Advent Health 400 Predictions: Top 5 Picks and Best Long Shots:
Betting preview for NASCAR’s Advent Health 400 at Kansas
By Steve Makinen
Coming off another solid simulation at Bristol, where our projected winner finished second and we accurately pegged two top-3s, four top-5s and seven top-10s, we move on to Kansas for the next race on the NASCAR Cup Series schedule. Just like Bristol, Kansas Speedway boasts a handicap-ability grade of B, making it reasonably predictable by statistical methods. Our initial simulation shows a three-car breakaway with Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin and Christopher Bell in a near-dead heat for the top spot. Practice and qualifying on Saturday figures to jumble things up a bit, but I would expect one of those three drivers to be the eventual favorite, although Larson (2x) is the only one of the three who has won here in the past couple of years.
Usually, pure speed gets it done at Kansas, but there can be some havoc here, with the last four races showing an average of 3.0 cars per race being eliminated in accidents. My own track designation for Kansas is in a group called “Cookie Cutter Speedways,” based on the shape and the resemblance to several other venues built in the late 1990s and early 2000s. It does get quite racy at this track at times, so the races can be quite thrilling. Definitely worth a watch if you find yourself in front of the TV on Sunday afternoon.
Besides Larson’s active series-leading three wins here, only three other drivers have made multiple trips to Victory Lane at Kansas: Joey Logano, Denny Hamlin and Chase Elliott, the most recent winner here from fall. Perhaps the only other introductory tidbit you might want to consider regarding this week’s race is that it has been pushed up on the schedule about three weeks from its usual mid-May position. How will that affect the race? Well, Sunday’s temperatures call for low 60s, much lower than usual, which could benefit horsepower and downforce, making for a faster-paced event.
Before digging into what to look for statistically on Sunday, here’s a quick wrap-up of what happened last week at Bristol, and how our simulation projections have fared in terms of betting results to date through eight races.
Initial Bristol simulation winner: loser Blaney 2nd (-1 units) – NOW +1 units for the season
Final Bristol simulation winner: loser Blaney 2nd (-1 units) – NOW +28.5 units for the season
Final Bristol simulation top 2 drivers to win: two losers – total return -2 units – NOW +26.5 units for the season
Final simulation top 3 Bristol projections: two winners, one loser, Blaney +105, Larson +115 – total return +1.2 units – NOW +5.95 units for the season
Final simulation top 5 Bristol projections: four winners, one loser, Blaney -200, Larson -175, Briscoe +160, Reddick +135 – total return +3.95 units – Now +8.65 units for the season
Final simulation top 10 Bristol projections: three losers (Wallace, Bell, Cindric), seven winners, Blaney -550, Larson -500, Briscoe -165, Reddick -190, Hamlin -330, Gibbs -275, Hocevar -175 – total return +2.5 units – Now +10.4 units for the season
There are incredibly solid returns so far on the simulations for winners, top-3s and top-5s, and top-10s, especially when you consider the added vig put on NASCAR wagers by shops like DraftKings. Also, in looking back at 2025, we started pretty cold and really hit our stride at the quarter mark of the season, which we are approaching this week.
Now for my final personal picks, which are published each race day in the VSiN Email Newsletter…
My personal top 5 Bristol predictions: four winners, one loser – Blaney -200, Larson -175, Gibbs -105, Reddick +135 – total return +3.2 units – Now -4.7 units for the season
Top Bristol long shots to win: one winner, three losers – Gibbs +7 units – total return +4 units – Now +35 units for the season
Favorites to struggle at Bristol: Logano (7th), Keselowski (14th), Buescher (13th), Bowman (37th)– Now 23 for 28 for the season picking usual contending drivers to finish outside of the top 10!
Clearly, it remains a very strong start to the 2026 season, continuing right where we left off in November. We are on a 16 for the last 36 races in picking outright winners on our final simulations. Had you played all of these, you would be up +68 units! While we didn’t peg the outright winner at Bristol, Elliott, who came from our seventh spot, was one of my top underdogs to consider, and projected winner Blaney was second.
