A tremendous five-day lineup of college and pro football betting begins tonight.
Miami is a 3-point favorite at Circa (-3.5 at DraftKings) vs. Ole Miss (7:30 ET, ESPN).
Steve Makinen has run his numbers and . . .
QB Carson Beck has not been great in the playoffs, throwing for just 5.3 yards per attempt. Miami will not be able to be this conservative against Ole Miss, though I still think it will try. My Power Ratings show that the number should be Miami -2.0, while the real line is -3.5. My Effective Strength Ratings also show Miami -3.4, again not good enough. I think this game has a chance to go down to the wire, and I am very concerned about the Hurricanes flipping from dog twice in the playoffs to favorite. As it is, they are on a horrendous stretch of 2-7 SU and 1-8 ATS as a bowl/playoff game favorite since 2005. This is also an ACC-favored-over-SEC spot. We know how bad the ACC was overall this season. That’s a lot of pressure being put on Miami.
I ran Steve’s Analytics Report for the CFP semifinals through ChatGPT and it spit out this was the Best-est Bet for the semifinals sides and totals (with emojis!)
🎯 UNDER 52.5
✔ Multiple independent systems
✔ ACC favored-small trend
✔ Miami defense + bowl/playoff pace
✔ Correlated with close or grinder-style game
👉 Read the full Analytics Report.
I checked to see how the Circa Friday Football Invitational contestants played this game (if at all):
Scott Pritchard: Miami FL (-3) vs Ole Miss
Frank Carulli: Miami FL (-3) vs Ole Miss
Kenny White: Ole Miss (+3) vs Miami FL
Chris Fallica: Miami FL vs Ole Miss – UNDER (51.5)
FYI: Fallica, Fox Sports betting analyst and a proud graduate of the University of Miami, is in second place, 4.5 points behind San Diego pro bettor Chris Macero. 👉 Standings.
In the EdgeBoost Average Joe Contest, 71 percent of the contestants took Miami -3 in by far the most popular pick for the week. 👉 Leaderboard.
One last recommendation: Catch up on this week’s episodes of the VSiN College Football Betting Podcast with Tim Murray. Among the guests: Adam Burke, Matt Youmans, Wes Reynolds and Brett Ciancia (Pick Six Previews).
More CFP resources
ICYMI: Adam’s game preview and top pick.
VSiN Pro subscribers have access to the CFB Picks page.
Everything we do on the CFP is here.
NFL playoff trends for friends
The aforementioned Steve Makinen has posted his NFL playoff trends and insights.
Here’s one just to give you a taste:
Home underdogs in NFL playoff games are currently on a 9-4 SU and 11-2 ATS run heading into the 2026 postseason. This trend dates back to 2016 and includes a 3-0 mark last season. Eight of the last nine of these such games have been in the wild card round, and those home dogs are 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS. For 2026, we may have four of them on tap for wild card weekend.
Everything we do on the wild-card round will be posted here.
Quick Hits
NBA: Zach Cohen‘s Best Bets and Steve Makinen‘s Analytics Report will hit around mid-morning on our NBA page. Our Opta AI NBA player props projections are here.
College Basketball: Greg “Hoops” Peterson has his Best Bet for today’s menu. Look for picks from Adam Burke mid-morning on our college hoops page.
Get real-time steam alerts from the DonBest Screen. Sign up now for a 7-day free trial at go.donbest.com. Use the promo code VSIN10 for 10% off your initial subscription.
NHL: VSiN hockey analyst Jonathan Davis will post his Best Bets around mid-day.
