The NFL scheduling gods present us with two games tonight: Bills at Falcons (7:15 ET, ESPN) and Bears at Commanders (8:15, ABC).
VSiN.com senior editor Zach Cohen previews both Monday Night Football games . . .
On the Bills-Falcons: The Bills are coming off a home loss to the Patriots. That has the general public viewing this as a bounce-back spot, with our VSiN betting splits page showing 81% of the tickets on Buffalo at DraftKings Sportsbook. However, this spread opened with Buffalo laying 5.5 on September 30, and it’s down to 4.5 at most shops now. There’s some sharp action on Atlanta, and that’s the side I’m taking here.
>>Best Bets and a prop from Zach.
On Bears-Commanders: I put in a play on Chicago at +4.5 and +190 earlier in the week, so I got caught with bad numbers. However, the Bears are still the side for me, so I’d suggest taking the 5 or 5.5 — along with some +220. Ben Johnson has had an extra week to prepare for a Commanders defense that isn’t all that great, so this should be a pretty big game for the Chicago offense. And I don’t see Washington keeping up with Jayden Daniels not at 100% health.
Our guys had more opinions on the MNF action than I normally find:
>Matt Youman’s Best Bets on both games.
>Wes Reynolds with a take on Bills-Falcons.
>Steve Makinen is betting the Total on the first game and has a bit of contrarian opinion on the Bears-Commanders:
Am I missing something here? The line for this second MNF game feels like oddsmakers are trying to sell the thought that Chicago and Washington are two relatively closely matched teams. I don’t buy it.
>Dave “Dog or Pass” Tuley shows he does have the self-control to pass on a dog.
>Josh Appelbaum will post his MNF Sharp Report later this morning.
As a long-time Bears aficionado, I would point out that they are coming into this game off a bye and with their healthiest roster, especially on defense, than at any point this season. The Commanders will be missing Terry McLaurin and Noah Brown, two of their best receivers.
Prop advice and tools
>Opta AI projections for Bills-Falcons
>Opta AI projections for Bears-Commanders
>Fantasy Points WR/CB Matchup Tool
Zach uses the three tools to come up with some prop bets for your consideration.
MNF resources
>DraftKings/Circa Betting Splits. Plus Steve’s Betting Splits Systems for MNF.
VSiN Pro subscribers have access to the plays from hosts and guests on our NFL picks page.
NFL favorites return to favor
NFL favorites made a comeback this week, going 11-1 straight up Sunday but only 7-5 ATS with four non-covering faves (DEN, IND, LAC & GB), as Dave Tuley points out. Unders were 7-5. >>Season stats.
The biggest Week 6 injury: 49ers LB Fred Warner suffered a dislocated right ankle and is out for the season, adding to the team’s injury woes. The 49ers dropped to 4-2 with a 30-19 loss to the Bucs (5-1).
The strangest Week 6 injury: Not that this will move a line, but Colts backup QB Anthony Richardson injured his eye in pre-game warmups and was hospitalized. That made it two Colts injuries before the game.
Adam Burke takes a look at the early line moves for Week 7.
No carnage on Survivor
>Circa Survivor: A quiet Sunday for Survivor as the top 6 selections all won. There 4,497 live entries with 70 pending on the Commanders, 9 on the Bills and 1 on the Bears.
>Circa Grandissimo: All 15 entries made it through to Week 7.
>Circa Million: Top 5 Most-Selected Teams went 2-3 and are now 9-21 (30%) for the season, according to Tuley; wins by Seahawks pick-em & Steelers -5.5; losses by Cowboys -3, Colts -7 & Lions +2.
>Circa Friday Football Invitational: Las Vegas pro bettor Frank Carulli went 4-3 and leads Fox Sports betting analyst Chris Fallica by a half point. >>Standings.
>EdgeBoost Average Joe Contest: Four contestants are already in the clubhouse with perfect records and 10 more are pending with MNF. >>Leaderboard.
Check out our contest hub for complete consensus picks and individual selections.
MLB Playoffs: Two games today
The Mariners (+145) defeated the Blue Jays 3-1 in Game 1 of the ALCS with Game 2 tonight (5:03 ET) again in Toronto.
Adam Burke previews the NLCS series, which begins tonight (8:08 ET) in Milwaukee. He points out that the Brewers went 6-0 vs. the Dodgers in the regular season, holding them to just 16 runs.
But . . .
When these two teams played in the regular season, Milwaukee chased Yoshinobu Yamamoto out of his start in the first innings. They also faced Clayton Kershaw twice and Tyler Glasnow twice. Emmet Sheehan had the other start. So, they did not face Blake Snell or Shohei Ohtani, who they will face in this series. And they’ll see Yamamoto again.
>Dave Tuley‘s betting strategy for the NLCS. (He is off to a good start in the ALCS.)
Greg Peterson has his Best Bets for today.
Adam will file his plays and Steve Makinen will have his Analytics Report later this morning.
MLB resources
Quick Hits
College Football: I’m glad to see my alma mater (Northwestern) has returned to its status of such low expectations that a loss to the Wildcats gets a coach fired.
Adam Burke adjusted his power ratings for Week 7 results — and Penn State loses 5.5 points to drop to 23rd.
I feel vindicated and validated that Drew Allar isn’t very good and that James Franklin has now been fired. Allar is out for the season, so 5.5 might not even be enough, but this is a program in shambles now.
Adam also looks at some of the early line moves for Week 8. FYI: Penn State is a 3-point underdog at Iowa this week.
NHL: VSiN hockey analyst Jonathan Davis will post his Best Bets around mid-day, but there are five starts before 2 p.m. ET so he shared these piays:
Colorado Team Total Over 3.5 (at Buffalo)
Shane Pinto (Ottawa Senators) anytime goal +280 vs Nashville
NY Islanders Money Line +100 (vs Winnipeg)
Easton Cowan (Toronto) anytime goal +340 (vs Detroit)
NBA: The VSiN NBA Betting Guide is ready for download.