Looking ahead to Kansas now on Sunday, I have dug out the stats for the four races that have been run at this cookie-cutter speedway over the last two seasons. Typically, these tracks are all about speed and handling, and of late, avoiding wrecks. Of the simulation factors, recent momentum has stood out more than the others at Kansas. There is qualifying and practice on Saturday, and the former has proven to be a bit more important. That said, with what is currently a three-car breakaway at the top, I’d be surprised to see anyone other than that current tightly grouped top 3 on the projections wind up on top. Here are the stats for the last four races at Kansas for all active drivers that have raced here, with Kyle Larson winning twice in that span:
Average STARTING POSITION last four races at Kansas
1. Christopher Bell: 2.5
2. Kyle Larson: 4.75
3. Ty Gibbs: 5.5
4. Tyler Reddick: 8.75
5. Denny Hamlin: 9.5
…
32. Ryan Preece: 29.5
33. Brad Keselowski: 30.75
34. Ty Dillon: 31.33
35. Riley Herbst: 31.33
36. Cody Ware: 35.5
Average PRACTICE SPEED RANK last four races at Kansas
1. Tyler Reddick: 8.75
2. Kyle Larson: 9
3. William Byron: 9.5
4. Darrell Wallace: 10
5. Ty Gibbs: 11.25
…
32. Joey Logano: 28.75
33. Shane Van Gisbergen: 29
34. Riley Herbst: 29
35. Cody Ware: 31
36. Ryan Preece: 34
Average RUNNING POSITION last four races at Kansas
1. Christopher Bell: 5
2. Kyle Larson: 8.75
3. Denny Hamlin: 9
4. Chase Elliott: 9.75
5. Alex Bowman: 10.75
…
32. Ty Dillon: 28.33
33. Erik Jones: 28.33
34. AJ Allmendinger: 29.5
35. Riley Herbst: 31.67
36. Cody Ware: 35
Total LAPS LED last four races at Kansas
1. Kyle Larson: 285
2. Denny Hamlin: 233
3. Christopher Bell: 173
4. Ross Chastain: 95
5. Chris Buescher: 54
…
24. Noah Gragson: 0
24. Austin Cindric: 0
24. Ryan Preece: 0
24. Ricky Stenhouse: 0
24. Michael McDowell: 0
24. Austin Dillon: 0
24. Shane Van Gisbergen: 0
24. Cole Custer: 0
24. Corey Heim: 0
24. Erik Jones: 0
24. AJ Allmendinger: 0
24. Riley Herbst: 0
24. Cody Ware: 0
Average DRIVER RATING last four races at Kansas
1. Christopher Bell: 116.68
2. Denny Hamlin: 111.05
3. Kyle Larson: 110.325
4. Chase Elliott: 100.825
5. Chris Buescher: 96.525
…
32. AJ Allmendinger: 45.65
33. Ty Dillon: 44.8
34. Cole Custer: 39.5
35. Riley Herbst: 37.47
36. Cody Ware: 26.7
Most AVG LAPS RUN in TOP 15 last four races at Kansas
1. Christopher Bell: 256
2. Chase Elliott: 228.25
3. Denny Hamlin: 226
4. Alex Bowman: 223
5. Chris Buescher: 214
…
32. Erik Jones: 13.33
33. Corey Heim: 11
34. Riley Herbst: 8.33
35. Cole Custer: 7.5
36. Cody Ware: 6
Best AVERAGE FINISH last four races at Kansas
1. Christopher Bell: 4.5
2. Chase Elliott: 7
3. Kyle Larson: 8.5
4. Chris Buescher: 9
5. Ryan Blaney: 10.75
…
32. Carson Hocevar: 27.75
33. Austin Cindric: 28
34. Riley Herbst: 28
35. Cody Ware: 33.5
36. AJ Allmendinger: 37
With those stats in mind, my top-rated drivers at Kansas are, in order, Hamlin, Bell, Elliott, Larson, Blaney. In terms of Track Designation ratings, the top guys are Hamlin, Larson, Bell, Elliott, Briscoe. And finally, for recent ratings, the top 5 are Blaney, Reddick, Hamlin, Larson, Bell. All of it goes into the making of my initial simulation, which can be seen now on the NASCAR Hub at VSiN.com.
The final simulation will be made available Saturday afternoon after practice and qualifying, which is set for 4 p.m. ET. That said, having to make my predictions at this point (which could change a bit after P&Q), I would go with the following:
Top 5: Bell, Hamlin, Larson, Elliott, Blaney
Top underdogs to consider: Wallace, Gibbs, Buescher, Chastain, Bowman
Favorites to struggle: Logano, Cindric, Keselowski, Preece
The 267-lap event at Kansas is set for 2 p.m. ET on Sunday.
Be sure to visit VSiN.com for this week’s full INITIAL SIMULATION. This is where you’ll find the sims all season long. While there, you can click on driver links for season stats and recent results, plus get current odds, and much, much more.
