The final major of the 2024 tennis season is here, as we’re already about a week into the US Open. The competition in Flushing Meadows has been fierce, as the top players in the world are hoping for one last big result at a Grand Slam. With that in mind, I’ll be handicapping all of the action over the next week or so. That continues with my Day 7 tennis predictions and best bets for Sunday, September 1st. Keep reading for some of my favorite selections for this loaded slate, but don’t stop there. Gill Alexander will be posting his best bets on the VSiN picks page daily, and I’ll also be adding some additional plays there.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2024 Record: 755-744 (+31.64 units)
Grigor Dimitrov vs. Andrey Rublev
This is suddenly one of the most interesting matches of the entire tournament. These are two excellent players that haven’t had much success at the Grand Slam level. But with Novak Djokovic having been eliminated by Alexei Popyrin, there’s suddenly a good chance one of these two ends up in the semifinals. And I tend to think it’ll be Dimitrov.
Rublev has a little more raw power, and he can be impossible to beat when he’s consistently finding the court. However, Rublev isn’t the greatest server in the world, and his second serve is a real issue. The Russian is also a serious headcase, capable of losing his cool at any moment. That’s why it’s a little easier to roll with Dimitrov, who is one of the best servers on the ATP Tour and is as cool as a cucumber whenever he’s out there. Dimitrov knows that if he hits his spots with his serve, and does a good job of timing his approaches to the net, he should give himself chances to win this match.
Realistically, there’s a clearer path towards Dimitrov winning than Rublev. That wouldn’t have been the case in past years, but Dimitrov continues to get better with age and Rublev isn’t adding enough to his game.
Bet: Dimitrov ML (+100 – 1.5 units)
Taylor Fritz vs. Casper Ruud
Fritz has a better hard-court record than Ruud in his career, but the Norwegian has actually been better on this surface over the last 52 weeks. On top of that, Ruud is a three-time Grand Slam runner-up, is higher in the ATP rankings and has a 2-0 head-to-head record against Fritz in tour-level matches. So, while Fritz appears to be in better form than Ruud right now, I can’t understand these odds. Fritz’s implied win probability in this match is 73%. How does that make any sense? He has a .500 record at the US Open and has struggled handling the pressure that comes with being a top-ranked American in New York.
Considering all of that, I’m putting a big play on Ruud to cover a 5.5-game spread. I’m also sprinkling the moneyline. I think Ruud’s capable of getting through his service games just as easily as Fritz in these conditions, and I also like the Norwegian’s baseline style a little more. Fritz can flatten out his shots and pound the ball occasionally, but Ruud is better at taking control of points by moving opponents around with his big topspin forehand. Ruud is also really good about using his quick feet to set himself up to punish short balls.
I also think that getting on Ruud’s form is a little unfair. His performances in Montreal and Cincinnati can easily be explained by the illness that forced him to withdraw in Canada. Now that he’s somewhat healthy again, he has looked quite good. Sure, Ruud has played a few bad sets at this tournament, but he found his level when he needed to against Juncheng Shang. He also mostly played well against Gael Monfils. That said, I think this price is a little fluky.
Bet: Ruud +5.5 Games (-143 – 2 units) & Ruud ML (+260 – 0.5 units)
Emma Navarro vs. Coco Gauff
I went big on Elina Svitolina to win a set against Gauff last round. The Ukrainian ended up taking the first one, making for a stress-free win. However, I did lose a small play on Svitolina to win outright. And while that was a little unfortunate, I’m now able to fade Gauff again. This time I get to do it with Navarro, who beat Gauff in straight sets at Wimbledon.
Gauff has played a little better since arriving in New York, which is to be expected considering her home-court advantage. However, she did have nine double faults in her win over Tatjana Maria two rounds ago, and he first serve percentage has been absurdly low all tournament. That’s going to catch up to her eventually, and it could very well happen here. Navarro is 10th in the world in break percentage over the last 52 weeks, so she’s one of the most dangerous returners on the planet. When you combine that with the fact that she’s also a solid server, this is a tough matchup for this version of Gauff.
Not only does Navarro hold up well when it comes to serving and returning, but her decisiveness and calm demeanor give her an edge from the baseline here. She’s going to simply look for ways to exploit Gauff’s weaknesses, and she won’t get rattled when the defending champion uses her world-class athleticism to win exciting points.
All in all, it’d just be shocking if Gauff wins this match in straight sets. Gauff’s best chance of winning is peppering Navarro’s backhand and hoping she’s off with it. But Gauff’s baseline game isn’t in a good enough place to target anything right now.
Bet: Navarro +1.5 Sets (-142 – 2 units) & Navarro ML (+202 – 0.5 units)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action. That’s also where I put my Challenger-level plays, as well as picks for lower level ATP and WTA events.
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