The final five episodes of Circa Survivor: The Quest for $14.2 Million will be released Tuesday at 9 p.m. ET. What, you say? You haven’t watched the first five? You will find them on our YouTube page.
It’s all about the dogs and the Overs in the NFL preseason so far.
The records through 16 games (the Lions-Falcons was no-action): Underdogs are 10-4-2 straight up and 11-4-1 against the spread while the Over is 14-2, according to record-keeper Dave Tuley.
I expect this to be a hot topic on the VSiN airwaves today. But to get a sneak preview, I asked Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game (10-noon ET), for his quick thoughts:
I would think the sides will always skew underdog because who really can identify with precision how teams substitute in once games develop. So, lines on sides are inefficient to me by nature.
As for totals going Over, without analyzing it forensically, I’d say it’s an inevitable result of going from 4 to 3 preseason games, where starters play a bit longer, defenses play in soft zones by and large, two-minute drills favoring offenses that much more at this point in prep, and third- and fourth-string offenses probably have worn down third- and fourth-string defenses.
I just tabulated scoring by quarter league wide thus far:
152/256/127/223*
*one game they just stopped playing in the 4Q.
While scoring usually is higher in 2Q and 4Q, that’s pretty stark.
Also, new kickoff rules might’ve had an effect.
Makes sense to me. Let’s see if the market adjusts for Week 2, which opens Friday. >>Betting Splits.
Handicapping the CFB transfer portal
I caught up on my reading this weekend, specifically the 186-page VSiN College Football Betting Guide.
One of the annual pieces I look forward to is Steve Makinen’s stability ratings. Steve puts a weighted number on the head coach, the coordinators, the quarterback and returning starters at other positions to come up with a rating for each team. He then looks for matchups in Weeks 0-3 for opportunities when a stable team is playing an unstable team. In 13 years, he has never had a losing season betting on the mismatches.
Of course, a lot has changed in 13 years with the emergence of the transfer portal and NIL. So how has Steve adjusted?
A lot of the foundation of what is considered “stable” or not in college football has been shaken in recent years as teams, fans, bettors, and oddsmakers alike all wrestle with the impact of the transfer portal. I have also thought long and hard about the subject and have concluded over the last few years that instability is instability, regardless of the form in which it comes. To me, the position is of such importance that a transfer quarterback for a team, even if he has three years of starting experience somewhere else, I still consider him a NEW quarterback. So, how am I dealing with the transfer portal starters? I consider former starters at other schools acquired through the transfer portal at other positions as starters. I consider transfer QBs new.
Read Steve’s team-by-team analysis in the guide (Page 32). >>Download here.
3 added to Circa Invitational field
Matt Youmans, host of the Circa Friday Football Invitational show, has announced the first three invited contestants:
Paul Bovi: Professional bettor from Las Vegas; 2024 Circa Friday Football Invitational elite eight, Top 20 finish in Circa Million (2019).
Scott Pritchard: Professional bettor from Las Vegas; 2023 Circa Friday Football Invitational third-place finisher and 2024 CFFI elite eight.
Jeff Whitelaw: Professional bettor from Las Vegas; Sports Gambling Hall of Fame inductee 2025.
They join the seven automatic qualifiers in a field of 25 handicappers. >>Details on the contest.
Speaking of contests: Details on the Average Joe Contest will be announced in the next week or so. Same rules as the Circa Invitational, but open and free to everyone. First prize is a spot in next year’s Circa Invitational.
Also on the contest beat: The Circa Grandissimo is up to 14 entries at $100,000 a pop. Circa owner Derek Stevens guaranteed $1.5 million for the winner-take-all survivor contest, but it looks like he won’t need to cover that himself.
MLB Today
Greg Peterson must like today’s card because he has eight Best Bets.
Adam Burke, Steve Makinen and Josh Appelbaum will file their daily contributions later this morning.
Other MLB resources:
>Greg’s daily handicapped lines.
>Steve’s daily handicapped lines
Quick HIts
Golf: I checked in with VSiN golf analyst Wes Reynolds after one of his Best Bets, Tommy Fleetwood, faded on the back nine after leading the FedEx St. Jude Championship. Justin Rose finally beat J.J. Spaun on the third playoff hole to win.
Originally just with Spaun, which I should’ve done before the round since he was the one I recommended on Scott Seidenberg’s show on Saturday night, and it looked like it was going to be a 2-guy event with Scottie not making a charge. And then Rose wouldn’t stop making birdies late, so I had to put something on him just in case. Overall, ended up being a small loser with the placements.
Tennis: VSiN Pro subscribers should go to the tennis picks page for plays from Gill Alexander.
