The college basketball season opens today at 8 a.m. ET with Queens (+3.5) vs. Winthrop in the Field of 68 Opening Day Marathon in Rock Hill, S.C. Scroll down for more of VSiN’s coverage.
America’s bettors love America’s Team.
The Cowboys have attracted more than 80 percent of the bets and handle at DraftKings (-3.5) AND Circa Sports (-3) for tonight’s game vs. the visiting Cardinals (8:15 ET, ABC/ESPN) in the NFL Week 9 finale.
Maybe this is an understandable reaction, given that the Cardinals will be without starting QB Kyler Murray (foot).
Maybe not.
Based on Steve Makinen’s analysis of DK betting splits, the majority in a high-profile, prime-time game is more often wrong than right.
Zach Cohen previews the game:
The Cardinals aren’t in bad shape with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback. He’s one of the better backups in the league, and he’s averaging just about 300 passing yards per game with a total of four touchdowns and only one pick over the last two contests. There’s just no reason he can’t turn in another good performance against a Cowboys team that is last in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (0.178) thanks to a league-worst passing defense (0.256 Dropback EPA per play allowed).
Arizona is also a much better defensive team than Dallas. That might not be saying much, but the Cardinals are 20th in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (0.037), and the extra time to rest and prepare (off a bye week) will only make the gap between the two units larger.
Steve has a few MNF trends you know know in his Best Bets column.
Josh Appelbaum will post his MNF Sharp Report later this morning.
MNF resources
>Opta AI player prop projections for MNF
>Fantasy Points WR/CB Matchup Tool
NFL review/preview
Last Sunday, we had 11 games with 10 of them decided by double digits and favorites went 9-2 SU and ATS.
Yesterday, we had 12 games with nine decided by one score. Favorites led 7-5 SU, but underdogs went 8-4 ATS. Over/Unders split 6-6.
>>Season ATS stats from Dave Tuley.
The biggest Week 9 injury: Commanders QB Jayden Daniels suffered a gruesome left elbow injury (dislocation) in mop-up time of a 38-14 loss to the Seahawks on Sunday night.
Moving on to Week 10, Adam Burke has his analysis of the early lines based on results and injuries here.
Patrick Meagher and Mike Somich do an NFL review/preview on the Sharp Money podcast.
Packers team of death for 264
>Circa Survivor: There are 1,777 live entries with eight pending on the Cowboys tonight. Sunday’s eliminations: 264 on Green Bay, 15 on Detroit and 1 on Houston.
>Circa Grandissimo: Two entries were eliminated with the Packers’ loss, leaving 11 live entries in $100,000 entry-fee survivor contest.
>Circa Million: Top 5 most-selected teams went 1-3 with Dallas -2.5 pending; lone win by SF -2.5; losses by DET -8.5, IND -3 and LAC -8.5. Per Tuley, top 5 is 16-28 on the season.
>Circa Friday Football Invitational: Fox Sports betting analyst Chris Fallica went 4-3 to retain a 2.5-point lead over Connecticut pro bettor Jason Jarvis (who has Arizona +2 on MNF). >>Standings.
>EdgeBoost Average Joe Contest: Just one contestant is in the clubhouse with a perfect record with three pending on MNF. >>Leaderboard.
Check out our contest hub for complete consensus picks and individual selections.
College basketball is back
Greg “Hoops” Peterson has 15 Best Bets for today’s opening-day menu.
I asked Greg if he had any general advice for college hoops bettors:
If you are new to college basketball, don’t feel like you need to study up on all 365 Division I teams. It takes many years to be able to have even a survivor’s level of knowledge on most teams, stick with a few conferences if you are just starting out and slowly branch out.
Also do not feel the need to completely pack your futures portfolio before the season tips off. While everyone wants a full season sweat with futures, most times you can find better numbers within the season even on the top teams. Many people forget Houston lost three games in the month of November last season before making its run to the title game. Don’t force a futures bet, be patient and wait to see these teams play a few games.
One way to find a conference or two to focus on: The 194-page VSiN College Basketball Betting Guide is available for download.
Greg also posts daily handicapped lines and handicaps every game every day during the season on the Coast-to-Coast Hoops podcast.
Adam Burke will offer his college basketball Best Bets Monday-Saturday. You can find them on our college basketball page mid-morning.
Other college hoops resources:
>Steve Makinen’s daily power ratings.
>DraftKings/Circa Betting Splits.
>College Basketball Picks Page.
Get the DonBest Pro and College Football Rotation Guide covering the first chunk of games. (We’ll update the guide weekly as DonBest produces more rotation numbers.)
Quick Hits
UFC: Isaac Dulgarian has been released from the UFC following his first-round submission loss to Yadier del Valle at Saturday’s UFC Fight Night in Las Vegas, sources told Uncrowned’s Ariel Helwani. Odds on Dulgarian dropped from -250 to -154 just before the bout. Caesars Sportsbook even issued cash credits to bettors who had Dulgarian. More to come on this one, no doubt.
College Football: Adam Burke adjusts his power ratings based on Week 10 results and highlights some of the early line moves for Week 11.
NBA: Look for Best Bets from Zach Cohen and Steve Makinen‘s Analytics Report around mid-morning on our NBA page. Our new Opta AI NBA player props projections are here.
NHL: VSiN hockey analyst Jonathan Davis will post his Best Bets around mid-day.
Soccer: VSiN soccer analyst Nigel Seeley has one more pick for today’s EPL menu.
