played a competitive match in months. Well, how is his body reacting to playing every other day, and can he handle the physicality of a meeting with Paul? The American is going to do everything in his power to extend rallies and ask questions of Alcaraz.
Paul has also had some success against Alcaraz in his career. Sure, this has been a one-sided rivalry lately, but Paul has two victories over Alcaraz. He has also played him pretty close in four of the five matches they have played since the American’s last win. That said, I don’t see Paul heading out there with zero belief, like most do when they take on the seven-time Grand Slam champion.
I’ll also note that this is a match to really pay attention to. If Alcaraz wins with ease, I’ll probably throw in a big play on the Spaniard to win the tournament. If he can handle Paul without any issues, it’ll be clear to me that his level is there.
Bet: Paul To Win A Set (-159 – 1.5 units), Paul To Win Two Sets (+180 – 0.5 units), Paul ML (+400 – 0.25 units)
Taylor Townsend vs. Aryna Sabalenka
Sabalenka has looked like her usual self to start this tournament, but this is where things get interesting. Can the Belarusian keep her composure against a tricky opponent, in an insane environment? Townsend is extremely confident in her ability, she has a unique game, and her connection with the New York crowd is real. Sabalenka is going to be tested mentally in this one, and we sadly have very few reasons to believe she can handle it without a single hiccup.
It should also be noted that Sabalenka has lost two matches in a row against lefties, with one coming against Diana Shnaider and another against Sara Bejlek.
Bet: Townsend To Win A Set (+132) & Townsend ML (+400 – 0.25 units)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
