The final major of the 2024 tennis season is here, as we’re already about a week into the US Open. The competition in Flushing Meadows has been fierce, as the top players in the world are hoping for one last big result at a Grand Slam. With that in mind, I’ll be handicapping all of the action over the next couple of weeks. That continues with my Day 5 tennis predictions and best bets for Friday, August 30th. Keep reading for some of my favorite selections for this loaded slate, but don’t stop there. Gill Alexander will be posting his best bets on the VSiN picks page daily, and I’ll also be adding some additional plays there.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2024 Record: 750-739 (+30.60 units)
Jiri Lehecka vs. Andrey Rublev
I’m not personally playing anything in this match, as I already have Lehecka to win the quarter at 25-1 odds. However, I do think that playing Over 3.5 sets is a good idea. I also wouldn’t hate a play on Lehecka to win the first set. The Czech just played a grueling five-set match against Mitchell Krueger, but he should have his energy early in this battle with Rublev.
Lehecka is exactly the type of player that Rublev tends to struggle against. Lehecka has one of the biggest serves on the ATP Tour, so he’s going to punish the ball and rack up easy holds. Meanwhile, Rublev’s serve can occasionally get away from him. And the Russian’s second serve is especially problematic. He softly rolls it in to avoid double faults, so aggressive returners can take advantage of that.
With all of that in mind, it’s just hard to imagine Lehecka not putting a dent in the scoreboard here. And Rublev is too talented to go down in straights. So, essentially taking a “both players to win a set” bet is the right move. You can find that at -137 odds. Or, if you want to be bold and jump on Lehecka to win Set 1, I saw that out there at +174.
Tallon Griekspoor vs. Grigor Dimitrov
Griekspoor wasn’t playing all that well heading into the US Open. He lost his first match in Montreal and Cincinnati. However, a lot of that can be chalked up to Griekspoor having played in the Paris Olympics. A lot of players struggled with going from clay to hard courts, and the move from Europe to the United States didn’t help. Since settling in, Griekspoor has started to find his game. He won in straight sets in his opening-round match against Sumit Nagal in this tournament, and he was on his way to squashing Sebastian Baez before the Argentine retired. Griekspoor was up 6-1, 2-0 on the 21st seed. Now, it’s hard not to like Griekspoor to play a competitive match against Dimitrov.
Dimitrov has more all-around game than Griekspoor, and it’s really not even close. He’s a better returner, mover and baseline player. Dimitrov also comes to the court with more variety. But Griekspoor has one of the best serves on the ATP Tour. That makes it hard to imagine him getting blown off the court here, even if Dimitrov has a higher hold percentage in 2024.
Griekspoor simply isn’t easy to dismantle in a best-of-five match. In fact, his last two losses at majors came in thrilling five-set matches, and one of those was against Alexander Zverev. All in all, you just shouldn’t be surprised if these two play several long sets, and Griekspoor could even win one or two of them. That’s why you’ll want to have the games in this matchup.
Bet: Griekspoor +6.5 Games (-148 – 1.5 units)
Brandon Nakashima vs. Lorenzo Musetti
Nakashima has had an unbelievable 2024 season thus far. The American is 26-8 at the Challenger level and 20-16 on the ATP Tour. This is a player that has always had a ton of talent, but staying healthy has been an issue for him. Well, Nakashima has consistently been on the court this year, and he’s now up to No. 41 in the live rankings. With his massive first serve and all-court power, I completely understand why he’s viewed as a favorite to beat Musetti on hard courts. And that’s especially true with Musetti having played a physical opening-round match against Reilly Opelka, a big server, and a five-set match against Miomir Kecmanovic in the second round. However, I’d be really surprised if this match ends in straight sets.
While Nakashima is the far better server between these two, Musetti has him beat in every other aspect of the game. So, all it will take is one loose service game for the American to drop a set. Or, if these two go to a tiebreaker, Musetti’s edge in baseline ability and shot variety could help him win out. That said, I’d be stunned if Musetti loses in straights. And if Musetti does end up winning as an underdog, I don’t see it happening in straight sets either. Nakashima’s serve is just a little too good for that to happen.
I know this play is juicy and it can be hard to stomach a bet like this. But these Over 3.5 set plays are gold in close matchups. Once the first set is over, you just root for the player that lost it.
Bet: Over 3.5 Sets (-170)
Elina Svitolina vs. Coco Gauff
I have been looking for a fade spot with Gauff all tournament. I sort of took a shot in the opening round, playing Varvara Gracheva to go Over her individual game total, but Gauff brought her A-game there. However, I think the run ends here for the defending champion. Gauff’s poor serving showed up in her 6-4, 6-0 win over Tatjana Maria last round. She made just 44% of her first serves and double faulted nine times in the match. Gauff was just fortunate to be playing somebody that didn’t possess the weapons to take advantage of that. But Svitolina won’t let that type of poor serving slide. She has all sorts of power and isn’t shy about taking her chances. So, if Gauff isn’t putting first serves in, Svitolina is going to hammer her returns.
Svitolina also has the ability to hang with Gauff along the baseline, and the Ukrainian is smart enough to know that she needs to attack the American’s forehand. Going to that side of the court is the easiest way to extract errors from Gauff’s racquet, and Svitolina is going to do it regularly.
The crowd is definitely going to play a role in this match at some point, as the fans absolutely love Gauff. That’s why I’m going bigger on the spread bet than the moneyline. But I’m not sure the energy in New York is enough to save this version of Gauff. There are too many holes in her game at the moment.
Bet: Svitolina +1.5 Sets (-138 – 2 units) + Svitolina ML (+209 – 0.5 units)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action. That’s also where I put my Challenger-level plays, as well as picks for lower level ATP and WTA events.
