In a rematch of last year’s Wimbledon final, Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic will clash to determine the season’s third major. Last year, Alcaraz outlasted Djokovic in a 1-6, 7-6, 6-1, 3-6, 6-4 victory. It was an epic match and served as a big win on Alcaraz’s resume. A lot of people wanted to see the Spaniard win at least one major while Djokovic was still playing at a high level. Well, Alcaraz answered the call by doing so on Djokovic’s favorite surface. Fast forward to now and Alcaraz is looking to become the first player to win the French Open and Wimbledon in the same season since Djokovic did it in 2021. Alcaraz is favored to get the job done, but Djokovic has won his last two ATP-level matches against the 21-year-old. The 24-time Grand Slam champion also happens to be looking extremely healthy after having had his meniscus repaired just one month ago. That said, this is going to be an extremely exciting matchup. Keep reading if you want an Alcaraz vs. Djokovic betting preview, where I’ll give you my final Wimbledon prediction.
I also post more tennis predictions on the Pro Picks page. I occasionally add some picks throughout the day, as I like to see how odds are moving. So, keep checking that page every couple of hours if you want more of my picks. I’ll also post plays for smaller tournaments on that page.
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2024 Record: 510-515 (+33.62 units)
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Novak Djokovic Odds
Moneyline: Alcaraz -150, Djokovic +120
Spread: Alcaraz -1.5 Games (-115), Djokovic +1.5 Games (-105)
Total: Over 40.5 Games (-120), Under 40.5 Games (-105)
How To Watch Carlos Alcaraz vs. Novak Djokovic
Where: All England Club in London, England
When: Sunday, July 14th
Channel: ESPN
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Novak Djokovic Predictions
I have no problem putting my hand up and admitting that I wish never advised bettors not to back Djokovic to win this event at +400 odds. At the very least, that would have set up some great hedging opportunities here. However, I gave that advice out before the draw was released and it absolutely blew up in my face. Djokovic got the clearest path to a final imaginable, with Holger Rune being the toughest opponent he faced to this point. And Rune didn’t show up to play in their fourth-round match. The 21-year-old was spraying errors all over the court, and he was doing so early in rallies. Rune never even tested Djokovic’s legs or overall fitness. Djokovic was also pretty fortunate that a red-hot Alex de Minaur was unable to compete in their quarter-final match. De Minaur is a good grass-court player and plays an insanely physical brand of tennis. The Australian would have been a great test for the seven-time Wimbledon champion.
Of course, Djokovic does deserve some credit for not giving Rune much of anything, and the Serbian also played a fantastic semi-final match against Lorenzo Musetti. He has dialed his serve back in, hitting his spots in big situations. He’s also doing a better job than expected of extending rallies. Realistically, the knee doesn’t even look like a problem. The real issue is that Djokovic still hasn’t faced elite competition, and it’s hard to shake what we saw from the Serbian early in the 2024 season. It’s only July and Djokovic has already lost more matches this season than he did in any season from 2020 to 2023. And we saw some shocking losses from the 37-year-old, including a loss to Luca Nardi at Indian Wells, a straight-set beatdown at the hands of Alejandro Tabilo in Rome and a three-set loss to Tomas Machac in Geneva. All of that makes it hard to believe he’ll beat a player of Alcaraz’s caliber — especially in a best-of-five match.
I have been pretty critical of Alcaraz’s play this season, but he has proven that his B- game is good enough to win on the biggest stages. He played a lousy tournament at Roland Garros and still got through Jannik Sinner and Alexander Zverev in the final two matches. Things haven’t been all that different in London. Alcaraz’s serve has been all over the place and the 21-year-old has been tossing away sets like it’s nothing. But one thing that Alcaraz has been able to do is lock it down when he feels he’s in trouble. The Spaniard can be guilty of going for big shots in weird situations, and his flashiness is sometimes his biggest weakness. But he tends to cut those mistakes out when his back is against the wall. And Alcaraz is going to play like his back is against the wall right from the jump here. He knows that the greatest player in tennis history is on the other side of the net and has beaten him twice in a row.
Look for Alcaraz to throw absolutely everything at Djokovic in this one. The Spaniard is going to go to the serve-and-volley game regularly when it’s his turn to serve, and that’s something that has worked in this specific matchup in the past. Alcaraz takes a bit off the serve and focuses on getting it way out wide to get Djokovic off the court. Then he rushes the net and calmly puts the point away. And when these two are involved in baseline exchanges, look for Alcaraz to target what has been a shaky Djokovic forehand. Alcaraz will also mix in the drop shot rather frequently here. Musetti tried to test Djokovic’s knee with some droppers, but the Italian just doesn’t have that in his bag. Alcaraz has one of the best drop shots on the planet, and he disguises it well.
Alcaraz is also just built differently than most, both physically and mentally. He has the endurance required to throw the kitchen sink at Djokovic and still have his legs in the fourth and fifth sets. That’s not usually the case for Djokovic. He usually has his opponents gasping for air by the end of his matches. Alcaraz also believes that he is on Djokovic’s level, at the very least. Players like Musetti have the talent to hang with Djokovic for a little, but they don’t trust their guns in the biggest moments. That’s why you see Djokovic breaking late in sets or winning tiebreakers. That is not an issue with Alcaraz. He has beaten Djokovic before and he knows he’ll do it again.
Overall, I think we’ll see another major out of Djokovic when all is said and done. But I’d still be surprised if he wins his 25th Grand Slam title this soon after surgery, and that’s especially true considering he’s getting Alcaraz in the final. If this was Daniil Medvedev or Sinner, who isn’t there physically right now, I probably would have played Djokovic.
Bet: Alcaraz ML (-150 – 2 units)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
