Bracket racket
The College Football Playoff bracket is set — minus Notre Dame. The NFL playoff bracket is starting to shape up — probably minus the Chiefs, Ravens and Colts (with Daniel Jones out for the season).
But let’s start with the NFL Week 14 finale: Eagles (-1.5) at Chargers (8:15 ET, ABC/ESPN).
Zach Cohen makes the case for Chargers:
This is a game in which the VSiN betting splits tell a real story. Nearly 75% of the tickets and handle have been on Philadelphia here, but Los Angeles has gone from +2.5 to +1.5. That’s some noteworthy reverse line movement, meaning sharp bettors appear to like the Chargers. However, that’s not the only reason to like LA. The product we’ve seen on the field from both squads in recent weeks really favors the Chargers.
Steve Makinen makes the case for the Under (42 at Circa):
We have two teams that definitely trend under in this spot, and adding to that, historically, MNF home dogs have been big Under plays as well: The last 34 NFL MNF home dogs have seen Under the total go 23-9-2 (71.9%), games producing just 40 PPG. The game is priced at a point where bettors are flocking to the Over at a 78% number of bets rate. Not good. I expect this game to be a grinder.
Josh Appelbaum will post his MNF Sharp Report this morning.
MNF resources
>Opta AI player prop projections for MNF
>Fantasy Points WR/CB Matchup Tool
VSiN Pro subscribers have access to the plays from hosts and guests on our NFL picks page.
NFL Week 14 review: Jones’ injury dooms Colts
Daniel Jones is out for the season after suffering a torn Achilles in the Colts’ 36-19 loss to the Jaguars. With rookie Riley Leonard, the Colts are 10.5-point underdogs vs. the Seahawks in Week 15 (from the pre-injury lookahead line of +3.5).
Dave Tuley’s ATS Report: Favorites led 6-5 SU Sunday with 1 pick-em (WAS-MIN), but dogs led 7-4 ATS. Overs dominated 10-2. >>Season stats.
One underdog cover worth noting: A dubious Denver delay-of-game penalty stopped the clock with seconds left, enabling the Raiders to kick a field goal that made the final 24-17 Denver. The Raiders were 8.5-point underdogs and the Total was 41. Ouch!
Updated playoff probability: Colts (42%), Ravens (32%) and Chiefs (15%). With four weeks left, there aren’t that many “Bubble” teams.
Moving on to Week 15, Adam Burke has his analysis of the early lines based on results and injuries.
Patrick Meagher and Mike Somich do an NFL review/preview on the Sharp Money podcast.
Circa Survivor down to 11
>Circa Survivor: There are just 11 live entries chasing the $18.7 million winner-take-all prize with one pending on the Eagles on MNF. The Bucs’ 24-20 loss to the Saints (+7.5) eliminated 28 entries. Losses by the Browns (5) and Ravens (1) accounted for the rest.
>Circa Million: Top 5 Most-Selected Teams went 2-3 with wins by Jaguars +1.5 and Packers -6.5, but losses on Chiefs -3, Commanders +2.5 and Bears +6.5. Per Tuley, the Top 5 consensus is 27-41-2 (39.7%) for the season.
Check out our contest hub for complete consensus picks and individual selections.
>Circa Friday Football Invitational: San Diego pro bettor Chris Macero went 5-1 (with Chargers +2.5 pending) to take a half-point lead over Connecticut pro bettor Jason Jarvis. >>Standings.
>EdgeBoost Average Joe Contest: There are 12 undefeated contestants with 10 more pending on MNF. >>Leaderboard.
CFP opening lines
The VSiN College Football Playoff Betting Guide will be published on Thursday, but here are the matchups for the first weekend:
Friday, Dec. 19
9 Alabama (-1.5) at 8 Oklahoma, 8 ET
Saturday, Dec. 20
10 Miami (+4) at 7 Texas A&M, Noon ET
11 Tulane (+16) at 6 Ole Miss, 3:30 ET
12 James Madison (+20.5) at 5 Oregon, 7:30 ET
Adam Burke sizes up the opening lines for the CFP.
The top 4 seeds — Indiana, Ohio State, Georgia and Texas Tech — will await the winners.
The odd team out, Notre Dame, announced that it won’t play in a bowl game. Adam updated his power ratings and the Irish came in at No. 4.
Quick Hits
NBA: Zach Cohen‘s Best Bets column and Steve Makinen‘s Analytics Report will hit around mid-morning on our NBA page.
Our Opta AI NBA player props projections are here.
New on VSiN.com: Follow the live in-game odds from FanDuel.
College Basketball: Greg Peterson has Best Bets for today’s menu.
Get real-time steam alerts from the DonBest Screen. Sign up now for a 7-day free trial at go.donbest.com. Use the promo code VSIN10 for 10% off your initial subscription.
NHL: VSiN hockey analyst Jonathan Davis will post his Best Bets around mid-day.
