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It was a rough Week 11 for NFL dog lovers as favorites went 10-4 straight up and 9-5 ATS.
That means it was a rough week for Dave “Dog or Pass” Tuley.
But Dave is back off the leash for tonight’s Week 12 opener, Steelers-Browns (8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon):
When this Thursday nighter was scheduled, everyone probably thought it was between AFC North rivals trying to keep up with the Ravens and Bengals in the playoff chase. Instead, the Steelers (a surprising 8-2) have a 1.5-game lead over the Ravens after beating them 18-16 Sunday as 3-point home underdogs while the Browns (2-8) are in the cellar after getting run over 35-14 by the Saints.
But this is still the NFL (aka “No Form League”). Parity still exists and teams still step up and compete when least expected. And remember that these same Browns shocked the Ravens 29-24 just four weeks ago. As strange as it may sound, I would pass on the Browns as divisional home dawgs if Justin Fields was quarterbacking the Steelers because of how they had no answer vs. the Saints’ Taysom Hill, but with Russell Wilson mostly staying in the pocket, I believe it gives the Cleveland defense a better chance to keep this close and getting more than a field goal has me biting on this ugly dog.
VSiN.com senior editor Zach Cohen is buying into the Browns, too.
This Pittsburgh team is definitely better with Wilson under center, but the offense is still shaky and the defense isn’t quite as good as people think — especially in the secondary. So, in a tough divisional road game, I’m not sure the Steelers can be trusted to win by more than a field goal.
>>Game preview and Best Bets from Zach.
As you can see from the above graphic, Dave and Zach are in the distinct minority in backing the Browns on the spread. >>DK/Circa betting splits.
I took an early look at Steve Makinen’s Analytics Report and found these among the Coach/QB trends:
>Mike Tomlin is 30-16 SU, but 13-31 ATS vs. poor offensive teams scoring (under 19 PPG) since 2011.
>Russell Wilson is 11-2 Under the Total in his last 13 November starts.
>>Look for the Analytics Report with betting systems and trends later this morning on Steve’s page.
One other factor to keep an eye on: The forecast in Cleveland is for rain and snow. But Kevin Roth, our favorite betting weatherman, doesn’t think the wind will affect play.
Other TNF resources
>Matchup page: ATS records, advanced stats and prop analyzer.
>NFL picks page (for VSiN Pro subscribers).
QB update: 49ers QB Brock Purdy (right shoulder) didn’t throw at practice on Wednesday.
Everything we do on Week 12 is posted here.
More Thursday night football
VSiN.com managing editor Adam Burke previews tonight’s lone game, an ACC matchup of N.C. State (+9) vs. Georgia Tech (7:30 ET, ESPN):
Georgia Tech is off of the big, noteworthy upset [vs. Miami] and has a higher ceiling with QB Haynes King [returning from injury], but the Wolfpack is only slightly worse on defense in conference action and I don’t see a huge offensive drop-off.
Everything we post on Week 13 is here, including Makinen’s Analytics Report.
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Quick Hits
College Basketball: Greg Peterson has posted his Best Bets for today’s menu.
NBA: Zach Cohen will post his Best Bets later today on our NBA page.
NHL: Look for Jonathan Davis‘ picks by mid-morning on our NHL page.
Horse Racing: 1/ST BET handicapper Jeremy Plonk makes his picks for today’s Churchill Downs card. 1/ST Bet offers wagering on hundreds of races every day from across the country and around the world. Sign up at 1STBET.COM with promo code VSIN200 to claim a 20% rebate for your first 60 days, up to $200.
