SMU didn’t make it easy on the College Football Playoff selection committee.
In the ACC title game, the Mustangs rallied to tie Clemson with 16 seconds left, but gave up a long kickoff return that put Clemson in position to win 34-31 on a 56-yard walkoff field goal.
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So Clemson is in. And SMU must await its fate, which will be known later today when the committee announces the playoff bracket.
If the betting market is a harbinger of things to come, DraftKings Sportsbook had SMU at -360 to make the playoffs and Alabama at +260 at 1 a.m. ET. Right after the game, SMU was at -1000, Alabama at +600, so there are definitely bettors out there who think Alabama has a chance. >>Check odds.
Here’s how ESPN’s Heather Dinich, whose entire job is covering committee meetings, has it:
Top seeds with first-round byes: 1 Oregon (Big Ten champ), 2 Georgia (SEC), 3 Boise State (Mountain West), 4 Arizona State (Big 12).
First-round matchups: No. 12 Clemson at No. 5 Penn State; No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Texas; No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Notre Dame; No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Ohio State.
Quarterfinals: Clemson-Penn State winner vs. Arizona State; SMU/Texas winner vs. Boise State; IndianaNotre Dame winner vs. Georgia; Tennessee/Ohio State winner vs. Oregon
One storyline to follow: Georgia QB Carson Beck was injured in a 22-19 OT victory over Texas. He hurt his right arm on the last play of the first half and returned only to hand off on the winning TD.
Bonus programming: VSiN will do a deeper dive on the CFP bracket and early lines. Join Jonathan Von Tobel and Adam Burke at 2:30 p.m. ET on VSiN’s YouTube channel or on our VSiN X account for The CFP Betting Preview Show.
NFC West in spotlight
Three games are drawing my attention today for different reasons.
In the matchup with the biggest playoff implications, the NFC West lead is on the line for the Seahawks and Cardinals (4:05 ET).
VSiN.com senior editor Zach Cohen has a Best Bet on this one:
I liked the Cardinals to beat the Seahawks in Seattle on Nov. 24, but Arizona got nothing going offensively there. Kyler Murray needs to get back on track, and there are reasons to believe it’ll happen here. This season, Murray has a Passer Rating of 104.1 at home. He’s also completing 70.1% of his passes and has a 7-2 TD-INT ratio in Glendale. On the road, he has a Passer Rating of 88.2 and a 6-4 TD-INT ratio.
Seattle’s offense has also been a nightmare lately. The Seahawks are 28th in the NFL in EPA per play (-0.080) over the last five games. Arizona desperately needs this game in order to stay alive in the race to win the NFC West. That sense of urgency should show up here.
VSiN contributor Tyler Shoemaker has a wager on the Seattle-Arizona Total for your consideration.
FYI: Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker III (ankle) has been ruled out.
Then there are my hometown Bears (+3) playing at San Francisco (4:25 p.m. ET) in their first game in the post-Matt Eberflus era. The injury-plagued 49ers announced Saturday that Nick Bosa (hip) and Trent Williams (ankle) are out.
Tyler has an opinion on this one.
The 49ers have dealt with a variety of injuries this year, but what a disappointing season for them so far. They were pretty much universally-considered a top 3-4 team coming into this year, and they’re now down to 24th in TSI power ratings. They’re taking on a Bears team that seemed like it might be on “quit watch” until they played the Lions down to the wire on Thanksgiving in a game that cost coach Matt Eberflus his job for his poor clock management. I don’t see any way the Bears’ operation could be worse without him, so I’m not making any rating adjustments just yet. In fact, I think his firing might be the shot in the arm the Bears needed. I only project San Francisco -1.5 here, so this seems like too much value to pass up, especially given the trajectories these teams might be on.
VSiN’s Steve Makinen offers an opposing view.
Finally, there is the Panthers-Eagles game (1 p.m. ET), which attracted what has been said to be the largest wager on a regular-season NFL contest. A Circa Sports customer from Kentucky risked $3.1 million to win $440K on the Eagles moneyline. I’ll be in my usual spot at Circa today in the vicinity of owner Derek Stevens as he roots for the upset.
VSiN PrimeTime host Matt Youmans is not ready to say that the Panthers are going to win, but he likes them to at least cover the +13.5.
Benched and dismissed by most as a bust, Carolina quarterback Bryce Young has shown surprisingly positive signs while winning two of his past four starts, which included three-point losses to the Buccaneers and Chiefs. Young passed for 298 yards and one touchdown while taking only one sack in last week’s loss to Tampa Bay. Philadelphia has won eight straight and could fall asleep at the wheel this week while looking ahead to bigger games against the Steelers and Commanders. The Eagles are 0-5 ATS in their past five as double-digit favorites.
More Best Bet columns from Mike Somich, Adam Burke and Dave Tuley.
Everything we do on Week 14 is posted here.
More Week 14 resources
>Look for Josh Appelbaum‘s Sharp Report later this morning.
>DraftKings/Circa Betting Splits: Compare the betting splits from DraftKings and Circa Sports. Keep an eye on them this morning for late action.
>Weather: Kevin Roth of Rotogrinders doesn’t expect anything out of the ordinary.
For the latest line moves and injury updates, tune into VSiN’s Pro Football Tailgate Show (10 a.m.-1 p.m. ET) with Stormy Buonantony and Rich Gannon. Guests include Michael Lombardi, John Hansen and Brent Musburger.
Contest Corner
In Circa Survivor, here is how the 52 entries made their Week 14 picks: Steelers (20), Eagles (11), Bucs (7), Vikings (4), Dolphins (4), Bengals (3), Saints (2), Titans (1).
The top Circa Million picks for Week 14: Dolphins -5.5 (2,285), Bills -3.5 (1,753), Bears +4 (1,688), Chargers +4 (1,482), Browns +7 (1,443).
>Go to our Circa contest resources page for the full consensus lists and individual picks, plus the updated standings and picks for the Circa Friday Football Invitational and our Average Joe Contest.
Today in college basketball
Greg Peterson has posted his Best Bets for today’s menu.
>Adam Burke’s top plays will be up later today.
Quick Hits
NBA: Zach Cohen will post his Best Bets later today on our NBA page.
NHL: Look for Jonathan Davis‘ picks by mid-morning on our NHL page.
Horse Racing: “Mr. Ed” Sehon has posted his picks for today’s Gulfstream card.
This is The VSiN Daily newsletter for Sunday, December 8. Sign up for this free email and get picks and insights delivered to your in-box every morning.
