Betting Preview for Thursday Night Football
Two teams in the NFL’s most competitive division go head-to-head tonight for the second time this season.
VSiN.com senior editor Zach Cohen previews the Packers-Lions rematch (8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon). Detroit won Round 1 in Green Bay 24-14 on Nov. 3 as a 2.5-point favorite.
Last year, the Packers rolled into Ford Field and won 29-22 as 8.5-point underdogs. This Lions defense is definitely better than it was a year ago, but would it really shock you if it happened again? If not for Matt Eberflus’ bizarre late-game coaching last week, Chicago could have beat Detroit and changed the narrative heading into this week. You won’t see the same types of mistakes from the Green Bay coaching staff. In fact, I think Matt LaFleur will have his guys more prepared than the Lions here.
>>More analysis, plus a prediction from Zach.
Mike Somich, co-host of Ready, Set, Bet! on the weekends, took the Lions down on his latest power ratings:
The Lions now have 11 defensive players on injured reserve and have been forced to turn to other teams’ practice squads to fill holes. As the injuries piled up on Thanksgiving, the difference in the defense was noticeable. They kept the Bears in check early, but once they lost Malcolm Rodriguez at Linebacker and three defensive linemen, the Bears moved the ball at will.
The market seems to agree here as well. The Lions were six-point favorites at home against the Packers this week on the lookahead and now we are sitting at -3.5 and trending to -3. I made a two-point adjustment so I am closer to betting the Lions than the Packers and this would be a play for me if we get to -3 -110.
Here are a few nuggets from Steve Makinen’s trends and betting systems piece:
>Matt Lafleur boasts an impressive record of 13-5 SU and 15-3 ATS as an underdog of +3 to +7 points since 2019.
>Detroit is on 17-9 SU and 20-6 ATS run vs. teams with a winning record.
>Jared Goff is 13-5 SU and 14-4 ATS in divisional games since 2021.
Other TNF resources
>Check later this morning for Josh Appelbaum‘s NFL Sharp Report.
>Matchup page: ATS records and advanced stats.
>DraftKings/Circa Betting Splits: DK moved to Lions -3.5 late Wednesday.
>Prop Analyzer: And tune in today for VSiN’s human prop analyzer, John Hansen, host of Prop Points (2-3 p.m. ET).
>Injury Report: The Packers have ruled out cornerback Jaire Alexander (knee), receiver Romeo Doubs (concussion), linebacker Edgerrin Cooper (hamstring) and cornerback Corey Ballentine (knee). As Somich pointed out, the Lions’ injury report is too long to list here.
>NFL picks page (for VSiN Pro subscribers).
Everything we do on Week 14 is posted here, including Dave Tuley‘s takes on every game. Mr. Dog or Pass took a pass on Thursday’s dog. Plus Mitch Moss looks ahead to the Week 15 lines.
Conference championship previews
ICYMI: VSiN.com managing editor Adam Burke has posted his breakdowns and predictions for every title game. See links below.
Friday
Conference USA: Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State – 7 p.m. ET
Mountain West: UNLV at Boise State – 8 p.m. ET
AAC: Tulane at Army – 8 p.m. ET
Saturday
Big 12: Iowa State vs. Arizona State (Arlington) – Noon ET
MAC: Ohio vs. Miami (OH) (Detroit) – Noon ET
SEC: Georgia vs. Texas (Atlanta) – 4 p.m. ET
Sun Belt: Marshall at Louisiana – 7:30 p.m. ET
Big Ten: Penn State vs. Oregon (Indianapolis) – 8 p.m. ET
ACC: Clemson vs. SMU (Charlotte) – 8 p.m. ET
Everything we do on championship weekend is posted here, including Makinen’s Best Bets.
>DraftKings/Circa betting splits.
Today in college basketball
Greg Peterson has posted his Best Bets for today’s menu.
>Adam Burke’s top plays will be up later today.
Speaking of Omaha (Steaks), Creighton (+4) upset top-ranked Kansas 76-63 on Wednesday night.
Quick Hits
NBA: Zach Cohen will post his Best Bets later today on our NBA page.
NHL: Look for Jonathan Davis‘ picks by mid-morning on our NHL page. Bonus material: JD sent me some system matches for tonight’s games.
This is The VSiN Daily newsletter for Thursday, December 5. Sign up for this free email and get picks and insights delivered to your in-box every morning.
