🏀 NBA Playoffs: Home court — and a twist
Home teams went 4-0 SU on Day 1 — including an outright win by a home underdog.
Everyone knew the Lakers would be without Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves, but Houston’s game-day announcement that Kevin Durant was out (knee) moved the line from Rockets -5.5 to -2.5.
The Lakers — closing as a rare home underdog — took full advantage, rolling to a 107–98 win.
Why it matters: That result may have flipped the entire series.
Zach Cohen’s takeaway:
If Durant does miss Game 2 — and Ime Udoka’s pregame comments didn’t make it sound overly convincing that the 37-year-old will be ready — the Lakers suddenly become live to advance.
I had Los Angeles +2.5 Games against a healthy Houston team, as I believed splitting the opening two games of the series would give the Lakers a shot, with a Luka Dončić return in Game 4 looking like a possibility.
DraftKings now has the Rockets at -225 to win the series, while the Lakers are +185. Before Game 1, Houston was -600, LA was +425.
What’s next: Will home dominance continue?
Sunday Game 1s:
76ers (+12.5) at Celtics, 1 ET (ABC)
Suns (+14) at Thunder, 3:30 ET (ABC)
Magic (+9) at Pistons, 6:30 ET (NBC/Peacock)
Blazers (+11) at Spurs, 9 ET (NBC/Peacock)
📊 Model picks (Makinen via AI):
🥇 Best Bet #1: Under 212.5 — 76ers at Celtics
• Game 1 Under trend: 68.8%
• Boston trend: 19-4 Under in this spot
• Multiple scheduling + system triggers
🥈 Best Bet #2: Pistons -9 vs Magic
• Big favorite trend: 59.8% ATS
• Home Game 1: 69-27 SU
• Rest advantage system: 82-50-2 ATS
FWIW: Knicks -6.5 and the Under popped in the model for Saturday’s games, so that’s a good sign.
👉 Full Makinen analysis →
🎯 Contest update:
👉 KillerSports Playoff Challenge picks (after noon ET) →
FYI: Gill Alexander is off to a 3-0 start.
👉 NBA player prop projections →
Everyone knew the Lakers would be without Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves, but Houston’s game-day announcement that Kevin Durant was out (knee) moved the line from Rockets -5.5 to -2.5.
The Lakers — closing as a rare home underdog — took full advantage, rolling to a 107–98 win.
Why it matters: That result may have flipped the entire series.
Zach Cohen’s takeaway:
If Durant does miss Game 2 — and Ime Udoka’s pregame comments didn’t make it sound overly convincing that the 37-year-old will be ready — the Lakers suddenly become live to advance.
I had Los Angeles +2.5 Games against a healthy Houston team, as I believed splitting the opening two games of the series would give the Lakers a shot, with a Luka Dončić return in Game 4 looking like a possibility.
DraftKings now has the Rockets at -225 to win the series, while the Lakers are +185. Before Game 1, Houston was -600, LA was +425.
What’s next: Will home dominance continue?
Sunday Game 1s:
76ers (+12.5) at Celtics, 1 ET (ABC)
Suns (+14) at Thunder, 3:30 ET (ABC)
Magic (+9) at Pistons, 6:30 ET (NBC/Peacock)
Blazers (+11) at Spurs, 9 ET (NBC/Peacock)
📊 Model picks (Makinen via AI):
🥇 Best Bet #1: Under 212.5 — 76ers at Celtics
• Game 1 Under trend: 68.8%
• Boston trend: 19-4 Under in this spot
• Multiple scheduling + system triggers
🥈 Best Bet #2: Pistons -9 vs Magic
• Big favorite trend: 59.8% ATS
• Home Game 1: 69-27 SU
• Rest advantage system: 82-50-2 ATS
FWIW: Knicks -6.5 and the Under popped in the model for Saturday’s games, so that’s a good sign.
👉 Full Makinen analysis →
🎯 Contest update:
👉 KillerSports Playoff Challenge picks (after noon ET) →
FYI: Gill Alexander is off to a 3-0 start.
👉 NBA player prop projections →
🏒 NHL: Early surprises
The home teams didn’t fare as well on Day 1 of the NHL playoffs: 1-2.
Sunday slate:
• Kings (+233) at Avalanche (-265), 3 ET
• Canadiens (+172) at Lightning (-193), 5:45 ET
• Bruins (+142) at Sabres (-158), 7:30 ET
• Mammoth (+133) at Golden Knights (-145), 10 ET
👉 Makinen playoff systems →
👉 Jonathan Davis top plays later today →
Sunday slate:
• Kings (+233) at Avalanche (-265), 3 ET
• Canadiens (+172) at Lightning (-193), 5:45 ET
• Bruins (+142) at Sabres (-158), 7:30 ET
• Mammoth (+133) at Golden Knights (-145), 10 ET
👉 Makinen playoff systems →
👉 Jonathan Davis top plays later today →
🏈 NFL Draft: Market-moving news
The NFL Draft is Thursday — and we already got a shake-up.
The Giants agreed to trade disgruntled defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence to the Bengals in a deal that includes Cincinnati’s No. 10 pick.
New York now holds the No. 5 and No. 10 selections — a major shift at the top of the board.
Teams with multiple first-round picks:
• Jets: 2, 16
• Giants: 5, 10
• Browns: 6, 24
• Chiefs: 9, 29
• Dolphins: 11, 30
• Cowboys: 12, 20
Teams without a first-round pick:
Colts, Bengals, Jaguars, Broncos, Packers, Falcons
The Giants agreed to trade disgruntled defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence to the Bengals in a deal that includes Cincinnati’s No. 10 pick.
New York now holds the No. 5 and No. 10 selections — a major shift at the top of the board.
Teams with multiple first-round picks:
• Jets: 2, 16
• Giants: 5, 10
• Browns: 6, 24
• Chiefs: 9, 29
• Dolphins: 11, 30
• Cowboys: 12, 20
Teams without a first-round pick:
Colts, Bengals, Jaguars, Broncos, Packers, Falcons
🏈 Draft Pro: Turn the draft into a game
Think you can call all 32 picks?
• 6 points for exact player + pick
• 1 point for correct team
Create a “War Room” and compete live.
Perfect bracket = $1,000,000.
👉 Download Draft Pro →
• 6 points for exact player + pick
• 1 point for correct team
Create a “War Room” and compete live.
Perfect bracket = $1,000,000.
👉 Download Draft Pro →
⚾ MLB: Overs on the board
Greg Peterson is targeting offense with seven Overs today.
👉 Greg’s Best Bets →
👉 More MLB coverage →
👉 MLB props →
👉 Greg’s Best Bets →
👉 More MLB coverage →
👉 MLB props →
⚡ Quick Hits
🏁 NASCAR
Hamlin tops Makinen’s Kansas simulation.
👉 More NASCAR coverage →
👉 Simulation + odds hub →
🏇 Horse Racing
👉 Keeneland picks →
⚽ Soccer
👉 EPL picks →
Hamlin tops Makinen’s Kansas simulation.
👉 More NASCAR coverage →
👉 Simulation + odds hub →
🏇 Horse Racing
👉 Keeneland picks →
⚽ Soccer
👉 EPL picks →
