The cowboy hats arrived this weekend in Las Vegas.
The big rodeo is still a few weeks away, so that can only mean one thing: America’s team is in town to play the Raiders (8:15 ET, ABC/ESPN).
Zach Cohen previews tonight’s game with Dallas as a favorite of -3.5 (DraftKings) or -3 (Circa).
The Cowboys are currently 31st in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (0.172). The team did make some trade deadline moves, acquiring Logan Wilson and Quinnen Williams. However, it’s hard to imagine two moves doing too much for this group. Dallas is 29th in the league in Rush EPA per play allowed (0.049) and 30th in Dropback EPA per play (0.252). No matter how teams want to attack the Cowboys, they’re able to do it rather easily. Williams’ presence should mean some more pressure on the opposing quarterback, taking a little stress off the secondary. However, it’s hard to imagine all of the Cowboys’ problems going away immediately. This should still be one of the bottom-10 defenses in football, and the Raiders should have plenty of success moving the ball down the field in this one.
👉 Zach’s Best Bet and prop pick.
Steve Makinen has a few trends for your consideration:
Since the start of the 2023 season, when the majority number of DraftKings bets have backed road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups are 100-87 ATS (53.5%). We also have a notable AFC-NFC trend that has emerged in MNF games, where home teams are just 19-39-2 ATS (32.8%) over the last 60 games.
In his Betting Splits analysis, Steve also has two systems that point to playing the Under (50 at Circa).
👉 Rushing prop from Adam Burke.
👉 Kicking prop from Pauly Howard.
Dave “Dog or Pass” Tuley says he is going to the game, but taking a pass.
For the final word, I turned to Brent Musburger, The Godfather of VSiN and former voice of the Raiders:
The Raiders need to wake up and throw the football to Brock Bowers! Monday night vs. Cowboys is last bright lights game for the Raiders. Another horrible performance and Pete Carroll is likely headed to old folks home!
MNF resources
Josh Appelbaum will post his MNF Sharp Report later this morning.
>Opta AI player prop projections for MNF
>Fantasy Points WR/CB Matchup Tool
VSiN Pro subscribers have access to the plays from hosts and guests on our NFL picks page.
NFL Week 11 in review
Week 11 favorites went 9-4 straight up, but underdogs were 8-5 ATS Sunday. Unders went 8-5. 👉 Season ATS stats from Dave Tuley.
The biggest Week 11 injury: Aaron Rodgers suffered a slight break in his left wrist during the Steelers’ 34-12 victory over the Bengals. He will be reevaluated today. Other QB injuries: Michael Penix Jr. (knee) and Dillion Gabriel (concussion).
Moving on to Week 12, Adam Burke has his analysis of the early lines based on results and injuries. For example, on the Steelers-Bears game:
This was -1.5 in favor of Chicago, but the injury to Rodgers pushed this line out to -3, as the Bears maybe got a tad more respect off the road win as well.
Patrick Meagher and Mike Somich do an NFL review/preview on the Sharp Money podcast.
Survivor down to 939
>Circa Survivor: We’re down from 1,000 to 939 live entries. The Falcons’ 30-27 OT loss to the Panthers did most of the damage (43). There are 25 pending on the Cowboys.
>Circa Grandissimo: All six entries made it through the week with 2 on the Steelers on Sunday after four advanced on the Patriots’ TNF win.
>Circa Million: Top 5 most-selected teams went 2-3 with Vikings -2.5 (L), Chiefs -3.5 (L), 49ers -3 (W), Dolphins -2.5 (W) & Lions +2.5 (L). Top 5 most-selected teams are 22-33 this season.
Check out our contest hub for complete consensus picks and individual selections.
>Circa Friday Football Invitational: Connecticut pro bettor Jason Jarvis leads by 1.5 points with the Cowboys -3 pending. >>Standings.
>EdgeBoost Average Joe Contest: There were just three contestants with perfect records for the week and another six undefeated heading into MNF. >>Leaderboard.
Today in college basketball
Greg “Hoops” Peterson has his picks for today’s college basketball menu.
Greg also posts daily handicapped lines and handicaps every game every day during the season on the Coast-to-Coast Hoops podcast.
Get real-time steam alerts from the DonBest Screen. Sign up now for a 7-day free trial at go.donbest.com. Use the promo code VSIN10 for 10% off your initial subscription.
Quick Hits
College Football: Adam Burke adjusts his power ratings based on Week 12 results and highlights some of the early line moves for Week 13.
NBA: Zach Cohen‘s Best Bets column and Steve Makinen‘s Analytics Report will hit around mid-morning on our NBA page. Our Opta AI NBA player props projections are here.
NHL: VSiN hockey analyst Jonathan Davis will post his Best Bets around mid-day.
