MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Tuesday, September 1.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
6:40 PM Eastern
New York Mets vs. Tampa Bay Rays
While Rays pitcher Freddy Peralta looked significantly better in his last start than he has over the past two months, throwing six shutout innings against the Detroit Tigers, he still has a career-worst 8.5 strikeouts per nine innings and a 5.11 ERA, including a 6.83 ERA with 1.9 home runs per nine innings in his past 12 starts. Mets starting pitcher Sean Manaea owns a 4.55 ERA with 1.5 home runs and 2.9 walks per nine innings allowed and has surrendered at least four runs in each of his past three starts.
Pick: Rays Moneyline -120 and Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Rays -134 and Total 8.2
6:45 PM Eastern
Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals
While the Nationals overall this season are second in the league in scoring with nearly 5.2 runs per game, many of their top home run hitters were traded at the deadline in August, and the team is dealing with an injury to top home run hitter James Wood. This should help Braves starting pitcher AJ Smith-Shawver find his groove, as he had a 3.86 ERA with 8.5 strikeouts and 0.8 home runs per nine innings allowed in 2025. This season, he owns a 5.93 ERA, but that comes in a 13 2/3-inning sample size with a lower 4.33 fielding independent. Nationals starting pitcher Jake Irvin owns a 5.62 ERA with 1.5 home runs and 4.3 walks per nine innings, but benefits from facing a Braves lineup that averaged only 3.6 runs per game in the month of August, the second-lowest output among National League teams.
Pick: Braves Run Line -1.5 -105 and Under 10 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Braves -1.5 -124 and Total 9.3
7:40 PM Eastern
Miami Marlins vs. Kansas City Royals
Royals starting pitcher Randy Dobnak seems overdue for regression on his 1.92 ERA, as he has a 3.74 fielding independent with 5.9 strikeouts and 3.7 walks per nine innings. Marlins starting pitcher Tyler Phillips is posting a 3.59 ERA with a much higher 4.55 fielding independent with 7.3 strikeouts and 3.8 walks per nine innings, with his ERA skyrocketing to 5.83 away from home compared to 2.12 at home. The Royals as a team have huge splits with a 36-30 home record and over 4.9 runs per game, while averaging a league-low 3.6 runs per game on the road with a 26-46 record.
Pick: Royals Moneyline -115 and Over 9.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Royals -136 and Total 9.8
8:05 PM Eastern
Athletics vs. Texas Rangers
Athletics starting pitcher JT Ginn has a 3.71 ERA and 4.36 fielding independent with 7.9 strikeouts and 3.7 walks per nine innings and gave up at least three runs in all five of his August starts. Rangers starting pitcher MacKenzie Gore has a 4.40 ERA but a lower 3.71 fielding independent with 9.9 strikeouts per nine innings, and both teams are struggling with their bullpens, as the Rangers are 28th in bullpen ERA since July 1 at 5.40, while the Athletics are 30th at 6.59.
Pick: Rangers Run Line -1.5 +120 and Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Rangers -1.5 +103 and Total 8.4
9:40 PM Eastern
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Diamondbacks starting pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez has a 2.50 ERA this season with only four runs allowed in his past four starts, but his 3.70 fielding independent with 6.6 strikeouts and 2.9 walks per nine innings points toward regression. Phillies starting pitcher Jesús Luzardo overall has a 3.09 ERA with 11.2 strikeouts per nine innings and a 2.79 fielding independent, along with a 1.79 ERA away from home with only two home runs allowed in 85 1/3 innings. However, he is supported by a bullpen that has a 4.64 ERA since July 1, which ranks 24th in baseball in that span, while the Diamondbacks are fourth in scoring since the All-Star Break with 5.1 runs per game and the Phillies are sixth in run creation since the All-Star Break with just under five runs per game.
Pick: Phillies vs. Diamondbacks Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.4
10:10 PM Eastern
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodgers starting pitcher Eric Lauer has been allowing a lot of hard contact this season with a 4.78 ERA and 5.80 fielding independent with 2.1 home runs allowed and six strikeouts per nine innings. Cardinals starting pitcher Michael McGreevy pitches to a lot of contact himself with a 3.89 ERA, 1.3 home runs allowed, and 6.2 strikeouts per nine innings and is supported by a Cardinals lineup that is third in scoring on the road with 5.1 runs per game. The Cardinals bullpen also ranks 25th in ERA since July 1 at 4.66.
Pick: Cardinals vs. Dodgers Over 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 9.3
