Wimbledon predictions and best bets for Day 1 – June 30th:
There’s nothing better than grass-court tennis at the All England Club, so we’re excited about Wimbledon over here at VSiN. I already posted some of my 2025 Wimbledon futures, so make sure you check those out if you want some longer shots. However, I’m also going to be providing you with daily tennis best bets throughout. That starts with the action on Monday, June 30th, so keep reading for my Day 1 Wimbledon picks.
I also post more tennis plays on the Pro Picks page. I occasionally add picks throughout the day, as I like to see how odds are moving. So, keep checking that page every couple of hours if you want more of my action. That’s also where you’ll find picks from Gill Alexander, who does great work handicapping tennis on A Numbers Game. You can watch Gill analyze tennis Monday to Friday from 10:00 am to noon ET. That said, if you like tennis, you might want to consider becoming a VSiN Pro.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2025 Record: 813-786-1 (+35.27 units)
Oliver Tarvet vs. Leandro Riedi
This isn’t exactly a blockbuster matchup, but I’m excited about backing Tarvet at plus-money odds. The 21-year-old from the University of San Diego is making a bit of noise this summer. He finished the college tennis season as the No. 5 singles player, and now he’s back home in Britain with a spot in the Wimbledon main draw. Tarvet handled qualifying with the kind of poise you’d expect from someone who’s spent time grinding out tough matches at the NCAA level. His game isn’t flashy, but it’s built on grit, movement and a willingness to hang in rallies until his opponent blinks.
Tarvet got a pretty manageable matchup with Riedi, a Swiss player who’s been solid at the Challenger level, especially on grass, but hasn’t yet won a main-draw ATP match on the surface. Riedi brings a big serve and likes to dictate, but Tarvet’s comfort on grass and his ability to problem-solve could make this interesting. If Tarvet can keep Riedi off balance and extend points, he’s got a real shot to pull off the upset. Riedi doesn’t want to play longer points, which is why the Swiss likes to play on this surface to begin with. But Tarvet showed he can dig in and extend rallies in his qualifying win over Alexander Blockx, and I think he can make this messy enough to beat Riedi. It’s a classic contrast: one guy with the bigger weapons, the other with the edge in resilience and adaptability. I’ll take the latter in a match in which the home crowd will be supplying Tarvet with a little extra juice.
Bet: Tarvet ML (+118)
Katie Boulter vs. Paula Badosa
Boulter is worth a shot in her opening-round match against Badosa, and that’s especially true at a shop like FanDuel that pays for opening-set retirements. Badosa has had a lot of trouble staying healthy in recent years, and she just retired after losing the first set of her match against Xinyu Wang in Berlin. The scary thing about that is that Badosa’s injury-driven retirements and withdrawals tend to come in waves. So, if the Spaniard gets off to a slow start against Boulter, I can see her retiring at some point in this match. However, Boulter does have a shot at beating a healthy Badosa anyway.
It’s just hard not to like the fact that Boulter is 32-18 on grass in her career. That 64.0% winning percentage is the best she has on any surface, by far. Meanwhile, Badosa is just 16-12 on this surface. That’s a significant gap in grass-court wins and overall grass-court experience. On top of that, Boulter is going to have a pretty significant home-court advantage, and Badosa is a player that can get rattled pretty easily.
Boulter is also just an extremely aggressive ball striker, so she won’t allow Badosa to dictate play here. But even if the Spaniard is getting ahead in rallies, Boulter has the ability to fight her way back into points — which is fitting for somebody that is set to marry Alex de Minaur in the near future.
Overall, I feel this match is a little closer to 55-45 than 60-40, so I’m playing the number with Boulter.
Bet: Boulter ML (+152 – Try to play this at a shop that pays out first-set retirements)
Botic van de Zandschulp vs. Matteo Arnaldi
This hasn’t been a great year for van de Zandschulp. The 29-year-old is just 4-11 since the start of the 2025 season, and he’s winless in his last four matches. However, on grass, he does have the game to challenge Arnaldi. Van de Zandschulp might not be too accomplished on this surface, but he is 9-11 in main-draw matches on grass at the ATP level. Meanwhile, Arnaldi is just 1-5 on grass in his career. That’s simply not enough exposure for the Italian.
Arnaldi will eventually figure out how to win on this surface, but it’ll take a decent number of matches for him to do that. Well, Arnaldi only played one in the short grass-court season leading up to Wimbledon, losing 6-4, 6-4 against Jan Lennard Struff in Stuttgart. That means Arnaldi has played a total of three grass-court matches over the last 52 weeks, giving him very little time to make adjustments and find his footing.
If van de Zandschulp just has a decent day as a server here, he should be extremely live to win. He moves well for a player his size and he keeps his groundstrokes low and flat. That should be enough to frustrate Arnaldi. And it’s certainly enough for me to play him at +114.
Bet: Van de Zandschulp (+114)
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs. Taylor Fritz
While Fritz is widely viewed as the favorite, this matchup is far from straightforward. The American’s well-rounded game and recent momentum — highlighted by title runs in Stuttgart and Eastbourne — give him a clear edge on paper. However, this draw is a bit of a nightmare. Mpetshi Perricard, despite a disappointing 6-13 record in 2025, is a player who can be impossible to break on grass, boasting an impressive 91.7% hold percentage on the surface. That alone signals that Fritz will need to be sharp to avoid getting dragged into an absolute war.
Mpetshi Perricard’s ability to hang around on this surface is notable. He has competed in 20 grass-court matches, including qualifying rounds, and has managed to win at least one set in 16 of those. And many of those matches were best-of-three, so he’ll have a little more time to get on the scoreboard here.
With a booming serve and a knack for tiebreaks — he has played 20 tiebreakers in as many grass-court matches — Mpetshi Perricard is well-equipped to turn this match into a tense, unpredictable affair. So, while Fritz is the more consistent player from the baseline and will likely win more return points overall, his return game is not good enough to break Mpetshi Perricard’s serve with regularity. As a result, expect multiple tiebreakers, where Mpetshi Perricard’s serve can be a great equalizer and Fritz’s recent tiebreak record (7-12 since the start of 2025) is less than stellar.
Fatigue could also play a role. Fritz arrives at Wimbledon after a demanding schedule, having played eight matches in two weeks, which raises questions about his stamina after a year in which he has struggled to stay healthy.
Ultimately, while Fritz should advance, this match could be a marathon, and Mpetshi Perricard is more than capable of stealing a set or two. Between this meeting with Mpetshi Perricard and a potential second-round showdown with Gabriel Diallo, Fritz is in for some tough, drawn-out battles.
Bet: Over 3.5 Sets (-161)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
