MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Sunday, September 6.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
1:10 PM Eastern
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Since being traded to the Atlanta Braves from the San Francisco Giants, Tyler Mahle has been superb with a 1.48 ERA, 9.5 strikeouts, and 1.5 walks per nine innings, but overall this season has a 5.42 ERA with over 1.2 home runs per nine innings away from Oracle Park. While Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola has allowed three runs or fewer in each of his past seven starts, he still owns a 4.93 ERA this season with 1.9 home runs and 3.1 walks per nine innings and is supported by a Phillies lineup that is seventh in scoring at home with nearly five runs per game.
Pick: Phillies Moneyline -105 and Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Phillies -133 and Total 8.9
1:35 PM Eastern
Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles
Red Sox starting pitcher Payton Tolle has had a nice season with a 3.23 ERA and 3.28 fielding independent while collecting 10.1 strikeouts per nine innings, but has issued multiple walks in four straight starts and allowed three runs or more in two of his past three starts. Orioles starting pitcher Kyle Bradish has had command issues with career-worsts of 8.3 strikeouts and 3.9 walks per nine innings with a 4.01 ERA, and the Red Sox lead the American League in scoring since the All-Star Break with 5.3 runs per game.
Pick: Red Sox vs. Orioles Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.7
1:40 PM Eastern
San Francisco Giants vs. New York Mets
The Giants are giving Cesar Perdomo his first career MLB start, and it will be just his second career MLB appearance after allowing one run in four innings in his first taste at the big league level. He gets to go up against a Mets lineup that is last in the National League in scoring with less than 4.2 runs per game, while the Giants are second-worst with nearly 4.2 runs per game as well. While Mets starting pitcher Christian Scott has seen his ERA rise to 3.80, he is still getting 10.7 strikeouts per nine innings with only one home run per nine innings allowed.
Pick: Giants vs. Mets Under 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.9
2:10 PM Eastern
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Kansas City Royals
While Randy Dobnak is due for regression on his 2.65 ERA, as he also carries a 4.03 fielding independent with 3.6 walks and 6.2 strikeouts per nine innings, he does get to face a Blue Jays team that is 29th in scoring with about four runs per game. The Blue Jays will have Spencer Arrighetti either start on the mound or pitch bulk innings, and he has had a rough stretch, now owning a 4.80 ERA and 5.20 fielding independent with 1.4 home runs and five walks per nine innings allowed.
Pick: Royals Moneyline +100 and Under 10 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Royals -125 and Total 9.3
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Houston Astros
Diamondbacks starting pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez is pitching to a lot of contact with 6.6 strikeouts and three walks per nine innings, and his 3.71 fielding independent points toward regression on his 2.69 ERA. Astros starting pitcher Peter Lambert has a 3.66 ERA with 8.9 strikeouts and 3.8 walks per nine innings and had a 5.76 ERA in the month of August.
Pick: Diamondbacks vs. Astros Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.6
3:10 PM Eastern
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Colorado Rockies
Cardinals starting pitcher Kyle Leahy has been limited to seven total innings in his past two starts, but has been effective overall with a 3.13 ERA, 8.2 strikeouts, and 0.9 home runs per nine innings allowed. He is supported by a lineup that is third in scoring away from home with 5.2 runs per game. Rockies starting pitcher Tanner Gordon has a 5.18 ERA with 1.7 home runs and 7.3 strikeouts per nine innings while being supported by a bullpen that is 26th in ERA at 4.69.
Pick: Cardinals Moneyline -120
Greg’s Handicap: Cardinals -136
4:10 PM Eastern
Washington Nationals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Nationals starting pitcher Andrew Alvarez is keeping the ball in the yard with only 0.5 home runs per nine innings allowed, but has a 3.47 ERA with a tendency to go short in starts due in part to his 4.1 walks per nine innings. Dodgers pitcher Justin Wrobleski is expected to pitch in some capacity, and while he overall this season has a 3.65 ERA, he owns a 7.07 ERA with 12 home runs allowed in 28 innings since the All-Star Break. He faces a Nationals lineup that is second in the league in scoring with nearly 5.2 runs per game.
Pick: Nationals vs. Dodgers Over 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 9.4
New York Yankees vs. San Diego Padres
Yankees starting pitcher Gerrit Cole is starting to look a bit more like his old self, posting a 3.29 ERA with 9.5 strikeouts and 1.9 walks per nine innings, but faces a Padres lineup that is fourth in the league in scoring since the All-Star Break with over 4.8 runs per game. Padres starting pitcher Michael King might be due for regression on his 3.11 ERA, as he owns a 4.19 fielding independent with 7.8 strikeouts and 3.5 walks per nine innings.
Pick: Yankees vs. Padres Over 7 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.7
