After a French Open in which Iga Swiatek predictably won her fifth Grand Slam title, the wide-open nature of Wimbledon should be a breath of fresh air. Aryna Sabalenka enters the event as the betting favorite, but it’s hardly a certainty that she’ll win. In fact, she’s just a hair above Swiatek on the odds board, and Elena Rybakina and Coco Gauff aren’t too far behind. The women’s game also happens to have several other contenders on grass, so let’s take a look at the draw and get into some Wimbledon futures.
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Wimbledon Women’s Draw Analysis
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Quarter 1: I took Swiatek at +330 to win this tournament early in June, but I’m not feeling great about it now. After I put that play in, Swiatek pulled out of her only tune-up event, opting not to play in Berlin. So, Wimbledon will be Swiatek’s only grass-court event of the season, and she has been lousy on this surface to begin with. On top of that, Swiatek has a rough draw. The Pole could have a third-round matchup with Katerina Siniakova, who is excellent on grass. And if she wins that, it’s not impossible that she’ll face Jelena Ostapenko. The Latvian is one of the only players on the planet that has Swiatek’s number. With so many potential landmines early, it’s just impossible to get on board with the idea of Swiatek winning this event this year. I do think she’ll win it eventually, but she needs to take it a little more seriously — and might need some draw help.
Quarter 2: This is shaping up to be the most interesting portion of the bracket. Rybakina, who won this tournament two years ago, has the ability to beat anybody on this surface. But Rybakina has been on and off the court all year, making it hard for her to establish any rhythm. And this quarter is also loaded with talent. Liudmila Samsonova and Anna Kalinskaya are two players with the potential to make a run to the quarters here. And in the bottom half of this quarter, there’s Ons Jabuer, Katie Boulter and Jessica Pegula. I was interested in all three as fliers before the event. Don’t be surprised if any of the three end up getting to the semifinals.
Quarter 3: This is a dream draw for Sabalenka. The second-best player in the section is Qinwen Zheng, who is very unproven on grass. I’d be pretty surprised if Zheng doesn’t get tripped up somewhere along the way, but I’d easily take Sabalenka to get the better of her in the quarters. I also wouldn’t worry too much about Mirra Andreeva potentially being Sabalenka’s fourth-round opponent. While Andreeva got the better of Sabalenka at the French Open, it was clear that the Australian Open champion was dealing with an illness. Also, those slower conditions played into Andreeva’s favor a bit. I don’t think the teenager can handle Sabalenka’s power on a quick court. Honestly, I’m more nervous about Donna Vekic as a second-round opponent. But Sabalenka should pass that test.
Quarter 4: Gauff is the second-seeded player in this tournament and this is her quarter of the draw. I have been interested in potentially fading Gauff at this event, as I don’t think her serve is consistent enough and her forehand is still a mess. The latter is a bigger concern in quick conditions, as she won’t have time to set her feet and hit that shot. With that in mind, I worry about Gauff’s finishing power in an event that rewards players that can end points quickly. On top of that, Madison Keys is a player I have been looking to back on the futures market in London. Well, she has a pretty nice draw to make the quarterfinals, and I think she has what it takes to beat Gauff if the two end up playing.
Wimbledon Futures
Aryna Sabalenka To Win Wimbledon (+333 – 1.5 units): Before I saw the draw, I didn’t think I’d have Sabalenka to win this event. The Belarusian has had a weird couple of weeks, as she was sick and lost to Andreeva in the French Open quarterfinals and then retired in a match against Kalinskaya in Berlin. Ultimately, it would have been nice to see Sabalenka healthy and playing more matches. But she really has a tremendous draw here. She should have no trouble playing her way into form, and I just don’t see her running into much trouble until deep in the tournament. Also, while Sabalenka has never won Wimbledon before, her raw power should allow her to win several by the time her career is over. With that in mind, I’m putting a little something on Sabalenka at this number.
Madison Keys To Win Quarter 3 (+450) & Madison Keys To Wimbledon (22-1 – 0.5 units): If Sabalenka doesn’t reach the final, I think it’ll be Keys that does. The American suffered a bad loss to Leylah Fernandez in the semifinals in Eastbourne, but she’s still 17-7 on the season. That 70.8% winning percentage is the highest she has had since 2016. Keys is also a ridiculous 45-15 on grass, which easily makes this her most successful surface. I just like that Keys has the ability to hit with some of the game’s biggest power players, but she also moves rather well. On top of that, Keys is a dangerous server on this surface, and she’s a good returner everywhere. We saw at last year’s US Open that the American still has it in her to make deep runs at Grand Slams. Well, I think she has the potential to do it here. I’m backing her to win her quarter, and I’m also taking a shot on her to win the tournament.
Katerina Siniakova To Reach Wimbledon Final (100-1 – 0.25 units): This one is definitely a little out there, but Siniakova won six of the seven matches she played on grass before Wimbledon. The one loss was a tight three-set loss against Pegula, who won one of the two sets in a tiebreaker. Siniakova is also 10-3 on grass over the last 52 weeks, which shows how good she can be on this surface. And it isn’t surprising considering her aggressive approach, along with an ability to play at the net. Of course, Siniakova does have a potential third-round meeting with Swiatek. But I genuinely believe she can beat an out-of-form Swiatek on this surface. If she does, there’s no reason she can’t continue to turn some heads. If we get deep enough into the event, we’ll start thinking of ways to hedge this. I thought about taking Siniakova to just win Quarter 1. But I would like her chances against anybody in Quarter 2 in the semifinals, so I’m taking it a step further.
Wimbledon Prediction
As previously mentioned, I’m rocking with Sabalenka to win this tournament. This is definitely a wide-open major, but Sabalenka has the ability to make this happen. Her game is a perfect match for these conditions, and the draw couldn’t possibly be better. Sabalenka just needs to find a consistent level and keep herself healthy.
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