Jessica Pegula was able to beat world No. 1 Iga Swiatek to make it to her first Grand Slam semi-final, but a red-hot Karolina Muchova could be an even tougher challenge. When healthy, Muchova is one of the best players on the WTA Tour, and her play over the last two weeks has generated a lot of buzz. So, with a spot in the US Open final on the line, this match feels like a legitimate toss-up. I had pre-tournament futures on both of these players, so I have been watching them very closely. With that in mind, keep reading for my Muchova vs. Pegula analysis.
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2024 Record: 764-753 (+31.67 units)
Karolina Muchova vs. Jessica Pegula Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish, but make sure you shop around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Pegula -165, Muchova +125
Spread: Pegula -2.5 Games (-110), Muchova +2.5 Games (-120)
Total: Over 22.5 (-105), Under 22.5 (-125)
How To Watch Karolina Muchova vs. Jessica Pegula
Where: Arthur Ashe Stadium in Flushing Meadows, New York
When: Scheduled for 8:30 pm ET on Thursday, September 5th
Channel: ESPN/ESPN+
Karolina Muchova vs. Jessica Pegula Predictions
I went into this tournament with Muchova at 10-1 to win Quarter 2 and Pegula at 12-1 to win the event. Fortunately, Muchova making the semifinals helped me win back some of the losses from my other futures. I’m now one win away from Pegula setting up some profitable outcomes. That said, I won’t be playing anything in this match. However, I know a lot of people will be interested in this one, and my advice would be to go with Pegula at anything -150 or better.
It’s never wise to put too much into a recent head-to-head matchup, but Pegula overwhelmed Muchova a bit in Cincinnati. The Czech actually won the first set of that match 7-5, but the American was a much better player in the final two sets. And the interesting thing about that match is that Pegula was in a pretty big letdown spot. The American had just won a 1000-level event in Toronto, so nobody would have blamed her for suffering an early-round loss against a spectacular opponent. But once Pegula settled into the match, her flat, powerful groundstrokes gave Muchova some trouble. Pegula also won that match despite making only 43.0% of her first serves in the final set. So, with Pegula serving a heck of a lot better in New York, I like her chances of beating the Czech again.
Of course, Muchova’s level in New York has been a lot better than it was in Cincinnati. She has been insanely confident in her approach from the baseline, and her play at the net is as good as anyone’s on the WTA Tour. That play at the net has also been dialed in at this tournament. On top of that, Muchova is looking dangerous as a server. But the Czech did give Beatriz Haddad Maia some opportunities to come back in their quarter-final match, but the Brazilian just wasn’t playing well enough to take advantage. Muchova was clearly nervous though. And if she brings any of that to this meeting with Pegula, the American should be able to jump on her. Muchova also said that she’s dealing with a stomach bug, and that small issue can come back to haunt you in a matchup like this.
Look for Muchova to do her best to come to the net often in this match. That has been her bread and butter throughout the tournament, and ending points quickly is a good strategy for a player that isn’t 100%. But Pegula is good at passing opponents, or hitting lobs deep enough to force errors out of them.
This is also a match in which the crowd could be a big factor. Pegula is the best player on the WTA Tour that doesn’t yet have a major, and the American crowd is going to do everything it can to help her reach the final. That adrenaline helped her against Swiatek. I trust her to channel it and use it positively again.
Lean: Pegula ML (-143)
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