I was hanging out at Circa with VSiN’s Matt Youmans on Saturday night and asked him what he thought the line would be for Monday’s Florida-Houston title matchup:
I’m still stunned — and I don’t get stunned easily. I just can’t believe Duke lost that game.
Indeed, Duke had a 14-point lead with 8:17 left and was up 9 with 3 minutes remaining, but Houston (+4.5) rallied to win 70-67. That set up the final with Florida, which defeated Auburn 79-73 and covered the closing -2. Both games went Under their closing totals.
Matt had some nice-sized futures bets on the Blue Devils, so I admire that “stunned” was the only emotion he showed after the Blue Devils’ collapse.
Soon enough, the Circa oddsboard answered my question: Florida -1.
VSiN.com managing editor Adam Burke offers his early analysis:
The battle on the offensive glass will be a major key to this one. Eighteen offensive rebounds, including a massive one from Joseph Tugler in the final minute, played a huge role in Houston’s comeback win. Florida only had 12 against Auburn, but the Gators have been around the top five in ORB% all season long. Houston has been right around the top 10 for the majority of the season as well.
Plenty more to come on this one on air and on VSiN.com in the next 36 hours or so. We definitely will want to hear from Mitch Moss, who has a $15,000 futures bet on Florida at +725 (= $108,750), courtesy of the free roll he earned in the Derek Stevens/Mike Palm Bracket Buster.
Greg Peterson has his Best Bets for today’s College Basketball Crown final with Nebraska (-3.5) vs. Central Florida in Las Vegas (5:30 p.m. ET).
Tyler Shoemaker uses his T-Shoe Index to generate his prediction for the South Carolina vs. UConn women’s championship (3 p.m. ET).
Contest Corner
Circa College Hoops Challenge: Texas pro handicapper Paul Stone clinched first place with his Best Bet of Houston +5 to put an insurmountable 3-point margin between himself and VSiN’s Tim Murray. >>Standings.
VSiN March Bracket Challenge: With one pick left, we have a two-way tie at the top. >>Standings.
See how VSiN staffers played today’s games for the contest. Congrats to Matt Brown, who clinched at least a share of first place. Only Jensen Lewis can tie him with one pick left.
1/ST BET Hoops & Horses Pick’em Challenge: We’ll grade picks and announce the top 50 in Tuesday’s newsletter. FYI: Journalism (6-5) won the Santa Anita Derby and Rodriguez (5-2) won the Wood Memorial.
Today in MLB
Greg Peterson has filed his top plays for today. >Check his handicapped lines.
Steve Makinen will file his MLB Analytics report by mid-morning and you can find it on the MLB page.
Other MLB resources
>Our daily matchup page with more detail by clicking on “Matchup Analysis.”
>Makinen’s daily power ratings
>DraftKings/Circa Betting Splits
Makinen’s NASCAR predictions
Steve Makinen‘s race simulations are getting dialed in with six of the top 7 projected drivers finishing in the top 7 last week at Martinsville. He has posted his final simulation for today’s NASCAR stop at Darlington:
Darlington as a handicap-ability grade of C+. It is typically known as one of the hardest tracks for newcomers to take on, earning the nickname “Too Tough to Tame.” Certain drivers however, have enjoyed great success here.
William Byron is the front runner and has become a pretty heavy favorite after grabbing the pole. He has the #3 track rating at Darlington on my scale. Tyler Reddick is #2 in that regard and #2 on the final simulation. Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson will also be top contenders, as will Ryan Blaney.
Here are my predictions:
Top 5: Byron, Larson, Blaney, Hamlin, Keselowski
Top underdogs to consider: Beuscher, Briscoe, Wallace, Keselowski, Preece, Gibbs, Berry, Hocevar
Favorites to struggle: Bowman, Chastain, Logano
Quick Hits
NHL: Alexander Ovechkin can become the NHL’s all-time goal scorer, surpassing Wayne Gretzky’s mark of 894, with a goal today. The Capitals face the Islanders in NY (12:30 p.m. ET). Jonathan Davis will post his Best Bets for the game later this morning.
NBA: Zach Cohen will have his plays later this morning.
Soccer: Nigel Seeley has two remaining plays for the weekend EPL menu.
This is The VSiN Daily newsletter for Sunday, April 6. Sign up for this free email and get picks and insights delivered to your in-box every morning.
