Las Vegas has been a sea of jersey-wearing Bears fans all weekend. They were rewarded with a 25-24 victory when the Bears (+1.5) blocked the Raiders’ potential game-winning field goal in the final seconds (yes, another one). Sunday started early in Dublin with the Steelers’ upset of the Vikings (-2.5) and ended with a 40-40 Packers-Cowboys tie (and Dallas covering +6.5). Favorites went 7-5-1 SU but dogs led 7-6 ATS; Overs led 9-4. >>Season stats from Dave Tuley.
Monday Night mashup
Can you call this a Monday Night Football doubleheader when the games overlap?
I didn’t think so.
VSiN.com senior editor Zach Cohen previews the Jets (+2.5) at Dolphins (7:15 ET, ESPN):
Not only do I believe the Dolphins are a better team, but they have a major rest advantage here. I also thought Miami showed some fight in last week’s loss to Buffalo, so I’m not sure this team is looking to give up on coach Mike McDaniel.
VSiN analytics guru Steve Makinen begs to differ:
At this point, it’s questionable to consider why Miami would be favored over anyone else. In fact, my Effective Strength Ratings show the Dolphins as the #30 of 32 teams. Their opponent for this week, the Jets, aren’t much better at #26, but still better.
Zach also previews the Bengals (+7.5) at Broncos (8:15 ET, ABC):
I’m not sure I’d be running to lay 7.5 to 8.5 points with Denver. Instead, I’d simply jump on the Over (44.5) in this one.
Steve cites this “hangover effect” betting system based on the Bengals’ five-turnover, 48-10 loss at Minnesota.
NFL teams coming off a game with a -5 turnover differential or worse and then having to play away from home have gone just 4-17 SU and 3-18 ATS (14.3%) in their last 21 tries.
Josh Appelbaum will post his MNF Sharp Report later this morning.
MNF resources
>Opta AI prop projections for Jets-Dolphins.
>Opta AI prop projections for Bengals-Broncos
>DraftKings/Circa Betting Splits
VSiN Pro subscribers should check our NFL picks page to see what hosts and guests did with MNF games.
Moving on to Week 5, VSiN.com managing editor Adam Burke looks at the line moves based on results and injuries. Lamar Jackson hurt his hamstring in a 37-20 loss to KC, so the Ravens-Texans matchup was off the board.
Contest Corner: Circa Survivor results
- Circa Survivor: We’re down to 12,406 live entries with the Chargers (784) and Packers (478) taking out the biggest chunks of the field on Sunday. Still pending: 1,830 on the Broncos, 54 on the Dolphins, 1 on the Jets and 1 on the Bengals.
- Circa Grandissimo: There are 55 live entries (2 eliminated on Chargers and 1 on Packers) with six pending on the Broncos.
- Circa Million: The top 5 consensus picks went 3-2.
- Circa Friday Football Invitational: Las Vegas pro bettor Frank Carulli went 5-2 to take a two-point lead. >>Standings.
- EdgeBoost Average Joe Contest: There are five undefeated contestants in the clubhouse with 10 more at 6-0. >>Leaderboard.
Check out our contest hub for complete Circa consensus picks and individual selections.
MLB playoff preview
The pairings for the wild-card are set with the first games on Tuesday.
- No. 6 Tigers (-110) vs. No. 3 Guardians (-110)
- No. 5 Red Sox (+135) vs. No. 4 Yankees (-165)
- No. 6 Reds (+205) vs. No. 3 Dodgers (-245)
- No. 5 Padres (+105) vs. No. 4 Cubs (-125)
Adam Burke is starting to post his series betting previews on our MLB page.
Greg Peterson has already handicapped Tuesday’s Game 1s.
College Football Week 6
After an amazing weekend of college football, Adam Burke updates his power ratings, but . . .
All of these results and some of the inherent randomness made Week 6 college football power ratings a challenge.
Adam perseveres and makes his own lines for this week’s menu with games you might consider wagering on.
He also looks at the early lines, including Texas (-7) at Florida.
Quick Hits
Ryder Cup: The U.S. rmade a valiant Sunday rally, but Europe managed to hold on to the Ryder Cup, 15-13. Europe was a pre-flop +125 underdog to lift the trophy.
NHL: VSiN hockey analyst Jonathan Davis has posted 32 team previews on our NHL page.
