The 2026 tennis season reaches its peak with the 2026 US Open in New York, with the final Grand Slam of the year getting underway at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center. The summer hard-court tune-ups are behind us, and now the margin for error disappears as the best players in the world battle across best-of-five and grueling best-of-three tests in the Flushing Meadows heat.
The fortnight always brings unmatched betting value on both tours, offering an early look at physical durability, tactical adjustments, and draw paths that could shape the championship picture. There is no shortage of high-level matchups to break down, and I’ll be delivering daily betting analysis and best bets throughout the tournament.
With that in mind, keep reading for my top tennis picks and best bets for Day 11 of the US Open on Wednesday, September 9.
NOTE: Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game, posts a bunch of tennis plays to the VSiN picks page. He does a great job handicapping tennis. That page is also where I post all of my Challenger-level picks + plays for all of the tournaments I’m not writing up daily.
Botic van de Zandschulp vs. Alexander Zverev
Zverev looked much better in wins over Alejandro Tabilo and Luciano Darderi than he did in five-set victories over Lorenzo Sonego and Quentin Halys, but it’s still pretty clear that the German isn’t in top form. So, even with van de Zandschulp coming off one of the longest matches in US Open history, I’m taking my chances with the Dutchman to win a set in this match.
Zverev should be very comfortable when it comes to actually beating van de Zandschulp, as the Dutchman really should lose steam at some point later in this match. However, a tired opponent can occasionally be a dangerous opponent, as they often play with more freedom. That said, there’s a good chance we see van de Zandschulp swinging freely, hoping to end points quickly. That would be problematic for the Zverev we have seen at in Flushing, as the German has resorted to pushing from the back of the court. The aggression we saw over the summer hasn’t been there.
Van de Zandschulp also happens to be very comfortable from the backhand wing, so he won’t mind trading with the elite Zverev two-hander. So, a lot of this matchup could come down to who has the hotter forehand. That gives van de Zandschulp a bit of a puncher’s chance.
Bet: Van de Zandschulp To Win A Set (-114)
Karen Khachanov vs. Alexander Blockx
I was able to get Khachanov to make the semifinals at a prediction market, which is an awesome play for a few reasons. First, Khachanov is up at -175 to beat Blockx at certain sportsbooks, so it’s a better price on the match itself. But the more important reason is that Blockx might not play this match. The Belgian noted after his win over Francisco Cerundolo that he was dangerously close to retiring in Set 3, but his pain meds ended up helping him finish the match. Then, Blockx said that he can’t promise he’d play the quarterfinals, as the injury was something he was dealing with before his Round of 16 match. That said, we can cash this ticket with Khachanov beating a wounded opponent, or with Blockx withdrawing from the tournament. That’s a good enough reason to jump on the Russian.
By the way, if you can’t find Khachanov to reach the semifinals at 61 cents, you should be able to find Blockx to not make the semifinals at the same price. Just act as quickly as possible after reading this, as there’s no guarantee it’ll be up forever. These odds are moving fast.
Bet: Khachanov Semifinal Qualifier (61 cents – 1.5 units)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
