The Final Four isn’t until April 4 in Indianapolis, but we’re getting an early version today.
No. 4 Arizona (+4.5) will play at No. 2 Houston (3 ET, ABC) and No. 3 Duke (+2.5) will meet No. 1 Michigan in Washington DC (6:30 ET, ESPN).
Adam Burke breaks down both games, starting with the Big 12 matchup:
Normally I’m skeptical of Houston because of their shot selection. They take a lot of mid-range jumpers at the expense of being unable to play down low in the post and those are often higher-risk, lower-reward shots. However, with Koa Peat (leg injury) unavailable for Arizona, that levels the shot selection playing field a bit. Given that Arizona really doesn’t shoot a lot of 3s and Houston does, Arizona being forced into more jumpers puts them out of rhythm and that is to Houston’s favor.
As for Michigan-Duke, Adam tries to make sense of the line:
Doesn’t it seem like Michigan should be a bigger favorite here? They have a better distribution as a team when it comes to scoring, have played the harder schedule, reside in the tougher conference, and they are 10-0 in Quadrant 1 games, while Duke is 10-2.
Of course, the biggest difference between today and April 4? There won’t be just two games.
There are 149 Division I games on the board today.
To help you navigate the full slate, Steve Makinen has compiled a special College Basketball Analytics Report featuring his top betting systems and head-to-head trends.
Greg “Hoops” Peterson has an opinion on Arizona-Houston among the 17 games he likes today — which is impressive considering he handicapped every game on his Coast-to-Coast Hoops podcast.
Later this morning on our college basketball page: Adam will have more Best Bets and Josh Appelbaum will interpret the money movement.
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Quick Hits
NBA: Zach Cohen‘s Best Bets and Steve Makinen‘s Analytics Report will hit around mid-morning on our NBA page.
Olympic Hockey: Canada is a -114 favorite vs. Team USA (+102) in Sunday’s gold medal final at the unfortunate time of 8:10 a.m. ET.
UFC: Lou Finocchiaro has Best Bets for tonight’s UFC Houston (8 ET main card) and joins Dave Ross on the First Strike podcast. 👉 Watch / Listen
Soccer: Luke DiVasta, otherwise known as Mitch and Pauly’s producer on Follow The Money, offers his top futures wagers as the MLS opens its season today. Nigel Seeley has three plays for the EPL card this weekend.
Horse Racing: VSiN’s “Mr. Ed” Sehon and DRF’s Mike Welsch have picks for today’s races at Gulfstream.
ICYMI: The VSiN At The Track podcast with Mike Somich and Aaron Halterman on today’s top races. 👉 Watch / Listen
NASCAR: Steve Makinen has his preliminary picks for Sunday’s NASCAR race in Atlanta. Look here for his final race simulation late Saturday.
Tennis: If all this isn’t enough for you, Zach Cohen and Gill Alexander are posting their plays on the tennis picks page. Zach has a preview on the Pegula-Svitolina match today (10 a.m. ET).
