The final major of the 2024 tennis season is here, as it’s already time for the US Open. The competition in Flushing Meadows will be fierce, as the top players in the world will be hoping for one last big result at a Grand Slam. With that in mind, I’ll be handicapping all of the action over the next couple of weeks. That continues with my Day 4 tennis predictions and best bets for Thursday, August 29th. Keep reading for some of my favorite selections for this loaded slate, but don’t stop there. Gill Alexander will be posting his best bets on the VSiN picks page daily, and I’ll also be adding some additional plays there.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2024 Record: 737-729 (+29.64 units)
Facundo Diaz Acosta vs. Jack Draper
I’m as high on Draper’s game as anyone, but I’m not understanding the respect he’s getting in this match. The Brit should be able to beat Diaz Acosta, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he does it in straight sets. However, Diaz Acosta is fully capable of playing some competitive tennis within each set, and that would allow him to cover this game spread easily.
Diaz Acosta is billed as a clay-court specialist, which isn’t that crazy considering he’s 15-9 on the dirt over the last 52 weeks. But there’s no reason the Argentine can’t eventually find some success on hard courts. Diaz Acosta plays an aggressive brand of tennis, and I like the way he hunts his forehand on the court. Diaz Acosta is also a pretty solid server, which is crucial in a bet like this one. If he can just pick up a few easy holds each set, he’s going to win enough games to cover here. He won’t even have to do much work as a returner, but he is definitely capable of putting some pressure on the Draper serve.
I know that Draper just dismantled a good opponent in Z.Z. Zhang, but Diaz Acosta is a fighter and he won’t be as easy to hit off the court. Also, while it is supposed to be a cool 76 degrees on Thursday, it is going to be rather humid in New York. Draper has had his issues dealing with humidity in the past.
Bet: Diaz Acosta +8.5 Games (-147 – 2 units)
Daniel Evans vs. Mariano Navone
Evans is coming off the longest match in US Open history. His 6-7 (8), 7-6 (2), 7-6 (4), 4-6, 6-4 win over Karen Khachanov took five hours and 35 minutes. It was a very impressive result for the Brit, who deserves some good fortune after having prioritized playing for Britain in the Olympics over his own ATP Tour ranking. However, Evans now has to face an absolute grinder in the second round, and I’m just not sure the Brit has what it takes to get through this one.
Navone isn’t much of a hard-court player, but he has turned in some decent results on the surface lately. He had a good showing in a loss to Jiri Lehecka in Cincinnati a couple of weeks ago, and he also played well in a 7-5, 6-3 loss to Juncheng Shang in Winston Salem. Navone then earned a 1-6, 6-2, 6-4, 6-1 win over Daniel Altmaier in the opening round here. Navone, who is just 23 years old, is clearly making strides on the surface. And he now faces a player that doesn’t possess nearly as much power as his previous few opponents. So, Navone should be able to take advantage of the matchup.
Navone isn’t much of a server, but he is an elite returner. So, he’s going to give himself a lot of chances to break Evans, who hasn’t served very well in 2024. And overall, I think Navone is going to have the edge from the baseline here. That said, this is another spot to load up.
Bet: Navone ML (+102 – 2 units)
Max Purcell vs. Tommy Paul
Paul is going to be expected to win this match rather easily, but there’s a special type of pressure that comes with that. The American also happens to be a player that can let his guard down pretty often. We saw it in his meeting with Lorenzo Sonego last match. Paul was cruising to a straight-set win in that one, as he was up a break in the third and all seemed good. Then, from out of nowhere, Sonego broke back and ended up stealing the third set. Paul was able to come through with a victory in four sets, and he didn’t really have to sweat much. But those mental lapses make it hard to trust him to win in straight sets, and he’s facing an opponent that could give him some trouble in these conditions.
Purcell doesn’t have nearly as much overall game as Paul, but the Australian has a big serve and is an effective serve-and-volley player. So, he should be able to work his way deep into a few of these sets and give himself a chance to steal one. That’s ultimately why I’m playing him on the set spread. At some point, I think Purcell is going to break through and break Paul’s serve, or the Australian will come through with a tiebreaker win.
Bet: Purcell To Win A Set (+103 – 1.5 units)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action. That’s also where I put my Challenger-level plays, as well as picks for lower level ATP and WTA events.
